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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, May 31, 2019

Consumer Sentiment: Final Result for May 2019

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Result for May 2019 was released today:

Predicted: 101.5
Actual: 100.0

  • Change from Previous Month: +2.881 % (+2.8 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: +2.041 % (+2.0 points)

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  • Final ICS Reading from April 2019: 97.2

  • Final ICS Reading from May 2018: 98.0

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From today's report:

"...Although consumer sentiment remained at very favorable levels, confidence significantly eroded in the last two weeks of May. The late-month decline was due to unfavorable references to tariffs, spontaneously mentioned by 35% of all consumers in the last two weeks of May, up from 16% in the first half of May and 15% in April and equal to the peak recorded last July in response to the initial imposition of tariffs. The year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 2.9% in May up from last month’s 2.5%. Year-ahead inflation expectations among those who unfavorably mentioned tariffs was 0.5 percentage points higher than those who made no references to tariffs. Importantly, the gain in inflation expectations was recorded prior to the actual increases in consumer prices due to the most recent hike in tariffs. While higher inflation expectations modestly reduced real income expectations, the largest impact was on buying conditions for appliances and other large household durables, which fell to their lowest level in four years.

The combination of higher inflation and a slower pace of spending provide conflicting signals for monetary policy. The divergence will further widen if, as is likely, the trade war escalates. Will the Fed risk higher inflation by lowering interest rates, or risk higher unemployment by raising interest rates? This dilemma comes at a time when consumers have expressed the highest level of confidence since 2002 in the government’s ability to keep both inflation and unemployment at reasonably low levels. Consumers now judge economic security more important than a faster pace of growth in their personal incomes or household wealth. ..."

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2019

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2019:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.5%

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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars:  +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars +0.1% 

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.


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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


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Thursday, May 30, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 24, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 24, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +42,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 476,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Second Estimate for Q1, 2019

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019 :

Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +3.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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"...Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $65.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $7.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $62.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $4.0 billion, and payments increased $14.8 billion..."

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GDP, First Quarter 2019, Second Estimate
GDP, First Quarter 2019, Second Estimate

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  • On June 27, 2019, a third and "final" GDP estimate will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for the first quarter of  2019.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 25, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 25, 2019:

Predicted: 215,000
Actual: 215,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 212,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2019

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May 2019) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

  • Actual: 134.1

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Previous Month (revised): 129.2

  • Change from Previous Month: +3.793% (+4.9 points)
 
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed.

Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.'..
."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 17, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 17, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +4,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +38,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 476,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Monday, May 20, 2019

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2019:

Predicted: -0.10
Actual (CFNAI): -0.45

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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  • Previous Month (revised): +0.05
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.32
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Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles April 2019 Update
Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles
April 2019 Update

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From Today's Report

"...Index points to slower economic growth in April

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in April from +0.05 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.32 in April from –0.24 in March.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.16 in March. Thirty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 52 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from March to April, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions..."
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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 11, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 11, 2019:

Predicted: 219,000
Actual: 212,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (unrevised): 228,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 225,000
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Housing Starts During April 2019

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for April 2019:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,200,000
Actual: 1,235,000

Change From Previous Month: +5.7%
Change From One Year Previous: -2.5%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,290,000
Actual: 1,296,000

Change From Previous Month: +0.6%
Change From One Year Previous: -5.0%

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.



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Chart: Housing Starts - April 2019 Update
Chart: Housing Starts - April 2019 Update

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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 10, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 10, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +5,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +39,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 472,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Friday, May 10, 2019

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2019:

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Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.3% 

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - April 2019 Update
Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - April 2019 Update

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Friday, May 03, 2019

Employment Situation Report for April 2019

The Employment Situation Report for April 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +263,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Month: 7.3%
12 Months Previous: 7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.217% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.3%
Actual: +3.234% (+$0.87)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.074% (-$0.71)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +2.935% (+$27.24)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 63.0%
12 Months Previous: 62.8%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $23.31 [+0.301%] in April.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up from +33,000 to +56,000, and the change for March was revised down from +196,000 to +189,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 16,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
After revisions, job gains have averaged 169,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 3, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 3, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +32,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 466,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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