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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 24, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 24, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -36,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.4

  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.4%
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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5
  • Actual: +0.5%
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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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CHART: Month-On-Month Change In Consumer Spending May 2022 Update

 CHART: Month-On-Month Change In
Consumer Spending
May 2022 Update
 
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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.6% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +1.5%

  • Actual: -1.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


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From Today's Report:

"...Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income increased $247.2 billion (revised) in the first quarter to a level of $21.26 trillion. In the fourth quarter, personal income increased $186.2 billion. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits. In the first quarter, government assistance payments in the form of social benefits to households decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or continued to taper off.


Disposable personal income decreased $58.8 billion (revised), or 1.3 percent, in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $72.4 billion, or 1.6%, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 7.8% (revised), compared with a decrease of 4.5%. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in the first quarter (revised), compared with $1.45 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6% (revised) in the first quarter, compared with 7.9% in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate

CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate
 
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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 99.0
  • Actual: 98.7

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Previous Month (revised): 103.2

  • Change from Previous Month: -4.36% (-4.5 points)
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May -- and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7).

'Consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month in June,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'While the Present Situation Index was relatively unchanged, the Expectations Index continued its recent downward trajectory -- falling to its lowest point in nearly a decade. Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by year-end.'

'Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady -- but intentions have cooled since the start of the year and this trend is likely to continue as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Meanwhile, vacation plans softened further as rising prices took their toll. Looking ahead over the next six months, consumer spending and economic growth are likely to continue facing strong headwinds from further inflation and rate hikes.'
..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.


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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - June 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2022 Update


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Saturday, June 25, 2022

June 24, 2022 Stock Market Bear | Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index held firm in the bear market zone, while the DJIA and S&P 500 remained in correction.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.4% (-5,298.97 points)

-- NASDAQ Composite: -27.71% (-4,449.82 points)

-- S&P 500: -18.45% (-884.82 points)

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CHART: S & P 500 Index - June 24, 2022 UPDATE

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Friday, June 24, 2022

New Home Sales During May 2022

The May 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 600,000
  • Actual New Home Sales: 696,000

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  • Change from One Month Previous: +67,000 units (+10.652%)

  • Change from One Year Previous: -44,000 units (-5.95%)


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Median Price for a New Home
during May 2022: $449,000 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
during May 2022: $511,400

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Inventory: 444,000 (7.7 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales - May 2022 Update

CHART: New Home Sales - May 2022 Update


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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for June 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for June 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 51.0
  • Actual: 50.0
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  • Change from Previous Month: -14.38% (-8.4 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -41.52% (-35.5 points)

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  • Final ICS Reading for May 2022: 58.4

  • Final ICS Reading for June 2021: 85.5

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From today's report:

"...The final June reading confirmed the early-June decline in consumer sentiment, settling 0.2 Index points below the preliminary reading and 14.4% below May for the lowest reading on record. Consumers across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stockholding and homeownership status all posted large declines. About 79% of consumers expected bad times in the year ahead for business conditions, the highest since 2009. Inflation continued to be of paramount concern to consumers; 47% of consumers blamed inflation for eroding their living standards, just one point shy of the all-time high last reached during the Great Recession.

Since the preliminary reading, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, exceeding the 50 basis point hike that had been previously telegraphed. The final June reading of the median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.3%, little changed from mid-month or the preceding four months. In contrast, long run expectations receded from its mid-month reading of 3.3% and settled at 3.1%, back within the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the past 10 months. Consumers also expressed the highest level of uncertainty over long-run inflation since 1991, continuing a sharp increase that began in 2021..."

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CHART: Inflation Uncertainty As Estimated by the Range of the Middle 50% in Inflation Expectations

CHART: Inflation Uncertainty As Estimated
by the Range of the Middle 50%
in Inflation Expectations


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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Thursday, June 23, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 18, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 18, 2022:

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Predicted: 230,000

  • Actual: 229,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 231,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 223,500

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From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9 percent for the week ending June 11, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 11 was 1,315,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,312,000 to 1,310,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,310,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 3, 1970 when it was 1,280,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,317,500 to 1,317,000..."


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Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Existing Home Sales During May 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for May 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 5,400,000
Actual: 5,410,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -3.39% (-190,000 homes)

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -8.61% (-510,000 homes)
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Inventory: 1,160,000 (2.6 months supply; -4.1% year-on-year.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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  • Median Price During May 2022: $407,600 (New Record-High)

  • Price Change from One Year Previous: +14.82% (+$52,600)


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From Today's Report:

"...'Home sales have essentially returned to the levels seen in 2019 – prior to the pandemic – after two years of gangbuster performance,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Also, the market movements of single-family and condominium sales are nearly equal, possibly implying that the preference towards suburban living over city life that had been present over the past two years is fading with a return to pre-pandemic conditions.'

'Further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in
mortgage rates this year,' Yun added. 'Nonetheless, homes priced appropriately are selling quickly and inventory levels still need to rise substantially -- almost doubling -- to cool home price appreciation and provide more options for home buyers.'


Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days in May, down from 17 days in April and 17 days in May 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in May 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions in May, down from 26% in April and up from 23% recorded in May 2021.

Distressed sales --
foreclosures and short sales -- represented less than 1% of sales in May, essentially unchanged from April 2022 and May 2021.

Realtor.com®'s Market Trends Report(link is external) in May shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+45.9%), Nashville (+32.5%), and Orlando (+32.4%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+14.7 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+12.3 percentage points) and Phoenix (+11.6 percentage points)
..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales During May 2022
INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
May 2022 UPDATE


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Friday, June 17, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 11, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 11, 2022:

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Predicted: 225,000

  • Actual: 229,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 232,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 218,500

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From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9 percent for the week ending June 4, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 4 was 1,312,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 3,000 from 1,306,000 to 1,309,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,317,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 10, 1970 when it was 1,310,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 1,317,500 to 1,318,250..."


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Housing Starts During May 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May 2022:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,600,000
Actual: 1,549,000

Change From Previous Month: -14.42% (-261,000 New Units)

  • Change From One Year Previous: -3.49% (-56,000 New Units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,700,000
Actual: 1,695,000

Change From Previous Month: -7.021% (-128,000 New Permits)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +0.237%  (+4,000 New Permits)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


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CHART: Housing Starts + Building Permits + Completions May 2022 Update

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
May 2022 Update

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Thursday, June 16, 2022

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for May 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for May 2022:

Predicted: FLAT
  • Actual: -0.267% (-$1,800,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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  • Estimated Retail Sales During May 2022: $672,874,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.09% (+$50,351,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - May 2022 Update
CHART: Retail Sales - May 2022 Update
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