Productivity and Labor Cost Report for Q4, 2006 (Revised) Released Today

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released their revised report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the fourth quarter of 2006:

Non-farm Productivity
Predicted: +1.6%
Actual: +1.6%

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +6.6%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs.

For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Preliminary" Released Today for Q4, 2006

The preliminary, real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the fourth quarter of 2006 was released this morning:

Predicted: +2.3%
Actual: +2.2%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The final GDP report for Q4, 2006, which will contain the most authoritative data for the fourth quarter, will be released on March 29, 2007.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

Here's a snippet from a press release (PDF) issued by the Commerce Department this morning:

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The small acceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and accelerations in PCE, in exports, and in federal government spending that were partly offset by downturns in private inventory investment, in equipment and software, and in nonresidential structures.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.23 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in real DP after contributing 0.07 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.24 percentage points from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.76 percentage point to the third-quarter growth."

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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International Trade Balance Level for December, 2006

The International Trade Balance Level for December, 2006 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $ -59,800,000,000
Actual: $ -61,200,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade -- imports vs. exports -- between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Credit Status Report for December, 2006 Released Today

The Consumer Credit status report for December, 2006 was released by the Fed earlier this afternoon:

Actual: +$6,000,000,000

The above figures represent the month-to-month change in total outstanding, installment-based consumer credit; includes car loans and credit cards.


Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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U.S. Factory Orders Report for December, 2006

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December, 2006:

Predicted: +1.9%
Actual: +2.4%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q4, 2006

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter of 2006 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Predicted: +3.1%
Actual: +3.5%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision. Next month, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" report for the above-referenced quarter, which will contain more accurate data. A "final" GDP report will be released later this year, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data on the above-referenced quarter.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Home Sales for December, 2006

The December, 2006 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted New Home Sales for December, 2006: 1,050,000

Actual New Home Sales for December, 2006: 1,120,000

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November, 2006 New Home Sales (Revised): 1,069,000

December, 2005 New Home Sales: 1,259,000

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December, 2006 New Home Sales: Median Price: $235,000

December, 2006 New Home Sales: Average Price: $290,100


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Durable Goods Orders Report for December, 2006 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for December, 2006 was released this morning:

Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +3.1%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, microwave ovens, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Existing Home Sales for December, 2006

The Existing Home Sales report for December, 2006 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 6,250,000
Actual: 6,220,000

Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In December, 2006: $222,000

Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In December, 2006: $269,000


The U.S. Existing Home Sales report is a sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for a given month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for December, 2006

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December, 2006:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.9%

Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual : +1.0%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

Retail & Food Services Sales since December, 2005: +5.4%.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 30, 2006

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on December 30, 2006:

Predicted: 315,000
Actual: 329,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Construction Spending during November, 2006

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department -- released the Construction Spending report for November, 2006:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.2%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Overall construction spending was up by 0.1% when compared to the revised numbers from November, 2005.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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