PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (unrevised):

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: -0.1%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for December 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2023:

Previous Month+0.3%

• Actual:  +0.554%(+$3,909,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During December 2023: $709,890,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.59% (+$37,554,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2021 Thru December 2023
Seasonally Adjusted

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023:

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CPI During December 2023: 306.746

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.1% (-0.305 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.352% (+9.949 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% (+0.301 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.93% (+11.794 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During December 2022: 296.797

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
December 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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