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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 19, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  April 19, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +5,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +30,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 460,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Friday, April 19, 2019

Housing Starts During March 2019

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for March 2019:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,230,000
Actual: 1,139,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.3%
Change From One Year Previous: -14.2%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,300,000
Actual: 1,269,000

Change From Previous Month: -1.7%
Change From One Year Previous: -7.8%

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.



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Chart: Housing Starts - March 2019 Update
Chart: Housing Starts - March 2019 Update

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Thursday, April 18, 2019

Leading Economic Index for March 2019

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2019 this morning:

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Index for March: 111.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3587% (+0.4 point)

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  • Index for February 2019: 111.5 

  • Index for January 2019: 111.4

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - March 2019 Update
Chart: Leading Economic Index - March 2019 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2 percent by year end.'..."

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for March 2019

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2019:

Predicted: +0.8%
Actual: +1.568% (+$7,938,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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-- Estimated Retail Sales During March 2019: $514,062,000,000

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.622% (+$17,967,000,000)

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Chart: Retail Sales - March 2019 Update
Chart: Retail Sales - March 2019 Update

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 13, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 13, 2019:

Predicted: 206,000
Actual: 192,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 197,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 201,250
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 From Today's Report:


"...This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 6, 1969 when it was 182,000..."

"...This is the lowest level for [the 4-week moving average]  since November 1, 1969 when it was 200,500..."

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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 12, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  April 12, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +27,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 455,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During March 2019

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for March 2019 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.1%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: Unchanged

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 79.1%
Actual: 78.8

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February; for the first quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.3 percent at an annual rate. Manufacturing production was unchanged in March after declining in both January and February. The index for utilities rose 0.2 percent, while mining output moved down 0.8 percent. At 110.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.8 percent higher in March than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in March to 78.8 percent, a rate that is 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average..."

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Friday, April 12, 2019

Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2019

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2019:

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: Unchanged

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Export Prices
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.7%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.6%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Thursday, April 11, 2019

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 6, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 6, 2019:

Predicted: 211,000
Actual: 196,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 204,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 207,000
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 From Today's Report:


"...This is the lowest level for initial claims since October 4, 1969 when it was 193,000..."

"...This is the lowest level for [the 4-week moving average] since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500..."

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2019

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2019 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.2%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual:  Unchanged

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.0%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 5, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  April 5, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: +7,000,000

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +27,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 456,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2019:

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Predicted: +0.3
Actual: +0.4% 

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - March 2019 Update
Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - March 2019 Update

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Friday, April 05, 2019

Employment Situation Report for March 2019

The Employment Situation Report for March 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +170,000
Actual: +196,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Month: 7.3%
12 Months Previous: 7.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1446% (+$0.04)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.4%
Actual: +3.204% (+$0.86)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.436% (+$4.15)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.204% (+$29.67)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.0%
Previous Month: 63.2%
12 Months Previous: 62.9%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $27.70
[+0.1446%], following a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by [$0.86, or +3.204%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $23.24 [+0.259%] in March.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


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Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 29, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  March 29, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: +7,200,000

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +24,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 449,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Monday, April 01, 2019

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for February 2019

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February 2019:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.1988% (-$1,008,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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-- Estimated Retail Sales During February 2019: $505,969,000,000

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.241% (+$11,090,000,000)

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