March 21, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

March 21, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite Index finished the week in the correction zone.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -6.73% (-3,028.69 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.85% (-2,389.84 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.76% (-476.59 points) - CHART

===========

 CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 March 21, 2025 UPDATE
===============

The Fed is likely (current odds at 90%) to make no move with short-term rates at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 14, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 14, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -8,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 437,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Leading Economic Index for February 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2025:
==============

Index for February 2025: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.46% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February.

Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline.

On a positive note, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023, suggesting that headwinds in the economy as of February may have moderated compared to last year.

However, given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During February 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for February 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,501,000

Month-on-Month Change: +11.19% (+151,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.91% (-45,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,450,000

• Actual: 1,456,000

Month-on-Month Change: -1.15.% (-17,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -6.85%  (-107,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.3%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

FEBRUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for February 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -1.2%

• Actual: +0.195% (+1,408,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During February 2025: $722,708,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +3.11% (+$21,776,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru February 2025
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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March 14, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in correction territory.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -7.83% (-3,525.85 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.99% (-2,419.80 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -8.22% (-505.21 points) - CHART

===========

 

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 March 14, 2025 UPDATE

===============

Interest Rates

Odds remain high that the Fed leave short-term rates unchanged at the upcoming monetary policy meeting (March 19, 2025.) Stay tuned...

===============

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for March 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for March 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 57.9

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -10.51% (-6.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -27.08% (-21.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for February 2025: 64.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for March 2024: 79.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets,  inflation, business conditions, and stock markets. Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences. Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February. Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable 10% decline in their expectations index in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since 1993, stemming from a sizable rise among Independents, and followed an already-large increase in February..."

=========

   

CHART: Unemployment and
Inflation Expectations Worsen
March 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.2% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3% 
(prior - revised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.7% (prior = +2.3%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.9% (prior = +4.1%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 220,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 222,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for FEBRUARY 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for February 2025:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 100.7

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -2.04 % (-2.1 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +12.64 % (+11.3 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
FEBRUARY 2025 Update 

========= 

CHART: NFIB Uncertainty Index
 FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

========= 

From Today's Report:

"...The Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7, the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 but is 4.4 points off its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second highest reading. The Optimism Index moderated in February while their level of uncertainty spiked. Small business owners have experienced uncertainty whiplash over the last four months with the Index falling from October’s 110 reading to 86 in December and then back up to 104...

...Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons. Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality..."

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 102.8.

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 89.4.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 7, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 7, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -11,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 435,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025:

=========================================

CPI During February 2025: 319.082

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.44% (+1.411 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.82% (+8.756 points)

[prior = +3.00%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.4%

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.41 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.12% (+9.833 points)

[prior = +3.26%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During February 2024: 310.326

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================  

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   7,740,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,508,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,468,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -8.6% (-728,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,393,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.21% (-179,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,266,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.59% (-87,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,635,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.37% (-57,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,252,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.26% (-177,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JANUARY 2010 thru JANUARY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Employment Situation Report for February 2025

The Employment Situation Report for February 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +151,000

Previous Month (revised): 125,000
One Year Previous: 222,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.0%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.28% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.02% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.28% (+$3.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.42% (+$40.49)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.1 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
FEBRUARY 2005 THRU FEBRUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for February 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for February 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During February 2025: 172,017

• Previous Month: 49,795
  

 > Change from previous month: +245.45% (+122,222 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 84,638
  

> Change from one-year previous: +103.24% (+87,379 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 221,812 job cuts, the highest year-to-date (YTD) total since 2009 when 428,099 job cuts were planned. It is up 33% from the 166,945 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

'Private companies announced plans to shed thousands of jobs last month, particularly in Retail and Technology. With the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] actions, as well as canceled Government contracts, fear of trade wars, and bankruptcies, job cuts soared in February,' said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas..."

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
February 2025 UPDATE

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
February 2025 UPDATE

================

 

Job Cuts: Month-by-Month Totals
February 2025 UPDATE

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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