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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2018

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2018 was released this morning:

Predicted: No change
Actual: -0.2%

For all of 2018: +2.5%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: unchanged%

For all of 2018: +2.8%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Friday, January 11, 2019

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2018

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2018:

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Predicted: -0.1
Actual: -0.1 

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 4, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  January 4, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -1,700,000

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +20,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 439,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Friday, January 04, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 28, 2018

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 28, 2018 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: No Change

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +17,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 441,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Employment Situation Report for December 2018

The Employment Situation Report for December 2018 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +312,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.6%
Previous Month: 7.6%
12 Months Previous: 8.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.402% (+$0.11)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +3.153% (+$0.84)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.694% (+$6.53)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.153% (+$28.98)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.1%
Previous Month: 62.9%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...
In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 11 cents to $27.48 [+0.402%]. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 84 cents, or [+3.153%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 9 cents to $23.05 [+0.392%] in December.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up from +155,000 to +176,000, and the change for October was revised up from +237,000 to +274,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 58,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
After revisions, job gains have averaged 254,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


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Thursday, January 03, 2019

ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2018

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December 2018:

Predicted: 57.9%
Actual: 54.1% (-5.2 points month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 59.3%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 116th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."
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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:



  •     “Growth appears to have stopped. Resources still focused on re-sourcing for U.S. tariff mitigation out of China.”
     (Computer + Electronic Products)

  •     “Brexit has become a problem due to labeling changes.”
     (Chemical Products)

  •     “Customer demand continues to decrease [due to] concerns about the economy and tariffs.”
     (Transportation Equipment)

  •     “Starting to see more and more inflationary increases for raw materials. Also, suppliers [are] forcing price increases due to tariffs.”
    (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

  •     “The ongoing open issues with tariffs between U.S. and China are causing longer-term concerns about costs and sourcing strategies for our manufacturing operations. We were anticipating more clarity [regarding] tariffs at the end of 2018.”
     (Machinery)

  •     “Business is steady, but pace of incoming orders are slowing.”
     (Furniture + Related Products)

  •     “Business is robust for certain sectors [aerospace] and flat to downward for others [energy]. Tariffs continue to impact business direction and profit.”
     (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  •     “Caution seems to be the outlook. Are we in a correction, or is the market getting ready to slow over time?”
     (Fabricated Metal Products)

  •     “No major change in business operations towards the end of 2018; however, we are carefully monitoring oil prices and outside influence from market conditions to better understand our 2019 outlook and capital plans.”
     (Petroleum + Coal Products)

  •     “Customers are hedge buying in December as a result of announced price increases starting in January.”
     (Textile Mills)


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ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History - December 2018 Update
ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History
December 2018 Update

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 29, 2018

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 29, 2018:

Predicted: 217,000
Actual: 231,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 221,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750
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