PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2018

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2018:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.3%

----------------------

Disposable Personal Income:  +0.3%

----------------------

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: 0.0%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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Employment Cost Index for Q1, 2018

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the first quarter of 2018 was released by The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.8%

==================

• Reading from previous quarter: +0.6%
   
• Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +2.7%

==================

The yellow-highlighter figure represents the quarter-to-quarter change for the ECI, which is the Labor Department's broadest measure of employee-compensation costs, and includes wages, salaries and benefits.

==================

• Wages and Salaries: +0.9%
  
  
• Benefits: +0.7%

==================


From the Labor Department website:

"...The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries..."

==================

• The ECI report for the second quarter of 2018 will be released on July 31, 2018.
  
  

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.
  
  
• Charts and Tables

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Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2018

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2018:

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.6%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2018

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2018:

=========================================

Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2018

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for March 2018 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2018

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2018:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

----------------------

Disposable Personal Income:  +0.4%

----------------------

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.8%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for February 2018

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for February 2018:

Predicted: +0.05
Actual (CFNAI): +0.88

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

========

• Previous Month (revised): +0.02

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.37
  

========

Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February 2018

========

From Today's Report

"Index points to a pickup in economic growth in February

...Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.88 in February from +0.02 in January. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.37 in February from +0.16 in January..."

========

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

========

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report
  
  
• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  
  

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Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2018

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2018:

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.5%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.3%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2018

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2018 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2018

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2018:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.8%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q4 2017 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the fourth quarter of 2017 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: 0.0%

• Change from 12 Months Previous (Y/Y): +1.1%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +2.2%
Actual: +2.5%

• Change from 12 Months Previous (Y/Y): +1.7%

=============

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.

=============

Labor Productivity, Q4 2017, Revised

=============

Unit Labor Costs, Q4 2017, Revised

=============

For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2018

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2018:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

----------------------

Disposable Personal Income:  +0.9%

----------------------

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2018

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2018:

Predicted: +0.20
Actual (CFNAI): +0.12

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

========

• Previous Month (revised): +0.14

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.17
  

========

Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January 2018

========

From Today's Report

"...Index Points To Little Change In Economic Growth In January

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to +0.12 in January from +0.14 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.17 in January from +0.43 in December..."

========

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

========

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report
  
  
• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  
  

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Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2018

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2018:

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +1.0%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.6%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.8%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2018

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2018 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2018

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2018:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.5%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.8%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q4 2017 (Preliminary)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the fourth quarter of 2017 (preliminary):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: +1.1%
Actual: -0.1%

Reading from Previous Quarter, Revised: +2.7%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +0.9%
Actual: +2.0%

Reading from Previous Quarter, Revised: -0.1%

=============

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.

=============

Labor Productivity, Q4 2017

=============

Unit Labor Costs, Q4 2017

=============

For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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Employment Cost Index for Q4, 2017

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter of 2017 was released by The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.6%

==================

• Reading from previous quarter: +0.7%
   
• Change from 12 months previous (Y/Y): +2.6%

==================

The yellow-highlighter figure represents the quarter-to-quarter change for the ECI, which is the Labor Department's broadest measure of employee-compensation costs, and includes wages, salaries and benefits.

==================

• Wages and Salaries: +0.5%
  
  
• Benefits: +0.5%

==================


From the Labor Department website:

"...The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries..."

==================

• The ECI report for the first quarter of 2018 will be released on April 27, 2018.
  
  

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.
  
  
• Charts and Tables

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2017

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2017:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.4%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

----------------------

Disposable Personal Income:  +0.3%

----------------------

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2017

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2017:

Predicted: +0.25
Actual (CFNAI): +0.27

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

========

• Previous Month (revised): +0.11

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.42
  

========

Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December 2017

========

From Today's Report

"...Index points to a pickup in economic growth in December

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.27 in December from +0.11 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.42 in December from +0.43 in November..."

========

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

========

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report
  
  
• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  
  

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