PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.5%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - April 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 102.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.5

• Change from Previous Month: +4.62% (+4.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.

'Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups. In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2% to 56.2%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation both currently and over the next six months (measures not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index) deteriorated slightly.

'The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’. This contrasts with CEO assessments of recession risk: according to our CEO Confidence survey, only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Consumers were nonetheless upbeat about the stock market, with 48.2% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 25.4% expecting a decrease and 26.4 expecting no change.'

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012. While still relatively depressed, buying plans for autos rose slightly for a second month, and buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months. Meanwhile, buying plans for electronics products were largely unchanged except for smartphones, which saw renewed interest...."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2024 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
  ================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 97.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.1

• Change from Previous Month: -5.92% (-6.1 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future."

'In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.'

Peterson added: 'According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumer’s concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up. Average 12-month inflation expectations remained stable at 5.3% despite concerns about food and energy prices. Consumers ’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months rose slightly in April but is still well below the May 2023 peak.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
April 2024 Update

================

CHART: Reducing Spending to Save Money:
Where Consumers Are Planning to Cut Back

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
  ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.8%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - March 2024 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +1.0%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.5%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - February 2024 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +1.0%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0

• Actual: 106.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 110.9

• Change from Previous Month: -3.79% (-4.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024.

The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- fell back to 147.2 (1985 = 100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- slipped to 79.8 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead.

'The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.'

Peterson added: 'February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall inflation remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and gas prices, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labor market situation and the US political environment.'

Assessments of the present situation weakened in February, as consumers’ views of both business conditions and the employment situation became less favorable. Furthermore, consumers’ assessments of their personal financial situation (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index) also weakened.

Consumer expectations for the next six months deteriorated in February, driven by renewed pessimism regarding future business and labor market conditions. Consumers were also a bit less optimistic about their family financial situation over the next six months (a measure not included in calculating the Expectations Index). Additionally, consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months picked back up after falling over the previous three months.

On a six-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances dipped slightly. The share of consumers planning a vacation over the next six months also declined. Expectations that interest rates will rise over the year ahead picked up slightly to 42.7%, which may have influenced buying plans. Meanwhile, consumers remained upbeat about stock prices over the year ahead.

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down further to 5.2% in February. After peaking at 7.9% in mid-2022, expected inflation has now fallen to its lowest level since March 2020, when it stood at 4.5%. This aligns with continued slowing in consumer price inflation in government reports and fewer complaints about food and energy prices in our survey.

Present Situation

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions fell slightly in February.

    21.2% of consumers said business conditions were 'good,' down slightly from 21.3% in January.
    17.1% said business conditions were 'bad,' up from 15.3%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also less positive in February.

    41.3% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' down from 42.7% in January.

    13.5% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get,' up from 11.0%.

Expectations Six Months Hence          

Consumers were, on balance, more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in February.

    14.8% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 16.7% in January.
    15.5% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 16.0%.

Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was more pessimistic in February.

    14.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 15.6% in January.
    17.3% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 16.7%.

Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was, on balance, more optimistic in February.

    16.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.1% in January.
    11.3% expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12.5%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
February 2024 Update

================

CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession
Over The Next 12 Months
 FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (unrevised):

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: -0.1%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3% (revised):

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.2%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (revised):

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 101.0

• Actual: 102.6

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.3

• Change from Previous Month: -1.63% (-1.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations index is still below 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.

'Consumer confidence fell again in October 2023, marking three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index.

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Worries around war / conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.4%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.7%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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