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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, December 08, 2017

Employment Situation Report for November 2017

The Employment Situation Report for November2017 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +190,000
Actual: +228,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.1%
Actual: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 7.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.1887%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.55 [+0.1887%]. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 64 cents, or 2.5%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 5 cents to $22.24 [+0.2253%] in November.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from +18,000 to +38,000, and the change for October was revised down from +261,000 to +244,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 3,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 170,000 over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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Thursday, December 07, 2017

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 2, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 2, 2017:

Predicted: 240,000
Actual: 236,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (unrevised): 238,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 241,500
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From today's report:

"...Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. Claims taking process in Puerto Rico has still not returned to normal..."
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 1, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 1, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -5,600,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -37,700,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 448,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q3 2017 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the third quarter of 2017 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: +3.2%
Actual: +3.0%

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Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.2%

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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Tuesday, December 05, 2017

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2017:

Predicted: 59.0%
Actual: 57.4%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service categories include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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The Previous Month's NMI reading was 60.1%.

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From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 95th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

  •     "Domestic business is strong, with positive growth indicators for 2018 from both internal sources and client feedback."
    (Management of Companies and Support Services)

  •     "Construction labor continues to be constrained in the West."
    (Construction)

  •     "Steady; no material changes."
    (Finance and Insurance)

  •     "We continue to struggle with understanding the [potential] changes to the Affordable Care Act, and are trying to be flexible in how we respond. Also, Hurricane Maria has affected some of our pharmaceutical supplies."
    (Health Care and Social Assistance)

  •     "Mixed bag of goods for November 2017. Typical seasonal increases for specific braising cuts of beef as the holidays approach. Some volatility on produce items such as brussel sprouts. Expect cream to spike due to holiday season." (Accommodation and Food Services)

  •     "Business seems to be leveling off. Attribute this to the holiday season that is approaching."
    (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services)

  •     "Business is strong, but not as strong as Q3."
    (Retail Trade)

  •     "Bookings would suggest a strong run to the end of the year."
    (Wholesale Trade)


Click here to view the complete ISM report




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Monday, December 04, 2017

U.S. Factory Orders During October 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for October 2017:

Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: -0.1%


  • October 2017 New Orders: $479,600,000,000


The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): +1.7% ($479,900,000,000.)

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U.S. Factory Orders During October 2017
U.S. Factory Orders During October 2017

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Friday, December 01, 2017

Construction Spending During October 2017

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for October 2017:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Month: +0.3%.
     
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.9%.

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Construction Spending During October 2017
Construction Spending During October 2017

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Click here to view the full Census Bureau report



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ISM Manufacturing Index for November 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for November 2017:

Predicted: 58.4%
Actual: 58.2%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

The previous month's PMI reading was 58.7%.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 102nd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."
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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:



  •     "Continuing to see more orders for the next six to 12 months."
     (Chemical Products)

  •     "Strong sales through third and now fourth quarters. Backlog increasing, and capacity at suppliers tightening."
     (Machinery)

  •     "Business has leveled out but remains strong heading into the end of the year."
     (Computer and Electronic Products)

  •     "We are just coming off a record sales year. We expect to continue in 2018 robust activity."
     (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  •     "We are seeing steady, consistent demand for end of year. We usually see a slowdown, which we haven’t seen yet."
     (Fabricated Metal Products)

  •     "Overall industry demand remains strong. Continue to have a healthy backlog of orders. Local economy is also strong, with a fairly tight labor market."
     (Transportation Equipment)

  •     "Business is strong. Employment is tight. Supplier deliveries have lengthened. A few suppliers are still blaming Hurricane Harvey for the lead times."
     (Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products)

  •     "Strong season demand for products and continued requirements for uptime."
     (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

  •     "Currently, we have not experienced the typical seasonal slowdown toward the end of Q4. Could be that there is a lot of optimism in the American economy."
     (Plastics and Rubber Products)


Click here to view the complete ISM report


ISM Manufacturing Index History
ISM Manufacturing Index History



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