Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
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Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

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• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 18, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 18, 2025:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 223,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 217,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 213,500

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.2%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.8 %

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for December 2024

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2024:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.8%

• Actual: +0.45% (+3,266,000)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Est. Retail Sales During December 2024: 729,191,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +3.92% (+$27,519,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru December 2025
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE
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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 11, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 11, 2025:

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Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 217,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 203,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,750

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024:

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CPI During December 2024: 315.605

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: FLAT M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.89% (+8.859 points)

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.02% (+0.06 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.24% (+10.1 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During December 2023: 306.746

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
DECEMBER 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2024

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2024:

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Previous Month: +0.4%

• Actual: 0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.0%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.5%)

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• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.8% (prior = +1.1%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.0% (prior = +3.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
DECEMBER 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Employment Situation Report for December 2024

The Employment Situation Report for December 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +256,000

Previous Month (revised): 212,000
One Year Previous: 290,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Month: 7.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.28% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.93% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.28% (+$3.43)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.63% (+$42.87)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
DECEMBER 2004 THRU DECEMBER 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 3, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 3, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 414,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 4, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 4, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 201,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 211,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 213,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for November 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   8,098,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 7,839,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,931,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -9.33% (-833,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,269,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.39% (-300,000)

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QUITS: 3,065,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -12.83% (-451,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,765,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +14.17% (+219,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,126,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.3% (-287,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
November 2009 thru November 2024

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 28, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 28, 2024:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 211,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 27, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 27, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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