International Trade Balance Level for February, 2007

The International Trade Balance Level for February, 2007 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $ -60,300,000,000
Actual: $ -58,400,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade -- imports vs. exports -- between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Credit Status Report for February, 2007 Released Today

The Consumer Credit status report for February, 2007 was released by the Fed earlier this afternoon:

Actual: +$3,000,000,000

The above figures represent the month-to-month change in total outstanding, installment-based consumer credit; includes car loans and credit cards.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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U.S. Factory Orders Report for February, 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for February, 2007:

Predicted: +1.7%
Actual: +1.0%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Construction Spending during February, 2007

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department -- released the Construction Spending report for February, 2007:

Predicted: -1.0%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from last year: -2.4%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Durable Goods Orders Report for February, 2007 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for February, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: +3.4%
Actual: +2.5%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, microwave ovens, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Home Sales for February, 2007

The February, 2007 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted: 980,000

Actual New Home Sales: 848,000

------------------------------------------------------

Change from Last Month: -3.9%

Change from Last Year: -18.3%

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February, 2007 New Home Sales: Median Price: $250,000

February, 2007 New Home Sales: Average Price: $331,000


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Leading Economic Indicators for February, 2007

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for February, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.5%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

1. The Money Supply (M2)
   
2. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index
   
3. The interest rate spread between the yield on 10-year Treasury Notes and the Fed Funds Target Rate
   
   
4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
   
6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
   
9. Vendor performance
   
10. Building permits for new private housing

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Housing Starts in February, 2007

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for February, 2007:

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,450,000
Actual: 1,525,000
From Last Month: +9.0%
From One Year Ago: -28.5%

Building Permits:
Actual: 1,532,000
From Last Month: -2.5%
From One Year Ago: -28.6%


The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Industrial Production for February, 2007

The Industrial Production numbers for February, 2007 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +1.0%

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 81.3%
Actual: 82.0%

The above Industrial Production numbers represent the month-to-month change in physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

The Capacity Utilization Rate percentages represent the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, 2007

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, 2007:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The above numbers represent the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The CPI for February, 2007: 203.499 (the baseline 100 score is pegged to 1982-1984 data. In other words, consumer prices have more than doubled since the early 80's)

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food & Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, 2007

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:

• All Commodities Index
• Crude Energy Materials Index
• Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
• Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
• Finished Goods Index
  
• Finished Consumer Foods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Energy Goods Index
• Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
• Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Goods Less Energy Index
• Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
• Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
• Industrial Commodities Index
• Intermediate Energy Goods Index
• Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
  
• Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index
  

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for February, 2007

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February, 2007:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual : -0.1%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

Retail & Food Services Sales since February, 2006: +3.2%.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Treasury Budget for February, 2007

The U.S. Treasury Budget monthly account for February, 2007 was released today:

Predicted: -120,000,000,000
Actual: -$120,000,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the monthly balance on the U.S. federal government's "books" and is compiled by The Treasury Department. A positive number represents a surplus, while a negative represents a deficit.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting.

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Consumer Sentiment for February, 2007

Consumer Sentiment for February, 2007:

Predicted: 93.3
Actual: 91.3

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 96.9.

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U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Report for February, 2007

The Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales report for February, 2007 was released this afternoon:

Predicted: 12,600,000
Actual: 12,600,000

The above figures represent unit sales of American-made cars, minivans, SUV's and light trucks. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 24, 2007

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on February 24, 2007:

Predicted: 325,000
Actual: 338,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for February, 2007

Earlier today, the outplacement company Challenger released their report on corporate layoffs for February, 2007:

U.S. Job Cuts Announced during February, 2007: 84,014

When the corporate layoff numbers are high, consumer spending may decline, since there are less people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February, 2007

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (February, 2007) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 108.0
Actual: 112.5

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 110.3.

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Redbook Numbers for The Week of February 24, 2007

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on February 24, 2007 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +3.0%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.0% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in February of 2006.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 17, 2007

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on February 17, 2007:

Predicted: 325,000
Actual: 332,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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