Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JANUARY 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2026:

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CPI During January 2026: 325.252

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Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: +0.37% (+1.198 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.39% (+7.581 points)

[Y-o-Y prior = +2.68%]

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CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.444 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.5% (+8.108 points)

[Y-o-Y prior = +2.64%]

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The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During January 2025: 317.671

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CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2026 Update

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 7, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 7, 2026:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 227,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 232,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 219,500

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending February 06, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 06, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +8,500,000 Barrels (+1.02%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +20,800,000 Barrels (+2.53%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 844,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

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Employment Situation Report for JANUARY 2026

The Employment Situation Report for January, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +130,000

Previous Month (revised): +48,000

One-Year Previous: -48,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.4%
12-Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 8.4%
12-Months Previous: 7.5%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.41% (+$0.15)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.71% (+$1.33)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.7% (+$8.85)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.32% (+$52.79)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: 62.4%
12-Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.1 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JANUARY 2006 thru JANUARY 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2025:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.55% (+$4,034,000,000)

• Actual: -0.016% (-$118,000,000)

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The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Est. Retail Sales During December 2025: $734,967,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +2.43% (+$17,420,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru December 2026
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
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Challenger Job Cuts Report for JANUARY 2026

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for JANUARY, 2026:

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Job Cuts Announced During January 2026: 108,435

• Previous Month: 35,553

  > Change from previous month: +205% (+72,882 cuts)

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• One-Year Previous: 49,795

 > Change from one-year previous: +117.76% (+58,640 cuts)

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From Today's Report:

"...HIRING PLANS IN JANUARY

Last month, employers announced 5,306 hiring plans, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009. Prior to last month’s total, 2023 saw the lowest January total for hiring with 5,376. It is down 13% from the 6,089 hiring plans announced in the same month last year. It is down 49% from the 10,496 hiring plans announced in December 2025...."

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If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 31, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 31, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 231,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 209,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for DECEMBER 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,100,000

• Actual:   6,542,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 6,928,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -5.57% (-386,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,508,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -12.87% (-966,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,293,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.51% (-81,000)

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QUITS: 3,204,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: +3.52% (+109,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,762,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.57% (-93,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,251,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.33% (-169,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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DECEMBER 2010 thru DECEMBER 2025

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 30, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 30, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels (-0.4%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +16,600,000 Barrels (+2.03%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 835,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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ISM Manufacturing Index for JANUARY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for January, 2026:

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Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 52.6% (+4.7 points month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 47.9%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report...."

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The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•      ' ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.'
   [Transportation Equipment] 

•     'Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.'
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.' [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.'
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

•     'A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico -- which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.'
   [Chemical Products] 

•     'Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

•     'Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations.
  
  Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. 
  
  But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.'
   [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
  

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CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
January 2026 Update

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DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
January 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the complete ISM report

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