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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, February 07, 2025

Employment Situation Report for January 2025

The Employment Situation Report for January 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +143,000
Previous Month (revised): 307,000
One Year Previous: 119,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.0%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.477% (+$0.17)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.06% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +
0.183% (+$2.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.76% (+$44.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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JANUARY 2005 THRU JANUARY 2025 CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JANUARY 2005 THRU JANUARY 2025
   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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Thursday, February 06, 2025

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 1, 2025

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims


Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 1, 2025:

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Predicted: 218,000

  • Actual: 219,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 208,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

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Wednesday, February 05, 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000
  • Actual:   7,600,000
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  • Previous Month (revised): 8,156,000

  • One Year Previous: 8,889,000

  • Change from one year previous: -14.5% (-1,289,000)


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HIRES: 5,462,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.62% (-325,000)

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QUITS: 3,197,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.04% (-242,000)


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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,771,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +10.21% (+164,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS §: 5,269,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.77% (-150,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People per Job Opening December 2009 thru December 2024

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
December 2009 thru 
December 2024

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Tuesday, February 04, 2025

U.S. Factory Shipments During December 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December 2024:


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Predicted: FLAT

  • Actual: -0.888% (-5,181,000,000)

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  • December 2024 New Shipments: $578,508,000,000.

  • November 2024 New Shipments: $583,689,000,000.


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  • Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):

    -$3,201,000,000 | -0.55% (not seasonally adjusted)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders - DECEMBER 2024 Update
CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
DECEMBER 2024 Update

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Saturday, February 01, 2025

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December, 2024:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.6%
  • Actual: +0.7%
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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%
  • Actual: +0.4%
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  • Percent Change in Real Disposable Personal Income, Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +2.4%
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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.3% 
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Change In Monthly Consumer Spending - DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE
 
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Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF)


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Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?

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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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