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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, April 30, 2022

Employment Cost Index for Q1, 2022

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the first quarter of 2022 was released by The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +1.4%


  • Reading from previous quarter: +1.0%
     
  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +4.5%


The yellow-highlighter figure represents the seasonally adjusted, quarter-to-quarter change for the ECI, which is the Labor Department's broadest measure of employee-compensation costs, and includes wages, salaries and benefits.

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  • Wages and Salaries: +1.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +4.7% 

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  • Benefits: +1.8%

  • Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +4.1% 

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From the Labor Department website:


"...The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries..."

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CHART: Wages and Salaries and Benefits for Civilian Workers 12 Month Percent Change - Q1, 2022 UPDATE

CHART: Wages and Salaries and Benefits for Civilian Workers
12 Month Percent Change - Q1, 2022 UPDATE


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Friday, April 29, 2022

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.9

  • Actual: +1.1%
  • Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%
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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5
  • Actual: +0.5%
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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.4%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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CHART: Month-On-Month Change In Consumer Spending

CHART: Month-On-Month Change In Consumer Spending


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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.9% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +6.6%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +5.2%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 23, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 23, 2022:

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Predicted: 180,000

  • Actual: 180,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 185,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 179,750

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From Today's Report

  • "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending April 16, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 16 was 1,408,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since February 7, 1970 when it was 1,397,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,417,000 to 1,409,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,455,000, a decrease of 24,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 1970 when it was 1,435,250.  The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,481,750 to 1,479,500.

    During the week ending April 9, Extended Benefits were available in the following state: New Jersey.

    The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 9 were in California (2.2), New Jersey (2.2), Alaska (1.9), Minnesota (1.8), New York (1.6), Rhode Island (1.6), Illinois (1.5), Massachusetts (1.5), Pennsylvania (1.3), and Puerto Rico (1.3).

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 16 were in Connecticut (+1,391), New Jersey (+1,116), Rhode Island (+368), Montana (+340), and Maryland (+147), while the largest decreases were in Missouri (-7,498), Michigan (-3,509), New York (-2,956), Ohio (-2,902), and Texas (-2,330)..."


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Thursday, April 28, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +1.2%

  • Actual: -1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


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From Today's Report:

"...Disposable personal income increased $216.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $20.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 2.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.6 percent.

Personal saving was $1.21 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.39 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter.

In the first quarter, an increase in COVID-19 cases related to the Omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

Personal saving was $1.21 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.39 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - First Estimate

CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - First Estimate

 
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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 22, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 22, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -78,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 414,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Durable Goods Orders During March 2022

The Durable Goods Orders report for March 2022 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: +1.1%

  • Actual: $272,718,000,000 (+$2,295,000,000 [+0.842%])

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 CHART: Durable Goods Orders - March 2022 Update


CHART: Durable Goods Orders
March 2022 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Computers and electronic products, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $0.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $26.3 billion..."

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the dollar amount of new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

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Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 105.0
  • Actual: 107.3

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Previous Month (revised): 107.6

  • Change from Previous Month: -0.279% (-0.3 point)
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index declined, but remains quite high, suggesting the economy continued to expand in early Q2. Expectations, while still weak, did not deteriorate further amid high prices, especially at the gas pump, and the war in Ukraine. Vacation intentions cooled but intentions to buy big-ticket items like automobiles and many appliances rose somewhat.'

'Still, purchasing intentions are down overall from recent levels as interest rates have begun rising. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation retreated from an all-time high in March but remained elevated. Looking ahead, inflation and the war in Ukraine will continue to pose downside risks to confidence and may further curb consumer spending this year.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.


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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - April 2022 Update
 
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
April 2022 Update

 
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New Home Sales During March 2022

The March 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 760,000
  • Actual New Home Sales: 763,000

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  • Change from One Month Previous: -72,000 units (-8.623%)

  • Change from One Year Previous: -110,000 units (-12.6%)


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Median Price for a New Home
during March 2022: $436,700 (New Record High)
 

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Average Price for a New Home
during March 2022: $523,900 (New Record High)

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Inventory: 407,000 (6.4 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales - March 2022 Update

CHART: New Home Sales - March 2022 Update

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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Monday, April 25, 2022

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March 2022:

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Predicted: +0.42
  • Actual (CFNAI): +0.44

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  • Previous Month (revised): +0.54
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.57
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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles - March 2022 Update

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
March 2022 Update

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CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index - March 2022 Update

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
March 2022 Update


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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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Thursday, April 21, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 16, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 16, 2022:

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Predicted: 180,000

  • Actual: 184,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 186,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 177,250

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From Today's Report

  • "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending April 9, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 9 was 1,417,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 1,475,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since February 21, 1970 when it was 1,412,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,481,750, a decrease of 31,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 1970 when it was 1,456,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,511,500 to 1,513,000.


    The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 2 were in New Jersey (2.3), California (2.2), Alaska (2.0), Minnesota (2.0), Illinois (1.7), Massachusetts (1.7), New York (1.7), Rhode Island (1.7), Pennsylvania (1.5), and the Virgin Islands (1.5). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 9 were in Missouri (+7,194), Michigan (+5,950), California (+3,215), Indiana (+3,193), and Texas (+2,617), while the largest decreases were in Ohio (-3,886), Wisconsin (-1,159), Oklahoma (-776), Utah (-270), and Hawaii (-219)..."


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Leading Economic Index for March 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2022 this morning:

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Index for March 2022: 119.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.3%
  • Actual: +0.251% (+0.3 point)

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  • LEI for February 2022: 119.5

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.8

  • LEI for December 2021: 119.3

  • LEI for November 2021: 118.9

  • LEI for October 2021: 118.1

  • LEI for September 2021: 117.6 

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - March 2022 Update

CHART: Leading Economic Index
March 2022 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 0.3% in March to 119.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in February. The LEI increased by 1.9% in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.


'The US LEI rose again in March despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'This broad-based improvement signals economic growth is likely to continue through 2022 despite volatile stock prices and weakening business and consumer expectations. The Conference Board projects 3.0% year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022, which is slower than the 5.6% pace of 2021, but still well above [pre-
COVID-19] trend. This rate also reflects a 0.5 [percentage point] downgrade incorporated in our base case to include the effects of the war in Ukraine compared to before the war (3.5%.)

However, downside risks to the growth outlook remain, associated with intensification of supply chain disruptions and
inflation linked to lingering pandemic shutdowns and the war, as well as with tightening monetary policy and persistent labor shortages.'..."

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 15, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 15, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -8,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -79,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 413,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

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Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Existing Home Sales During March 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for March 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 6,000,000
Actual: 5,770,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -2.698% (-160,000 homes)

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -4.47% (-270,000 homes)
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Inventory: 950,000 (2.0 months supply; -9.5% year-on-year.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During March 2022: $375,300

Change from One Year Previous: +15.017% (+$49,000)

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Average Price for A Used Home During March 2022: $387,100

Change from One Year Previous: +9.629% (+$34,000)

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From Today's Report:


"..."The housing market is starting to feel the impact of sharply rising mortgage rates and higher inflation taking a hit on purchasing power," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Still, homes are selling rapidly, and home price gains remain in the double-digits."

With mortgage rates expected to rise further, Yun predicts transactions to contract by 10% this year, for home prices to readjust, and for gains to grow around 5%.

"Home prices have consistently moved upward as supply remains tight," Yun said. "However, sellers should not expect the easy-profit gains and should look for multiple offers to fade as demand continues to subside."

Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in March, down from 18 days in February and 18 days in March 2021. Eighty-seven percent of homes sold in March 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 30% of sales in March, up from 29% in February and down from 32% in March 2021. NAR's 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 2021 – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.

"It appears first-time homebuyers are still looking to lock in at current mortgage rates before they inevitably increase," Yun said.

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in March, equal to the percentage seen in both February 2022 and March 2021.
.."

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Existing Home Sales During March 2022

Existing Home Sales During March 2022


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Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Housing Starts During March 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for March 2022:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,780,000
Actual: 1,793,000

Change From Previous Month: +0.28% (+5,000 New Units)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +3.942% (+68,000 New Units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,850,000
Actual: 1,873,000

Change From Previous Month: +0.429% (+8,000 New Permits)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +6.724%  (+118,000 New Permits)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


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CHART: Housing Starts - March 2022 Update

CHART: Housing Starts
March 2022 Update


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Thursday, April 14, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 9, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 9, 2022:

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Predicted: 180,000

  • Actual: 185,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 167,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 172,250

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From Today's Report

  • "...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 26 were in California (2.4), New Jersey (2.3), Alaska (2.1), Minnesota (2.0), Massachusetts (1.9), Rhode Island (1.9), New York (1.8), Georgia (1.7), Illinois (1.7), and Puerto Rico (1.7).

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 2 were in Ohio (+1,509), Pennsylvania (+1,478), California (+1,082), Illinois (+509), and Florida (+466), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,491), Texas (-2,487), New Jersey (-1,105), Kentucky (-1,046), and New York (-866)..."


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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for March 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2022:

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual: +0.5% (+$3,309,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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  • Estimated Retail Sales During March2022: $665,726,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.876% (+$42,829,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - March 2022 Update
CHART: Retail Sales - March 2022 Update

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Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 8, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 8, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +9,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -70,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 421,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +1.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +11.2%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.9%

Change from 12 months previous:  +7.0%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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From Today's Report:

"...The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.9 percent in February and 1.2 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010..."

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CHART: Producer Price Index | Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12 Month Percent Changes - March 2022 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index | Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12 Month Percent Changes
March 2022 Update

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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2022:


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CPI During March 2022: 287.504

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Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +1.335% (+3.788 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.542% (+22.627 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During March 2021: 264.877

=========================================

 


=========================================


CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Fuel Oil + Gasoline (All Types) 12 Month Percent Change - March 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Fuel Oil + Gasoline (All Types)
12-Month Percent Change
March 2022 Update

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Thursday, April 07, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 2, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 2, 2022:

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Predicted: 170,000

  • Actual: 166,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 171,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 170,000

====================

From Today's Report

  • "...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 19 were in California (2.4), New Jersey (2.4), Alaska (2.2), Illinois (2.1), Rhode Island (2.1), Massachusetts (2.0), Minnesota (2.0), New York (1.9), and the Virgin Islands (1.7).

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 26 were in Ohio (+3,580), Michigan (+3,545), California (+3,256), Texas (+2,251), and New York (+761), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-2,034), Pennsylvania (-732), Tennessee (-235), Florida (-165), and Connecticut (-138)..."


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Wednesday, April 06, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 1, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 1, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -85,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 412,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

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Tuesday, April 05, 2022

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March 2022

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March 2022:

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Predicted: 58.0%
  • Actual: 58.3%  (+1.8 points month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 56.5%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector grew in March for the 22nd month in a row, with the Services PMI® registering 58.3 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:
:


  • "...'Supply chain challenges continue at about the same levels as last month. Employment has improved as COVID-19 cases are declining. Restaurant sales have improved since Valentine’s Day, with mask and vaccine verification mandates being dropped.'
     [Accommodation + Food Services]


    'Grain and fertilizer prices are near all-time highs, resulting in decreased purchasing.'
     [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting]


    '
    Labor and inflation continue to push costs higher across the board for food and food-service supplies.'
     [Educational Services]


    'Pricing pressures are stronger than ever due to the Russia-Ukraine [war], and energy costs are skyrocketing.'
     [Construction]


    'Supply chain disruptions are still a problem due to reduced allocations and manufacturer back orders. Demand continues to outpace manufacturing capacity.'
     [Health Care + Social Assistance]


    'Energy costs are putting a pinch on all suppliers. We have received many surcharge notices.'
     [Information]


    'Concerns over
    inflation and rising energy prices are causing our company to take a cautious approach, especially related to planned capital expenditures.'
     [Management of Companies + Support Services]


    'Long lead times for electronic components are becoming normal and expected. Chemical deliveries are often delayed due to a lack of qualified hazardous materials drivers.'
     [Public Administration]


    'Global supply chain issues continue to disrupt chip supply, which is suppressing production of new vehicles.'
     [Retail Trade]


    'We are still seeing raw material subcomponent shortages, transportation delays and price increases.'
     [Utilities]


    'Constrained supply of many key product groups continues. Inflation worsening. Overall sales and profitability continue to be strong.'
     [Wholesale Trade]..."

===========


==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index (NMI®) - March 20222 Update

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index (NMI®)
March 20222 Update

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