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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for June 2024

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for June 2024:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%

  • Actual:  -0.023% (-159,000)
=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Estimated Retail Sales During June 2024: $704,324,000,000
  • Change From A Year Ago: +2.28% (+$15,694,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly January 2004 Thru December 2024 JUNE 2024 UPDATE - Seasonally Adjusted
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2004 Thru December 2024
JUNE 2024 UPDATE - Seasonally Adjusted
=================

=================

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Friday, July 12, 2024

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2024 was released this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): FLAT

  • Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%  (prior = +2.2%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2%

  • Actual: FLAT
Change from 12 months previous:  +3.1%  (prior = +3.2%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - JUNE 2024 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2024 Update
==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024:


=========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.175

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.034% (+0.106 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.97% (+9.066 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.117% (+0.374 point) M/M

Year-on-Year Change: +3.27% (+10.093 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2023: 305.109

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - June 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2024 Update

========================================

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Friday, July 05, 2024

Employment Situation Report for June 2024

The Employment Situation Report for June 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:


Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +206,000
Previous Month (Revised): 218,000
One Year Previous: 240,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.0%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Month: 7.4%
12 Months Previous: 6.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.287% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.86% (+$1.30)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.
287% (+$3.43)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.56% (+$41.22)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Workweek: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================
CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate - June 2004 THRU June 2024
 CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
June 2004 THRU June 2024
   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 29, 2024

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims


Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 29, 2024:

====================

Predicted: 235,000

  • Actual: 238,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 234,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 238,500

====================

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Thursday, July 04, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 28, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 28, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -12,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -3,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 448,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Wednesday, July 03, 2024

U.S. Factory Shipments During May 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for May 2024:

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Predicted: FLAT

  • Actual: -0.717% (-4,224,000,000)

========

  • May 2024 New Shipments: $584,805,000,000.

  • April 2024 New Shipments: $589,029,000,000.


========

 Year-to-Date Change: +$57,178,000,000 (+2.02%)

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders May 2022 Update

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
May 2022 Update


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Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for May 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 8,000,000
  • Actual:   8,140,000
-------------------------
  • Previous Month (revised): 7,919,000

  • One Year Previous: 9,311,000

  • Change from one year previous: -12.58% (-1,171,000)


=============

HIRES: 5,756,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.73% (-415,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,459,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -13.72% (-550,000)


-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,654,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +8.03% (+123,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS §: 5,422,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.25% (-424,000)

=============
 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People per Job Opening - MAY 2024 UPDATE
CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
MAY 2024 UPDATE

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=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2024

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for June 2024:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

  • Actual: 48.5% (-0.2 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month (revised): 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

  •     'High volume of customer orders.'
     [Chemical Products]

  •     'Customers continue to cut orders with short notice, causing a ripple effect throughout lower-tier suppliers.'
     [Transportation Equipment]

  •     'Consumer demand and inventories are no longer stable at retail and food service establishments.'
     [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products]

  •     'While orders are still steady, inventory from the previous month is enough to satisfy current- and near-term commitments.'
     [Computer + Electronic Products]

  •     'Customers ordering more to create buffer stocks (in case of) future shortages.'
     [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components]

  •     'Order levels in two of our main divisions are indicating weak demand, and now we must work to reduce inventory levels.'
     [Fabricated Metal Products]

  •     'Sales backlog is decreasing. We have furloughed a portion of our workforce as a result.'
     [Machinery]

  •     'The level of production is lower due to decreased demand for products.'
     [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

  •     'Elevated financing costs have dampened demand for residential investment. We have reduced inventories of production components.'
     [Wood Products]

  •     'Orders have increased slightly due to seasonal restocking.'
     [Plastics + Rubber Products]

==========

 

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
 June 2024 Update

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