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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 17, 2020

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 17, 2020 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -16,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 428,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Friday, January 03, 2020

ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December 2019:

Predicted: 49.4%
  • Actual: 47.2% (-0.9 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 48.1%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"..Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December, and the overall economy grew for the 128th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®...."
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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:


  •     "Backlog of orders is shrinking due to new order pace continuing to fall."
     (Computer + Electronic Products)

  •     "Due to sluggish sales, we have introduced promotions to generate increased sales."
     (Chemical Products)

  •     "Cautiously optimistic is the rule these days. Sales are decent, but we're wondering what 2020 will bring. Still hedging that it will be successful — but maybe not as much as this year."
     (Transportation Equipment)

  •     "Starting to see suppliers try to pass on costs associated with tariffs. Uncertainty on the trade front continues to keep agricultural markets on the defensive."
     (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

  •     "Down month-to-month, but up over last year."
     (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  •     "Anticipated large export orders did not materialize. As a result, expected U.S. production has decreased."
     (Fabricated Metal Products)

  •     "Dealer inventories have rebounded, and overall customer market has softened, resulting in corrections to near-term production schedules and a tentative forecast outlook."
     (Machinery)

  •     "Export markets continue to weaken for plastic resins — Mexican producers are actually trying to sell product back into the U.S. due to weak in-country demand."
     (Plastics + Rubber Products)

  •     "Our outlook for the first quarter of 2020 is positive. We have secured contracts from a number of former customers and expect sales growth of about 5 percent over Q4 of 2019."
     (Textile Mills)

  •     "The construction market seems to have slowed for end of year. Overall, it’s marginally up."
     (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

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ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History  December 2019 Update
ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History
December 2019 Update

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Thursday, January 02, 2020

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 28, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 28, 2019:

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Predicted: 222,000
  • Actual: 222,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 224,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 233,250
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