All 3 Majors Surged by More Than 10% On The Week

Discouraging reports about the U.S. economy weren't enough to keep stocks down this week, as investors anticipated and reacted bullishly to Wednesday's 50 basis point cut by the Fed.

For the week, the DJIA surged by 946.06 points (+11.291%), the NASDAQ Composite Index increased by 168.92 points (+10.884%), and the S and P 500 Index added 91.98 points (+10.491%).


Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

----------------------------------------------------------

DJIA: Closed @ 9,325.01 (+144.32)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,720.95 (+22.43)

S and P 500: Closed @ 968.75 (+14.66)

----------------------------------------------------------

NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $67.81/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $723.70/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7858 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.2725 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 1.00%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.97%

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Consumer Sentiment for October 2008

The Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (October 2008):

Predicted: 57.5
Actual: 57.6

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 70.3.

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Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for September 2008

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during September 2008:

Personal Consumption Expenditures
(a.k.a. Consumer Spending)
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.3%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 25, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 25, 2008:

Predicted: 475,000
Actual: 479,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q3, 2008

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter of 2008 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.3%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision. Next month, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" report for the above-referenced quarter, which will contain more accurate data. A "final" GDP report will be released later this year, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data on the above-referenced quarter.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Durable Goods Orders Report for September 2008 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for September 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: -1.1%
Actual: +0.8%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2008

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (October 2008) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 52.0
Actual: 38.0

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 61.4 (revised)

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New Home Sales for September 2008

The September 2008 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted: 450,000

Actual New Home Sales: 464,000

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Change from One Month Previous: +2.7%

Change from One Year Previous: -33.1%

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Median Price for a New Home during September: $218,400

Average Price for a New Home during September: $275,500

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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All 3 Majors Lost More Than 5% On The Week

A sharp decline in crude oil prices wasn't enough to keep stocks from falling this week, as investors braced for slow to negative growth in both domestic and foreign markets. Gold prices declined while the dollar gained considerable strength against the euro.

For the week, the DJIA lost 473.27 points (-5.346%), the NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 159.26 points (-9.306%), and the S and P 500 Index fell by 63.78 points (-6.781%).


Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

----------------------------------------------------------

DJIA: Closed @ 8,378.95 (-312.30)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,552.03 (-51.88)

S and P 500: Closed @ 876.77 (-31.34)

----------------------------------------------------------

NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $64.15/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $734.30/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7922 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.2624 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 1.50%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.697%

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Existing Home Sales for September 2008

The Existing Home Sales report for September 2008 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 4,920,000
Actual: 5,180,000
Change from One Month Previous: +5.5%
Change from One Year Previous: +1.4%

The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In September 2008: $191,600
Change from One Year Previous: -9.0%

Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In September 2008: $234,700
Change from One Year Previous: -8.8%

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 18, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 18, 2008:

Predicted: 470,000
Actual: 478,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Leading Economic Indicators for September 2008

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for September 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.2%

Actual: +0.3%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

1. The Money Supply (M2)
   
2. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index
   
3. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note and the Fed Funds
   
   
4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
   
6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
   
9. Vendor performance
   
10. Building permits for new private housing

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All 3 Majors Advanced On The Week On Cheaper Crude Oil

Despite disheartening economic reports released since last Friday, each of the 3 major indices added points on the week as the price on crude oil for future delivery sank to $71.85 per barrel in New York.

For the week, the DJIA added 401.03 points (+4.745%), the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 61.78 points (+3.745%), and the S and P 500 Index advanced by 41.33 points (+4.596%).


Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

----------------------------------------------------------

DJIA: Closed @ 8,852.22 (-127.04)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,711.29 (-6.42)

S and P 500: Closed @ 940.55 (-5.88)

----------------------------------------------------------

NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $71.85/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $782.90/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.742 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3478 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 1.50%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.938%

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Housing Starts During September 2008

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for September 2008:

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 880,000
Actual: 817,000
Change From Previous Month: -6.3%
Change From One Year Previous: -31.1%

Building Permits:
Actual: 786,000
Change From Previous Month:: -8.3%
Change From One Year Previous: -38.4%


The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Industrial Production for September 2008

The Industrial Production numbers for September 2008 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -2.8%

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 78.4%
Actual: 76.4%

The above Industrial Production numbers represent the month-to-month change in physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

The Capacity Utilization Rate percentages represent the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for October 2008

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (October):

Predicted: -10.0
Actual: -37.5

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Philadelphia Fed report.

Last month, the actual figure was +3.8.

For a national perspective of manufacturing conditions, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2008

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2008:

Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

The above numbers represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

--------------------------------------------------------

The CPI figure for September 2008: 218.783 (not seasonally adjusted)

Change from 09/2007 through 09/2008: +4.9%

The baseline 100 score is pegged to 1982-1984 data. In other words, in general, consumer prices have more than doubled since the early 80's.

--------------------------------------------------------

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food & Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 11, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 11, 2008:

Predicted: 475,000
Actual: 461,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for September 2008

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for September 2008:

Predicted: -0.6%
Actual: -1.2%

Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual : -0.6%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

• Change from 12 months previous: -1.0%
  
  

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2008

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: -0.4%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core PPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:

• All Commodities Index
• Crude Energy Materials Index
• Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
• Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
• Finished Goods Index
  
• Finished Consumer Foods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Energy Goods Index
• Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
• Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Goods Less Energy Index
• Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
• Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
• Industrial Commodities Index
• Intermediate Energy Goods Index
• Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
  
• Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index
  

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Each of The 3 Major Indices Lost Over 15% On The Week

Each of the 3 major indexes lost more than 15 percent on the week, the worst week ever for American equities. Crude oil for future delivery finished the week at $77.70 per barrel, a decline of $69.57 (47.24%) since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel on July 11, 2008. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, in concert with several central banks around the world, cut short-term interest rates by 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point.)

Stock Market Crash
For the week, the DJIA shed 1,874.19 points (-18.151%), the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 297.88 points (-15.296%), and the S and P 500 Index fell by 200.01 points (-18.195%).

Bear Market Update
Since closing with record highs on October 9, 2007, the DJIA has now declined by 5,713.34 points (40.336%), while the S&P 500 Index has lost 665.93 points (42.547%).


Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

----------------------------------------------------------

DJIA: Closed @ 8,451.19 (-128.00)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,649.51 (+4.39)

S and P 500: Closed @ 899.22 (-10.70)

----------------------------------------------------------

NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $77.70/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $849.90/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7458 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3408 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 1.50%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.861%

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Import and Export Price Indexes for September 2008

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on US Import and Export Price Indexes for September 2008:

Import Prices 
Predicted: -2.5%
Actual: -3.0%

===============

Export Prices
Actual: -1.0%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the U.S.
  
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the U.S. and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 4, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 4, 2008:

Predicted: 480,000
Actual: 478,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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All 3 Majors Declined On The Week Despite Passage of Bad-Debt Bailout Bill and Cheaper Crude Oil

All 3 major indexes declined on the week despite the creation of a new law that will permit the federal government to spend hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars buy Wall Street's bad debt, and cheaper crude oil. The week's economic reports added credibility to the notion that the U.S. is currently in recession.

For the week, the DJIA shed 817.75 points (-7.339%), the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 235.99 points (-10.809%), and the S and P 500 Index fell by 113.78 points (-9.38%).


Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

----------------------------------------------------------

DJIA: Closed @ 10,325.38 (-157.47)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,947.39 (-29.33)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,099.23 (-15.05)

----------------------------------------------------------

NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $93.88/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $834.80/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7261 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3772 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 2.00%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.644%

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Employment Situation Report for September 2008

The Employment Situation report for September 2008 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%


Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: -100K
Actual: -159K


Average Workweek
Predicted: 33.7 hrs
Actual: 33.6 hrs


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 6.1%
Actual: 6.1%

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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U.S. Factory Orders Report for August 2008

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for August 2008:

Predicted: -2.5%
Actual: -4.0%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 27, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on September 27, 2008:

Predicted: 475,000
Actual: 497,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for September 2008

Earlier today, the outplacement company Challenger released their report on corporate layoffs for September 2008:

U.S. Job Cuts Announced during September 2008: 95,094

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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ISM Manufacturing Index for September 2008

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for September 2008:

Predicted: 49.5%
Actual: 43.5%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country that are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: when the PMI is above 50%, U.S. manufacturing is expanding; when it's below 50%, the manufacturing sector is contracting.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the PMI was 49.9%

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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