Housing Starts During September 2020

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for September 2020:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000
Actual: 1,415,000

Change From Previous Month: +1.945%% (+27,000 units)
Change From One Year Previous: +11.068% (+141,000 units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,500,000
Actual: 1,553,000

Change From Previous Month: +5.217% (+77,000 units)
Change From One Year Previous: +8.072% (+116,000 units)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

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CHART: Housing Starts
September 2020 Update

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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October 16, 2020 Bull Market Update

Since The March 9, 2009 Bear-Market Low:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 22,099.27 points (339.62%).  The March 9, 2009 close was 6,507.04.  The October 16, 2020 close was 28,606.31.
  
  
• The S and P 500 Index has gained 2,807.28 points (414.95%). The March 9, 2009 close was 676.53.  The October 16, 2020 close was 3,483.81.
  
  
• The NASDAQ Composite Index has gained 10,402.92 points (820.01%). The March 9, 2009 close was 1,268.64. The October 16, 2020 close was 11,671.56.

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History of The NASDAQ Composite Index

 

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- NYMEX Crude Oil for Future Delivery closed @ $40.78 per barrel

- The United States Prime Rate is 3.25%

- The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 0.00% - 0.25%

- The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note is currently @ 0.76%

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During September 2020

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for September 2020 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: -0.6%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +5.0%
Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 71.0%
Actual: 71.5% 

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April..."

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• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for September 2020

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for September 2020:

Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +1.907% (+$10,277,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During September 2020: $549,256,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.356% (+$27,921,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - September 2020 Update

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 From Today's Report:

"...Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: The Census Bureau continues to monitor response and data quality and has determined that estimates in this release meet publication standards."

 
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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 9, 2020

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 9, 2020 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +54,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 507,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 10, 2020

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 10, 2020:

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Predicted: 850,000

• Actual: 898,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 845,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 866,250

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Persons Claiming UI Benefits In All Programs

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2020

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2020:

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Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.4%

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.7%

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
September 2020 Update

 

 

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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