PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2019

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2019:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.5%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars:  +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars:  +0.3% 

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Third (Final) Estimate for Q1, 2019

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019:

Predicted: +3.1%
Actual: +3.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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"...Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $13.8 billion, and payments increased $6.4 billion..."

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•  Real GDP rose by 2.9% in 2018.

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Chart: GDP, First Quarter 2019, Third / Final Estimate

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 21, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 21, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -12,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +52,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 469,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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New Home Sales During May 2019

The May 2019 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 680,000
Actual New Home Sales: 626,000

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• Change from One Month Previous: -7.8%
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -3.7%

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Median Price for a New Home during May 2019: $308,000

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Average Price for a New Home during May 2019: $377,200


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Inventory: 333,000 (6.4 months supply at current sales rate.)

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2019

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2019) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

• Actual: 121.5

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Previous Month (revised): 131.3

• Change from Previous Month: -7.464% (-9.8 points)

 

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'After two consecutive months of improvement, Consumer Confidence declined in June to its lowest level since September 2017 (Index, 120.6),' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decrease in the Present Situation Index was driven by a less favorable assessment of business and labor market conditions. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook also retreated.

The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Although the Index remains at a high level, continued uncertainty could result in further volatility in the Index and, at some point, could even begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Existing Home Sales - May 2019

The Existing Home Sales report for May, 2019 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 5,280,000
Actual: 5,340,000

•  Change from Previous Month: +2.5%
  
  
•  Change from One Year Previous: -1.1%

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Inventory: 1,920,000 (4.3 months supply)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During May: $277,700

Change from One Year Previous: +4.8%

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Average Price for A Used Home During May: $314,000

Change from One Year Previous: +3.4%

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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From Today's Report (Clips):

"...Existing-home sales rebounded in May, recording an increase in sales for the first time in two months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw a growth in sales, with the Northeast experiencing the biggest surge last month.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said the 2.5% jump shows that consumers are eager to take advantage of the favorable conditions. “The purchasing power to buy a home has been bolstered by falling mortgage rates, and buyers are responding.”
Existing-Home Sales Housing Snapshot June 2019

The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $277,700, up 4.8% from May 2018 ($265,100). May’s price increase marks the 87th straight month of year-over-year gains.

Though inventory is up, the months’ supply numbers remain near historic lows, which has a direct effect on price, according to Yun. “Solid demand along with inadequate inventory of affordable homes have pushed the median home price to a new record high,” he said.

Properties remained on the market for an average of 26 days in May, up from 24 days in April and equal to the 26 days in May of 2018. Fifty-three percent of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.

Given that housing and properties have been selling so quickly, Yun continues his call for new construction. “More new homes need to be built,” he said. “Otherwise, we risk worsening the housing shortage, and an increasingly number of middle-class families will be unable to achieve homeownership.”

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.07% in May, down from 4.14% in April. The average commitment rate across all of 2018 was 4.54%.

“The month of May ushered in the home sales upswing that we had been expecting,” said NAR President John Smaby, a second-generation Realtor® from Edina, Minnesota and broker at Edina Realty. “Sales are strengthening in all regions while we see price appreciation for recent buyers.”

First-time buyers were responsible for 32% of sales in May, unchanged from the 32% the month prior and up from the 31% recorded in May 2018. NAR’s 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers — released in late 2018 — revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 33%. 

All-cash sales accounted for 19% of transactions in May, down from April and a year ago (20% and 21%, respectively). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 13% of homes in May, down from 16% in April and from 14% a year ago.

Distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — represented 2% of sales in May, down from 3% in April and from 3% in May 2018. Less than 1% of May 2019 sales were short sales..."

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 15, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 15, 2019:

Predicted: 220,000
Actual: 216,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 222,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 14, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 14, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +55,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 482,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Housing Starts During May 2019

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May 2019:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,239,000
Actual: 1,269,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.9%
Change From One Year Previous: -4.7%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,290,000
Actual: 1,294,000

Change From Previous Month: +0.3%
Change From One Year Previous: -0.5%

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 7, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 7, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +53,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 485,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2019:

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Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.8%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - May 2019 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for May 2019

The Employment Situation Report for May 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +75,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.1%
Previous Month: 7.3%
12 Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.216% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.2%
Actual: +3.112% (+$0.84)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.216% (+$2.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +2.813% (+$26.19)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.8%
12 Months Previous: 62.8%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +189,000 to +153,000, and the change for April was revised down from +263,000 to +224,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 75,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  After revisions, job gains have averaged 151,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1 2019 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2019 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: +3.4%
Actual: +3.4%

Change from A Year Ago: +2.4%

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Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: -0.8%
Actual: -1.6%

Change from A Year Ago: -0.8%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Chart: Labor Productivity - Q1 2015 Through Q1 2019 (Revised)

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Chart: Unit Labor Costs | Q1 2015 Through Q1 2019 (Revised)

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• The preliminary productivity report for Q2 2019 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, August 15, 2019.

 
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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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