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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 26, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 26, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -8,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +27,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 436,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Employment Cost Index for Q2, 2019

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter of 2019 was released by The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.6%


  • Reading from previous quarter: +0.7%
     
  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +2.7%


The yellow-highlighter figure represents the seasonally adjusted, quarter-to-quarter change for the ECI, which is the Labor Department's broadest measure of employee-compensation costs, and includes wages, salaries and benefits.

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  • Wages and Salaries: +0.7%

  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +2.9% 

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  • Benefits: +0.5%

  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +2.3% 

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From the Labor Department website:


"...The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries..."

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Chart: Employment Cost Index - Q2, 2019 Update
Chart: Employment Cost Index - Q2, 2019 Update

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  • The ECI report for the third quarter of 2019 is scheduled for release on October 31, 2019.


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Tuesday, July 30, 2019

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2019

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2019:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars:  +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars +0.3% 

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.


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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.4%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2019

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July 2019) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 125.0
Actual: 135.7

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    Previous Month (revised): 124.3

    • Change from Previous Month: +9.171% (+11.4 points)
     
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    The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    From Today's Report:

    "...'After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.'..."

    Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

    • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

    When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

    Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

    The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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    Friday, July 26, 2019

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q2, 2019

    Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2019:

    Predicted: +1.9%
    Actual: +2.1%

    The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


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    The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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    Chart: GDP - Q2 2019 - First Estimate
    Chart: GDP - Q2 2019 - First Estimate
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    Thursday, July 25, 2019

    New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 20, 2019

    Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 20, 2019:

    Predicted: 219,000
    Actual: 206,000

    The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    • Previous Week (unrevised): 216,000
    • 4-Week Moving Average: 213,000
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    Wednesday, July 24, 2019

    New Home Sales During June 2019

    The June 2019 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

    Predicted: 660,000
    Actual New Home Sales: 646,000

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    • Change from One Month Previous: +7.0%

    • Change from One Year Previous: +4.5%

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    Median Price for a New Home during June 2019: $310,400

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    Average Price for a New Home during June 2019: $368,600


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    Inventory: 338,000 (6.3 months supply at current sales rate.)

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    Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

    The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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    Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 19, 2019

    The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 19, 2019 was released this morning:

    -- Change from Last Week: -10,800,000 Barrels

    -- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +40,100,000 Barrels

    -- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 445,000,000 Barrels

    Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

    The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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    Tuesday, July 23, 2019

    Existing Home Sales - June 2019

    The Existing Home Sales report for June 2019 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

    Predicted: 5,320,000
    Actual: 5,270,000

    •  Change from Previous Month: -1.7%

    •  Change from One Year Previous: -2.2%
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    Inventory: 1,930,000 (4.4 months supply)

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    The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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    Median Price for A Used Home During June 2019: $285,700

    Change from One Year Previous: +4.3%

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    Average Price for A Used Home During June 2019: $321,600

    Change from One Year Previous: +3.1%

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    From Today's Report (Clips):


    "...Existing-home sales weakened in June, as total sales saw a small decline after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. While two of the four major U.S. regions recorded minor sales jumps, the other two – the South and the West – experienced greater declines last month.

    Total existing-home sales, http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/existing_home_sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June. Sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018).

    'Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country,' said
    Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. Yun says the nation is in the midst of a housing shortage and much more inventory is needed. 'Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices,' he said.

    Yun said other factors could be contributing to the low number of sales. 'Either a strong pent-up demand will show in the upcoming months, or there is a lack of confidence that is keeping buyers from this major expenditure. It’s too soon to know how much of a pullback is related to the reduction in the homeowner tax incentive.'

    The
    median existing-home price for all housing types in June reached an all-time high of $285,700, up 4.3% from June 2018 ($273,800). June’s price increase marks the 88th straight month of year-over-year gains.

    Total housing inventory at the end of June increased to 1.93 million, up from 1.91 million existing-homes available for sale in May, but unchanged from the level of one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from the 4.3 month supply recorded in both May and in June 2018.

    Properties typically remained on the market for 27 days in June, up from 26 days in May and in June of 2018. Fifty-six percent of homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month.

    According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.80% in June, down from 4.07% in May. The average commitment rate across all of 2018 was 4.54%.

    'Historically, these rates are incredibly attractive,' said NAR President
    John Smaby, a second-generation Realtor® from Edina, Minnesota and broker at Edina Realty. 'Securing and locking in on a mortgage now – given the current, favorable conditions – is a decision that will pay off for years to come.'

    First-time buyers were responsible for 35% of sales in June, up from 32% the month prior and up from the 31% recorded in June 2018. NAR’s 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 2018 – revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 33%.

    As the share of first-time buyers rose, individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 10% of homes in June, down from 13% recorded in both May 2019 and June 2018. All-cash sales accounted for 16% of transactions in June, down from May and a year ago (19% and 22%, respectively).

    Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2% of sales in June, unchanged from May but down from 3% in June 2018. Less than 1% of June 2019 sales were short sales.
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    Monday, July 22, 2019

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June 2019

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June 2019:

    Predicted: 0.00
    Actual (CFNAI): -0.02

    The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

    • Production and income;
    • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
    • Personal consumption and housing; and
    • Sales, orders, and inventories.

    The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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    • Previous Month (revised): -0.03
    • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.26
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    Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles June 2019 Update
    Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles
    June 2019 Update

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    From Today's Report

    "...Index Points To Economic Growth Near Historical Trend In June

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May..."
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    Understanding The CFNAI:

    A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

    Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

    An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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    Wednesday, July 17, 2019

    Housing Starts During June 2019

    The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for June 2019:

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    Housing Starts:
    Predicted: 1,260,000
    Actual: 1,253,000

    Change From Previous Month: -0.9%
    Change From One Year Previous: +6.2%

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    Building Permits:
    Predicted: 1,300,000
    Actual: 1,220,000

    Change From Previous Month: -6.1%
    Change From One Year Previous: -6.6%

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    Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.



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    Tuesday, July 16, 2019

    Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During June 2019

    The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for June 2019 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

    Industrial Production:
    Predicted: +0.1%
    Actual: Unchanged

    Manufacturing:
    Predicted: +0.2%
    Actual: +0.4%

    The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

    Capacity Utilization Rate:
    Predicted: 78.2%
    Actual: 77.9

    The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

    The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    From today's report:

    "...Industrial production was unchanged in June, as increases for both manufacturing and mining offset a decline for utilities. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, its second consecutive quarterly decrease. In June, manufacturing output advanced 0.4 percent. An increase of nearly 3 percent for motor vehicles and parts contributed significantly to the gain in factory production; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent. The output of utilities fell 3.6 percent as milder-than-usual temperatures in June reduced the demand for air conditioning. The index for mining rose 0.2 percent. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 1.3 percent higher in June than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in June to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average..."

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    Friday, July 12, 2019

    Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2019

    The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2019 was released this morning:

    Predicted: +0.1%
    Actual: +0.1%

    Change from 12 months previous:  +1.7%

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    Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

    Predicted: +0.2%
    Actual:  Unchanged

    Change from 12 months previous:  +2.1%

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    The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

    Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

    The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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    Thursday, July 11, 2019

    New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 6, 2019

    Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 6, 2019:

    Predicted: 220,000
    Actual: 209,000

    The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    • Previous Week (revised): 222,000
    • 4-Week Moving Average: 219,250
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    Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2019

    Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2019:

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    Predicted: +0.0%
    Actual: +0.1% 

    (Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%)

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    Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

    Predicted: +0.2%
    Actual: +0.3%

    (Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

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    The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

    The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    General categories that constitute the CPI are:

    • Healthcare
    • Housing
    • Clothing
    • Communications
    • Education
    • Transportation
    • Food and Beverages
    • Recreation
    • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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    Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - June 2019 Update
    Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - June 2019 Update

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    Wednesday, July 10, 2019

    Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 5, 2019

    The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 5, 2019 was released this morning:

    -- Change from Last Week: -9,500,000 Barrels

    -- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +53,700,000 Barrels

    -- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 459,000,000 Barrels

    Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

    The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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      Tuesday, July 09, 2019

      Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2019

      The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2019 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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      Job Openings

      Predicted: 7,400,000
      Actual:    7,323,000

      • Previous Month (revised): 7,372,000

      • One Year Previous: 7,126,000

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      Hires: 5,725,000

      Total Separations: 5,495,000

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      The above, yellow-highlighted percentage represents the estimated number of job openings in the United States during the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      Here's how the Labor Department defines Total Separations:

      "Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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      Chart: Job Openings, Hires and Separations - May 2019 Update
      Chart: Job Openings, Hires and Separations - May 2019 Update

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      NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June 2019

      The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for June 2019:

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      Predicted: 104.0
      Actual: 103.3

      • Change from Previous Month: -1.619% (-1.7 points)
      • Change from 12 Months Previous: -3.638% (-3.9 points)

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      • The previous month's SBOI reading was 105.0

      • The June 2018 SBOI reading was 107.2

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      Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June 2019 Update
      Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June 2019 Update

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      From Today's Report:


      "...America’s small business owners’ optimism took a modest downturn in June, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, slipping 1.7 points to 103.3. While optimism remains at historically high levels, the June figure reverses the gain posted in May, with six components falling, three improving, and one unchanged. The Uncertainty Index rose substantially, increasing seven points to the highest level since March 2017.

      'Last month, small business owners curbed spending, sales expectations and profits both fell, and the outlook for expansion dampened. When you add difficulty finding qualified workers and harmful state level laws and regulations, you’re left with a volatile mix where uncertainty has increased to levels not seen in more than two years,' said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan.

      Both capital spending plans and reports of actual spending fell in June, reversing last month’s gains. The inventory component strengthened in June with owners saying existing inventory stocks were lean and planning to add to them. Sales and earnings trends softened, while expected credit conditions remained favorable.  More owners expect credit conditions to tighten rather than ease by a two-to-one margin, with most expecting no change.

      'As expectations for sales gains and the general business environment faded, uncertainty levels increased,' said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. 'Still, job openings and plans to create jobs remain historically very strong, and while it’s not as ‘hot’ as May, Main Street is still running strong.'

      Twenty-six percent of owners plan capital outlays in the next few months, down four points, and an indication there is more reluctance to make major spending commitments when the future becomes less certain. Fifty-four percent reported capital outlays, down 10 points. Of those making expenditures, 40 percent reported spending on new equipment (down four points), 22 percent acquired vehicles (down seven points), and 12 percent improved or expanded facilities (down seven points).

      The net percent of owners reporting inventory increases fell two points to a net zero percent, indicating no further building in inventory stocks in June. The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as 'too low' rose four points to a net zero percent, overall balance.  Major imbalances reported in May have been resolved in most industries with the exception of manufacturing (18 percent too large, five percent too low) and agriculture (eight percent too large, 14 percent too low). The net percent of owners planning to expand inventory holdings did increase one point to a net three percent, a solid number.

      A net seven percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down two percentage points but a very solid reading. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell six points to a net 17 percent of owners. Excluding the government shutdown earlier this year, this is the weakest reading since September 2017.

      'Contextually, owners expecting higher real sales volumes averaged a net negative three percent in the 12 months leading up to November 2016, making the current reading look relatively good, but not as good as the 31 percent reading in May of last year,' said Dunkelberg. 'The economy is still advancing at a solid pace, but it is expected to be a slower pace than the first quarter.'

      The frequency of reports of positive profit trends slipped six points to a net negative seven percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements. Twenty-seven percent of those reporting weaker profits blamed sales (down three points), 12 percent blamed labor costs (up five points), 11 percent cited materials costs, and nine percent cited lower selling prices (down two points).

      Three percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, unchanged and historically very low.  Twenty-nine percent reported all credit needs met (down five points) and 55 percent said they were not interested in a loan, up one point.  A record low two percent reported their last loan was harder to get than the previous one. Two percent reported that financing was their top business problem (unchanged) compared to 21 percent citing the availability of qualified labor, 18 percent citing taxes, 13 percent regulations and red tape.

      As reported in the June NFIB Jobs Report, small business owners added a net addition of 0.21 workers per firm, with 21 percent citing the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem. Fifty-eight percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire employees, down four points from last month, but 50 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill..."

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      • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
      • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
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      Friday, July 05, 2019

      Employment Situation Report for June 2019

      The Employment Situation Report for June 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

      Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
      Predicted: +165,000
      Actual: +224,000


      U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
      Actual: 3.7%
      Previous Month: 3.6%
      12 Months Previous: 4.0%

      U-6 Unemployment Rate*
      Actual: 7.2%
      Previous Month: 7.1%
      12 Months Previous: 7.8%

      Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: +0.216% (+$0.06)

      Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
      Predicted: +3.2%
      Actual: +3.142% (+$0.85)

      Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
      Actual: +0.215% (+$2.06)


      Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
      Actual: +2.843% (+$26.53)

      Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%
      Previous Month: 62.8%
      12 Months Previous: 62.9%

      Average Workweek
      Predicted: 34.5 hours
      Actual: 34.4 hours

      Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

      The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      From today's report:

      "...
      In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents [+0.216%] to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by [+3.142%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents [+0.171%] to $23.43 in June.

      The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down from +224,000 to +216,000, and the change for May was revised down from +75,000 to +72,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 11,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged
      171,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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       * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

      "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


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      Monday, July 01, 2019

      ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2019

      Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for June 2019:

      Predicted: 51.1%
      Actual: 51.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

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      Previous month: 52.1%

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      Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

      The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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      From Today's Report:

      "...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June, and the overall economy grew for the 122ND consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."
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      The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:



      •     'China tariffs and pending Mexico tariffs are wreaking havoc with supply chains and costs. The situation is crazy, driving a huge amount of work [and] costs, as well as potential supply disruptions.'
         (Computer + Electronic Products)
           
         
      •     'Tariffs are causing an increase in cost of goods, meaning U.S. consumers are paying more for products.'
         (Chemical Products)

      •     'Demand for the remainder of 2019 has softened significantly, due to issues in the aerospace industry. The 2020 outlook is looking stronger. Overall, state and local economies remain strong. Recruiting for open positions still requires time to find the right candidates.'
         (Transportation Equipment)

      •     'Global demand remains very strong. [We] shifted shipments to China from our U.S. plants to our Canadian and European plants because of tariffs.'
         (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

      •     'Tariffs continue to be a challenge. We are concerned about the implementation of Mexican tariffs and the cost pressures it will have on our Latin American business.'
         (Petroleum + Coal Products)

      •     'Tariffs continue to adversely impact decisions and forecasting. Our increasing fear is that current trends will weaken the global economy, influencing our ability to grow in 2020 and beyond.'     (Fabricated Metal Products)

      •     'A late planting season has caused a slowdown in our agricultural business. Seeing higher prices due to tariffs and tariff-related supply chain issues.'
         (Machinery)

      •     'Business is still strong. Pricing on raw materials has stabilized.'
         (Plastics + Rubber Products)

      •     'Business has slowed in the last 30 to 60 days. The last 30 days have tracked 4 percent below plan, but still 6 to 8 percent above the previous year to date.'
         (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

      •     'Weather in various markets across the country has improved month over month, which has positively affected our daily output. If the trend continues, we will have to replenish [at] an increased month-over-month rate.'
         (Wood Products)

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      ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History - June 2019 Update
      ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History - June 2019 Update

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