Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for JUNE 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June, 2026:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.02

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.05

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

================== 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles

JUNE 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 18, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 18, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 187,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 209,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 207,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 17, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 17, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,100,000 Barrels (-0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,400,000 Barrels (-11.98%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 723,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS  
  
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Housing Starts During JUNE 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for June, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,199,000

• Actual: 1,427,000

Month-on-Month Change: +19.02% (+228,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.48% (+48,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,410,000

• Actual: 1,367,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.05% (-43,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.29%  (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JUNE, 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q1, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD / FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

• Actual: +2.1%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q1, 2026 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for JUNE 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June, 2026:

==============

Index for June, 2026: 99.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.3% (+0.3 point)

============== 

• LEI for May, 2026: 99.3
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories...

...'Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-on-year GDP growth for 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for JUNE 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for JUNE, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.02% (+$7,779,000,000)

• Actual: +0.22% (+$1,677,000,000)

================= 

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During June, 2026: $768,553,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.72% (+$48,389,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru June 2026
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
=================

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 11, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 11, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 216,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 10, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 10, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -4,600,000 Barrels (-0.63%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,700,000 Barrels (-11.97%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 726,200,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS  
  
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: -0.3-%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +6.5%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.8% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.1% 
(prior - unrevised = +5.1%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +7.9% (prior = +10.4%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.6% (prior = +4.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JUNE 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for June, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 97.0

• Actual: 97.4

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: +2.2% (+2.1 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: -1.22% (-1.2 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

JUNE 2026 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In June, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions fell 2 points to a net -5% (seasonally adjusted). A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from May. 

In June, a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from May.

The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.4% in June, down 0.4 points from May and the lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-two percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 5 points from May.

June’s reading is 12 points below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points from May to a net 38% (seasonally adjusted). This is the fourth consecutive month that actual price increases have risen, marking the highest level since January 2023. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 47% reported higher average prices (up 1 point), and 7% reported lower average selling prices (unchanged). Whileactual price increases rose in June, the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future declined. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 32% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 2points from May’s highest reading since July 2022. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem rose for the fourth consecutive month in June. Twenty-one percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and marking the highest reading since October 2024. Inflation ranks as the top problem..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 95.3

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 98.6

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JUNE 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During June, 2026: 333.952

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.35% (-1.171 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.53% (+11.391 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +4.25%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.01% (+0.036 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.59% (+8.518 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.85%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June, 2025: 322.561

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JUNE 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 3, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 3, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,200,000 Barrels (-0.44%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,200,000 Barrels (-11.85%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 730,800,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2026

The Employment Situation Report for June, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +57,000

Previous Month (revised): +129,000

One-Year Previous: -20,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.35% (+$0.13)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.52% (+$1.28)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.35% (+$4.46)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$47.54)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JUNE 2006 thru JUNE 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Non-Manufacturing (SERVICES) Index for JUNE 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing / Services Index (NMI®) for June, 2026:

==========

• Actual: 54.0%  (-0.5 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month: 54.5%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From Today' Report:

 

 "... Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory..."

 
===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Extreme drought in Virginia is creating financial problems for farmers and the agricultural industry. Dramatically reduced spring crops harvest has created significant cost increases in feed expense. The barley grain crop was nearly totally lost due to the early hot weather and spring freeze. High fertilizer cost increases due to the Iran invasion and increased freight cost has driven cost for crops above breakeven levels on many farms. Many dairy farmers are struggling with crop shortages, high input cost and below milk price breakeven. The financial stress from higher cost due to the Iran invasion and drought-related forage losses has resulted in decreased spending in the agricultural sector.”
   [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting] 

• “In general, our company (commercial construction) is doing well. Pipeline is healthy for current and future work. Material pricing is higher and lead times on certain components in support of data center piping is elongating.”
   [Construction] 

• “In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions, including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.”
   [Finance & Insurance] 

• “Despite economic headwinds like persistent inflation, patient volumes and overall business activity remain strong reflected mainly by outstanding revenue performance. Supply chains remain resilient as well; back orders are at a historical low, and few if any critical products are experiencing difficulties. Labor is steady, as we continue to add full-time workers while the forecast remains positive. Given the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, we are beginning to hear that cost of goods increases are on the horizon but have yet to materialize. Cost increases are in focus for the next quarter.”
   [Health Care & Social Assistance] 

• “From a strategic supply chain perspective, we are seeing increased complexity in managing total landed cost due to tariffs, import/export constraints and duty recovery mechanisms, requiring more proactive coordination across sourcing, logistics and compliance teams. Recent discussions internally also highlight the impact of tariff programs and duty drawback evaluations on purchasing strategies.”
   [Mining] 

• “Demand remains strong in infrastructure, environmental, and resilience projects, while procurement faces persistent labor inflation, supplier capacity constraints, and regulatory complexity—particularly in California and other high-cost markets. Labor-driven categories remain elevated despite easing goods inflation. The impact is higher rates, longer lead times, and increased importance of capacity assurance vs. lowest-cost sourcing.”
   [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services] 

• “Business has been very strong during what is usually a less active time of the year. Pricing is stable, and employment just where we want it to be. Supply chain strong with no challenges.”
   [Retail Trade] 

• “The utility industry continues to experience extended lead times, supply-chain constraints, material shortages, and pricing volatility. As a result, suppliers are often limiting quotation validity periods, with many RFQs carrying expiration dates as short as 24 hours. These conditions require timely evaluation and procurement decisions to mitigate the risk of price changes and availability issues.”
   [Utilities] 

• “We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  

========== 

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  

==========

CHART: ISM Services Index
(NMI®) JUNE 2026 Update

==========

  

CHART: ISM Services Index
12-Month History
JUNE 2026 Update

 ==========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <