.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, October 10, 2019

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 5, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on  October 5, 2019:

Predicted: 219,000
Actual: 210,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 220,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 213,750
====================




====================


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2019:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.0% (unchanged)
Actual: +0.0% (unchanged)

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.7%

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.4%

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

From Today's Report:

"...Increases in the indexes for shelter and food were offset by declines in the indexes for energy and used cars and trucks to result in the seasonally adjusted all items index being flat. The energy index fell 1.4 percent as the gasoline index declined 2.4 percent. The food index increased 0.1 percent in September after being unchanged in each of the prior 3 months.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the last 3 months. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance all rose in September. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, and communication all declined..."

 
=========================================


Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - September 2019 Update
Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - September 2019 Update

========================================= 



=========================================

Labels: , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, October 04, 2019

Employment Situation Report for September 2019

The Employment Situation Report for September 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +145,000
Actual: +136,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 7.2%
12 Months Previous: 7.5%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.036% (-$0.01)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.2%
Actual: +2.894% (+$0.79)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.035% (-$0.34)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +2.596% (+$24.45)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.2%
Previous Month: 63.2%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...
In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $28.09, were little changed (-1 cent [-0.036%]), after rising by 11 cents in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by [+2.894%]. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents [+0.169%] to $23.65.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from +159,000 to +166,000, and the change for August was revised up by 38,000 from +130,000 to +168,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 45,000 more than previously reported.  (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged
157,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
======

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


===================


 ===================


Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, October 03, 2019

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for September 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for September 2019:

Predicted: 55.5%
Actual: 52.6% (-3.8 points month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month: 56.4%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 116th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

==========

Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

  •    'Tariffs are adding uncertainty to short-term pricing on certain commodities, but suppliers are finding alternate solutions. The bigger impacts appear to be on demand side, which is driving short-term favorability in certain domestic markets.'
     (Accommodation + Food Services)

  •     'Demand has been variable: up one month, down the next. I think customers are watching our input costs and buying ahead on the dips, to the extent that contracts allow.'
     (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting)

  •     'We are very busy right now [and] expect to be so for the next 12 months. We are still very shorthanded with qualified labor.'
     (Construction)

  •     'Gearing up for the fourth quarter of 2019. On track to end the year generally as anticipated, considering interest-rate changes, trade and tariff issues and other economic indicators and trends.'
     (Finance + Insurance)

  •     'We continue with low patient census, which affects our orders and revenue.'
     (Health Care + Social Assistance)

  •     'As employee cost [wages] are increasing in this better economy, it is getting harder to fight price increases on goods and services.'
     (Information)

  •     'Costs are going up, from labor to chemicals to metals.'
     (Management of Companies + Support Services)

  •     'While Chinese tariffs are understandable, they are impacting our supply chain decisions. We are actively pursuing alternate sources for our China-based production. At this point, we have not passed on tariff costs to our customers, but we are evaluating all options.'
     (Other Services)

  •     'Business continues to pick up as we quickly approach Q4. Week by week, we inch closer to a much-anticipated holiday retail season, which requires not only last-minute buys, but a push to fill open positions.'
     (Retail Trade)

 ==========



==========


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History September 2019 Update
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History
September 2019 Update

==========



Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 27, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 27, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +18,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 422,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Construction Spending During August 2019

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for August 2019:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.135% (+$1,734,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Estimated construction spending during August 2019: $1,287,306,000,000.

  • July 2019 (revised): $1,285,572,000,000.
     
  • Change from 12 months previous: -1.895% (-$24,865,000,000.)

================







================


Labels: ,


>  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for September 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for September 2019:

Predicted: 50.0%
Actual: 47.8% (-1.3 points month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 49.1%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September, and the overall economy grew for the 125th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."
=========

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:



  •     'Second month in a row in which shipments have outpaced new orders.'
     (Computer + Electronic Products)

  •     'Continued softening in the global automotive market. Trade-war impacts also have localized effects, particularly in select export markets. Seeing warehouses filling again after what appeared to be a short reduction of demand.'
     (Chemical Products)

  •     'Business outlook remains cautious. Orders seem to be decreasing, but luckily not as sharp of a decrease as we were expecting.'
     (Transportation Equipment)

  •     'Chinese tariffs going up are hurting our business. Most of the materials are not made in the U.S. and made only in China.'
     (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

  •     'General market is slowing even more than a normal fourth-quarter slowdown.'
     (Fabricated Metal Products)

  •     'Demand softening on some product lines, backlogs have reduced, and dealer inventories are growing.'
     (Machinery)

  •     'Business has been flat for us. Year-over-year growth has slowed dramatically.'
     (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  •     'We have seen a reduction in sales orders and, therefore, a lower demand for products we order. We have also reduced our workforce by 10 percent.'
     (Plastics + Rubber Products)

  •     'Incoming sales are sluggish for this time of year.'
     (Furniture + Related Products)

  •     'Economy seems to be softening. The tariffs have caused much confusion in the industry.'
     (Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components)

 =========


ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History September 2019 Update
ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History
September 2019 Update

=========


=========

Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

www.FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 2019 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve in any way.
Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners of this website
make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this website. Consult a
financial professional before making important decisions related to any investment or loan
product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans, education loans, first
or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.