May 9, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 9, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite index ended the week in correction territory...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.36% (-3,764.66 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.13% (-2,244.97 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.88% (-484.24 points) - CHART

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CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 9, 2025 UPDATE
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• Currently, our odds are at 85% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 18, 2025.

Stay tuned...

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 3, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 3, 2025:

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Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 228,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 241,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 2, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 2, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -21,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 438,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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May 2, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 2, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite index finished the week in correction...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.21% (-3,696.61 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -10.89% (-2,196.16 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.45% (-457.48 points) - CHART

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CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 2, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

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Employment Situation Report for April 2025

The Employment Situation Report for April 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +177,000

Previous Month (revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 118,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.17% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.77% (+$1.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.167% (+$2.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.07% (+$48.41)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
APRIL 2005 THRU APRIL 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 26, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 26, 2025:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 241,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for April 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for April 2025:

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Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 105,441

• Previous Month: 275,240

  > Change from previous month: -61.69% (-169,799 cuts)

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• One-Year Previous: 64,789
  

 > Change from one-year previous: +62.75% (+40,652 cuts)

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From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded. It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227, 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024.

In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to 'Economic Conditions' and 'Cost-Cutting.'

'DOGE Actions'  lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172, 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to 'DOGE Downstream Impact' through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025..."

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If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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Job Cuts by Reason - USA
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

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Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

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 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (Advance) Estimate for Q1, 2025

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025:

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Previous quarter: +2.4%

• Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q1, 2025 - First Estimate / UPDATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

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