.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, March 31, 2022

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.3

  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Predicted: Flat
  • Actual: +0.5%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

=====================


CHART: Changes In Consumer Spending - February 2022 Update

CHART: Changes In Consumer Spending
February 2022 Update

=====================

=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.6% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +6.4%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.4%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +5.4%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 25, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 25, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -91,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 409,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0
  • Actual: 107.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 105.7

  • Change from Previous Month: +1.419% (+1.5 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence was up slightly in March after declines in February and January,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index rose substantially, suggesting economic growth continued into late Q1. Expectations, on the other hand, weakened further with consumers citing rising prices, especially at the gas pump, and the war in Ukraine as factors. Meanwhile, purchasing intentions for big-ticket items like automobiles have softened somewhat over the past few months as expectations for interest rates have risen.'

'Nevertheless, consumer confidence continues to be supported by strong employment growth and thus has been holding up remarkably well despite geopolitical uncertainties and expectations for
inflation over the next 12 months reaching 7.9 percent -- an all -- time high. However, these headwinds are expected to persist in the short term and may potentially dampen confidence as well as cool spending further in the months ahead.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.


================ 

 
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - March 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
March 2022 Update

 ================

================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February 2022

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for February 2022 was released by the Labor Department this morning:


=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 11,200,000
Actual:    11,266,000

  • Previous Month (revised): 11,283,000

  • One Year Previous: 7,860,000

  • Change from one year previous: +43.333% (+3,406,000)


=============


Hires: 6,689,000

-----------

Quits: 4,352,000


-----------

Layoffs + Discharges: 1,386,000


-----------

Total Separations §: 6,092,000


=============


 
CHART: Job Openings Rate - February 2022 Update

CHART: Job Openings Rate
February 2022 Update

 =============

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

=============


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for March 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for March 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0
  • Actual: 59.4
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -5.414% (-3.4 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -30.035% (-25.5 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for February 2022: 62.8

  • Final ICS Reading for March 2021: 84.9

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer Sentiment remained largely unchanged in late March at the same diminished level recorded at mid month. Inflation has been the primary cause of rising pessimism, with an expected year-ahead inflation rate at 5.4%, the highest since November 1981. Inflation was mentioned throughout the survey, whether the questions referred to personal finances, prospects for the economy, or assessments of buying conditions. When asked to explain changes in their finances in their own words, more consumers mentioned reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past fifty years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008. Moreover, 32% of all consumers expected their overall financial position to worsen in the year ahead, the highest recorded level since the surveys started in the mid-1940s. The combination of rising prices and less positive income expectations meant that half of all households anticipated declines in inflation-adjusted incomes in the year ahead. The sole area of the economy about which consumers were still optimistic was the strong job market. Consumers anticipated in March that during the year ahead it was more likely that the unemployment rate would post further declines than increases (30% versus 24%).

Strong job growth will continue to put upward pressures on wages, resulting in higher income and stronger job prospects. This strength will then act to expand consumer demand and ultimately lead to another cycle of price and wage increases. These factors represent the necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for the development of inflationary psychology as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Prevention of inflationary psychology is much less costly before it becomes ingrained in the economic behavior of consumers and firms. Confidence that economic policies will resolve the problem is essential. Unfortunately, half of all consumers unfavorably assessed current policies, more than three times the 16% who rated them favorably. Making the situation even more difficult, policy makers need to take account of two unusual sources of economic uncertainty, one rather minor (the new covid variant), and a major source of continued economic disruption (the Russian invasion of Ukraine).
.."

=========


CHART: Expected Change In Financial Situation In A Year

CHART: Expected Change In
Financial Situation In A Year

 =========



The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========


=========


Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, March 24, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 19, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 19, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

  • Actual: 187,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 215,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 211,750

====================

From Today's Report

"...In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 6, 1969 when it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 223,000 to 223,250.


The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending March 12, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 12 was 1,350,000, a decrease of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since January 3, 1970 when it was 1,332,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,419,000 to 1,417,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,431,500, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since February 28, 1970 when it was 1,421,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,463,000 to 1,462,500..."


====================


====================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 18, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 18, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -89,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 413,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

New Home Sales During February 2022

The February 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Predicted: 800,000
  • Actual New Home Sales: 772,000

------------------------------------------------------

  • Change from One Month Previous: -16,000 units (-2.03%)

  • Change from One Year Previous: -51,000 units (-6.197%)


------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
during February 2022: $400,600
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
during February 2022: $511,000 (New Record High)

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 407,000 (6.3 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================


================================


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

================================

 

Labels: , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Saturday, March 19, 2022

Leading Economic Index for February 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for February 2022: 119.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: +0.2%
  • Actual: +0.335% (+0.4 point)

==============

  • LEI for January 2022: 119.5

  • LEI for December 2021: 120.1

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index - February 2022 Update

CHART: Leading Economic Index
February 2022 Update

  ==============
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth - February 2022 Update

 CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth
February 2022 Update
 
 ==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in February to 119.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in January and a 0.8 percent increase in December.

'The US LEI rose slightly in February, partially reversing January’s decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'However, the latest results do not reflect the full impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could lower the trajectory for the US LEI and signal slower-than-anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year. The global economic impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices -- coupled with rising interest rates, existing labor shortages, and high
inflation -- all pose headwinds to US economic growth. While the Omicron wave and its economic impact waned in recent months, the potential for new COVID-19 variants remains. Amid these risks, The Conference Board revised its growth projection for the US economy down to 3.0 percent year-over-year GDP growth in 2022 -- still well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent'..."

==============
 

Labels: , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, March 18, 2022

Existing Home Sales During February 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for February 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 6,000,000
Actual: 6,020,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -7.242% (-470,000 homes)

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -2.431% (-150,000 homes)
==========

Inventory: 870,000 (1.7 months supply)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for A Used Home During February 2022: $357,300

Change from One Year Previous: +15.035% (+$46,700)

---------

Average Price for A Used Home During February 2022: $370,700

Change from One Year Previous: +8.36% (+$28,600)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========


==========

From Today's Report:


"...'Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,' said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. 'Some who had previously qualified at a 3% mortgage rate are no longer able to buy at the 4% rate.

'Monthly payments have risen by 28% from one year ago – which interestingly is not a part of the consumer price index – and the market remains swift with multiple offers still being recorded on most properties.'


Yun notes that rising rates and escalating prices have prevented many consumers from making a purchase.

'The sharp jump in
mortgage rates and increasing inflation is taking a heavy toll on consumers' savings,' he said. 'However, I expect the pace of price appreciation to slow as demand cools and as supply improves somewhat due to more home construction.'

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.76% in February, up from 3.45% in January. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

Realtor.com®'s Market Trends Report in February shows that the greatest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Las Vegas (+39.6%), Miami (+31.6%) and Tampa (+31.5%). Austin posted the highest growth in the share of homes which had their prices reduced compared to last year (+3.3 percentage points), followed by Milwaukee (+2.1 percentage points), Pittsburgh and Baltimore (+1.4 percentage points each).
..'"

==================


==================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Housing Starts During February 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for February 2022:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,700,000
Actual: 1,769,000

Change From Previous Month: +6.76% (+112,000 New Units)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +22.25% (+322,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,800,000
Actual: 1,859,000

Change From Previous Month: -1.9% (-36,000 New Permits)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +7.71%  (+133,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


=================

 
CHART: Housing Starts - February 2022 Update

 CHART: Housing Starts
February 2022 Update
 
=================


================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 12, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 12, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

  • Actual: 214,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 229,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 223,000

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending March 5, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 5 was 1,419,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since February 21, 1970 when it was 1,412,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 1,494,000 to 1,490,000. The 4 -week moving average was 1,463,000, a decrease of 42,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 1970 when it was 1,456,750. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,000 from 1,506,500 to 1,505,500.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 26 were in Rhode Island (2.7), California (2.6), Alaska (2.4), New Jersey (2.4), Massachusetts (2.3), Minnesota (2.3), New York (2.3), Illinois (2.1), Connecticut (2.0), Georgia (1.9) and Montana (1.9).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 5 were in New York (+16,157), California (+5,470), Kentucky (+3,148), New Jersey (+2,381), and Ohio (+1,117), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-2,315), Pennsylvania (-2,130), Missouri (-1,378), Tennessee (-1,356), and Rhode Island (-1,224)..."


====================


====================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for February 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February 2022:

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual: +0.307% (+$2,011,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Estimated Retail Sales During February 2022: $662,417,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +17.617% (+$98,574,000,000)

=================
 

CHART: Retail Sales - February 2022 Update

CHART: Retail Sales - February 2022 Update

=================

================= 
 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2022

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2022:

===============

Import Prices
Predicted: +1.5%
Actual: +1.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +10.9%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +2.8%
Actual: +3.0%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +16.6%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===============


From Today's Report:

"...Imports:

Fuel Imports: Import fuel prices advanced 6.9 percent in February, after increasing 7.7 percent the previous month. Higher petroleum prices more than offset a decrease in natural gas prices. Prices for import fuel rose 53.0 percent for the year ended in February. The price index for import petroleum increased 8.1 percent in February following a 7.9-percent rise in January. The February advance was the largest monthly increase for the index since October 2021. Import petroleum prices increased 52.8 percent over the past year. In contrast, natural gas prices declined 10.0 percent in February, after rising 6.8 percent in January and decreasing 10.5 percent in December. Despite recent drops, the index advanced 61.6 percent from February 2021 to February 2022.


Exports:

U.S. export prices rose 3.0 percent in February, after a 2.8-percent advance the previous month. The February increase was the largest monthly rise since 1-month percent changes were first published in January 1989. Higher prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports in February contributed to the overall advance in U.S. export prices. Prices for U.S. exports increased 16.6 percent for the year ended in February..."

===============


===============

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.9%
Actual: +0.8%

Change from 12 months previous:  +10.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +6.6%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

==============

 
CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12 Month Percent Changes - February 2022 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index | Final Demand
(PPI-FD) 12 Month Percent Changes
February 2022 Update

 ==============


Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, March 11, 2022

Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for March 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for March 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 70.0
  • Actual: 59.7
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -4.936% (-3.1 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -29.682% (-25.2 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for February 2022: 62.8

  • Final ICS Reading for March 2021: 84.9

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer Sentiment continued to decline due to falling inflation-adjusted incomes, recently accelerated by rising fuel prices as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The year-ahead expected inflation rate rose to its highest level since 1981, and expected gas prices posted their largest monthly upward surge in decades. Personal finances were expected to worsen in the year ahead by the largest proportion since the surveys started in the mid-1940s. Consumers held very negative prospects for the economy, with the sole exception of the job market. Consumers were slightly more likely to anticipate declines rather than increases in the national unemployment rate. This underlying strength in jobs comes at the cost of pushing inflation even higher due to unrelenting pressures on aggregate demand and supply lines. The persistent strength in demand was a critical factor that shaped the last inflationary age from 1965 to 1982, with stagflation peaking only near its end. Current expectations are consistent with heightened pressures on wages to meet the continued growth in demand. Like the game of musical chairs, everyone continues racing around the circle of rising prices and higher wages. Although everyone knows the game will end, everyone still wants to obtain the highest income possible before they exit. The game is moderated by fiscal and monetary policies, which now favor increased federal spending and full employment over price stability, enabling ever more rounds of the game.

The greatest source of uncertainty is undoubtedly inflation and the potential impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the March survey, 24% of all respondents spontaneously mentioned the Ukraine invasion in response to questions about the economic outlook. The impact of this recognition was associated with a drop of 13.2 Index points in the Index of Consumer Expectations across all households. The difference was much larger for those who held higher inflation expectations: the difference was 33.5 Index-points on the Expectations Index for those who expected under 5% compared with over 5%.
.."

=========

 
Expected Change in Real Income During the Next Year

 Expected Change in Real Income
During the Next Year
 
 =========



The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========


=========


Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, March 10, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 5, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 5, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

  • Actual: 227,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 216,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 231,250

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.1 percent for the week ending February 26, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 26 was 1,494,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 1,476,000 to 1,469,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,506,500, a decrease of 31,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 28, 1970 when it was 1,483,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,750 from 1,539,500 to 1,537,750.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 19 were in Alaska (2.4), California (2.4), Illinois (2.4), New Jersey (2.4), Rhode Island (2.4), Minnesota (2.3), Massachusetts (2.2), New York (2.2), Michigan (1.8), Montana (1.8), and Pennsylvania (1.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 26 were in Massachusetts (+3,201), Rhode Island (+1,040), District of Columbia (+995), Nevada (+689), and Kansas (+587), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-9,161), California (-5,412), Florida (-2,182), Ohio (-2,098), and Illinois (-1,777)..."


====================


====================

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2022:


=========================================

CPI During February 2022: 283.716

=========================================


Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +0.913% (+2.568 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.871% (+20.702 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During February 2021: 263.014

=========================================

 


=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI) 12 Month Percent Change - February 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
12 Month Percent Change
February 2022 Update

=========================================


Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 4, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 4, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -86,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 411,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2022

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2022 was released by the Labor Department this morning:


=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 11,000,000
Actual:    11,263,000

  • Previous Month (revised): 11,448,000

  • One Year Previous: 7,232,000

  • Change from one year previous: +55.738% (+4,031,000)


=============

Hires: 6,457,000

Toal Hires During 2021: 75,550,000  

-----------

Quits: 4,252,000

Total Quits During 2021: 47,825,000

-----------

Total Separations §: 6,058,000  

Total Separations During 2021 §: 69,045,000 

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate - January 2022 Update

CHART: Job Openings Rate
January 2022 Update

 =============

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

=============


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, March 08, 2022

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February 2022

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for February 2022:

=========

Predicted: 97.0
Actual: 95.7

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.442% (-1.4 points.)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -0.104% (-0.1 point.)


=========

 
CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February 2022 Update

 CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
February 2022 Update
 
=========
 
CHART: NFIB Small Business Earnings, Last 3 Months - February 2022 Update

 CHART: NFIB Small Business Earnings
Last 3 Months
February 2022 Update
 
=========

From Today's Report:

"...The In February, the NFIB Optimism Index decreased by 1.4 points to 95.7, the second consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Twenty-six percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, a four-point increase since December and the highest reading since the third quarter of 1981.

'Inflation continues to be a problem on Main Street, leading more owners to raise selling prices again in February,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages also remain problems, leading to lower earnings and sales for many.'

Price raising activity over the past 12 months has continued to escalate, reaching levels not seen since the early 1980s when prices were rising at double-digit rates. Unadjusted, 4% of owners reported lower average selling prices and 68% reported higher average prices. Price hikes were the most frequent in retail (79% higher, 4% lower), wholesale (77% higher, 4% lower), construction (73% higher, 3% lower), and manufacturing (72% higher, 6% lower). Seasonally adjusted, a net 46% of owners plan price hikes.

As reported last week in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 48% of all owners reported
job openings they could not fill in the current period. Ninety-three percent of owners hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for their open positions.

Key Findings Include:

-- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased seven points to a net 68% (seasonally adjusted), a 48-year record high reading.

-- Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased two points to a net negative 35%.

-- Forty-eight percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, an increase of one point from January.

-- Inventory accumulation plans fell one percentage point, following a five-point decline in January, following the massive inventory build in Q4.
.."

=========

  • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 97.1.

=========

 
=========


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

bing

bing

www.FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 2022 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve in any way.
Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners of this website
make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this website. Consult a
financial professional before making important decisions related to any investment or loan
product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans, education loans, first
or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.