Leading Economic Index for JULY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July, 2026:

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Index for July, 2026: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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• Actual: +0.2% (+0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.71% (+0.7 point)

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• LEI for June, 2026: 99.3
  
  
• LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  

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The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JULY 2026 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"....'The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Housing Starts During JULY 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department released its Housing Starts report for July, 2026:

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Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,239,000

Month-on-Month Change: -12.44% (-176,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -13.48% (-193,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,374,000

• Actual: 1,443,000

Month-on-Month Change: +5.02% (+69,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.07%  (+43,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

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CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JULY, 2026 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 15, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 15, 2026:

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Predicted: 205,000

• Actual: 206,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 212,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 204,000

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 14, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 14, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -900,000 Barrels (-0.12%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -101,900,000 Barrels (-12.37%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 722,200,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS  

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During July 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for July, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.1%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.1%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% M/M

• Y/Y : +1.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.1%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.3% 

• Y/Y : +1.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

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CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
JULY 2026 UPDATE

 

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• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

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Import and Export Price Indexes for JULY 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July, 2026:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading*: -0.3%
Actual: -0.4%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +5.9%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +7.1%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading*: -0.7%
Actual: -1.3%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +8.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading* = +10.2%

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* = Revised data.  

 

The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index

JULY, 2026 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index

JULY, 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 7, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 7, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: +11,300,000 Barrels (+1.59%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -106,800,000 Barrels (-12.9%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 723,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for JULY 2026

The Commerce Department has released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for JULY, 2026:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.25% (+$1,880,000,000)

• Actual: -0.58% (-$4,470,000,000)

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The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Est. Retail Sales During June, 2026: $763,602,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +5.01% (+$36,426,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru July 2026
JULY 2026 UPDATE
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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY, 2026:

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Previous Month (revised): -0.1%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12-months previous:  +4.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +5.5%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.1% 

• Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12-months previous:  +4.7% 
(prior - revised = +5.0%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +6.5% (prior = +7.8%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.9% (prior = +4.7)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
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CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JULY 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 8, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 8, 2026:

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Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 209,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 199,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JULY 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During July, 2026: 333.918

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.01% ( -0.034 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.36% (+10.87 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +3.53%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.07% (+0.251 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.48% (+8.153 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.59%]

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The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During July, 2025: 323.048

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for JULY 2026

The Employment Situation Report for July, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: -23,000

Previous Month (revised): +20,000

One-Year Previous: +64,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12-Months Previous: 4.3%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12-Months Previous: 7.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.053% (+$0.02)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.15% (+$1.15)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.054% (+$0.69)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.46% (+$43.10)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.4%
Previous Month: 61.5%
12-Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JULY 2006 thru JULY 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JUNE 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for June, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,400,000

• Actual:   7,359,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,537,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -2.36% (-178,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,204,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: +2.15% (+155,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,348,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: +0.39% (+21,000)

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QUITS: 3,232,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -0.68% (-22,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,766,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -4.18% (-77,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,351,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.49% (-81,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People

per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JUNE 2011 thru JUNE 2026

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  

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ISM Manufacturing Index for JULY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for July 2026:

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• Actual: 55.6% (+2.3 points month-on-month)

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Previous month: 53.3%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

• “We are seeing a very opportunistic and reactive marketplace. If shortage items become available, we opportunistically buy. Some customers are reducing inventory; others are pulling forward demand. As many customers that are slowing down, an equal number are growing. It looks like a lot of shuffling and shifting market share.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “We continue to operate in a favorable demand environment driven by growth in the semiconductor, AI, advanced packaging, and high-performance computing markets. Recent company reports indicate strong sales growth and continued investment in manufacturing capacity, technology and customer-support capabilities. This scenario supports a positive business outlook and creates opportunities to leverage increased purchasing scale across the enterprise.”
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

• “Now that it seems the buildout of AI infrastructure globally is nearing real activation, products going into data centers are at full procurement and manufacturing ramp-up. Thus, demand for our semiconductor end products and connectivity (power, networking and photonics) is booming. Similarly, defense is at an all-time high, with most of our product orders going to these two industries. Order volumes for medical, industrial and consumer products are markedly lower.”
   [Machinery]

• “Aerospace and defense demand continues to be strong and growing, based on business backlogs. Competing for scare supply -- electronics, certain critical minerals and other categories — is challenging on-time fulfillment for our supply chains. This is expected to get worse with co-dependent sectors also remaining strong and restocking challenges for automotive electronics.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Continued tariffs on products utilized in our product lines are being monitored by the business, which is working to mitigate or limit tariff risk. Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, pertaining to commodity and energy markets remains a concern. There has been some increased cost and transit time for rerouted shipments due to conflicts in the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Business is still solid; we will increase revenue by 3 percent to 5 percent. We are considering foreign steel purchases for early next year because domestic steel mills are getting greedy.”
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

• “No normalcy in sight in the world of metals. It makes me yearn for the coronavirus pandemic chaos, which was more manageable than whatever this is that we are in.  At least business is better; however, the components of good business are not. Sharp pricing downturns in aluminum will make things more interesting, as supply levels will prevent those decreases from taking hold across the board. Getting customers to understand that is not always easy.”
   [Primary Metals] 

• “The pricing volatility and lead-time extensions in this market are arguably worse than the pandemic era. During COVID-19, we saw a surge of price hikes and inventory buy-ups, which caused constraints that eventually leveled out. We are seeing nothing but consistent upward trends for both pricing and lead times that show no signs of slowing down. Specifically, 5-percent to 25-percent price increases for printed circuit board assembly components and 15-percent to 45-percent increases for bare boards are negatively impacting customer demand outlook into next year. This isn’t sustainable.”
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components] 

• “Our customers in Asia continue to procure elsewhere to avoid paying a tariff While the Iran [invasion] was paused, it was terrific to see fuel prices (and delivery costs) falling steadily. Now that skirmishes have resumed, we expect fuel to rise again.”
   [Paper Products] 

• “Definitely a downturn within several of our business units, mainly the consumer products division. High freight costs, both for truck and ocean, and longer lead times are concerning. Pricing was moving downward until the Iran [invasion] started again.”
   [Chemical Products]
  

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CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

JULY 2026 Update

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DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
JULY 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

 

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