U.S. Factory Shipments During April 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2025:

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Predicted: -3.5%

• Actual: -3.69% (-22,804,000,000)

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• April 2025 New Shipments: $594,614,000,000.
  
  
• March 2025 New Shipments: $617,418,000,000.
  

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• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$3,565,000,000 | +0.61% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
APRIL 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: FLAT (No Change)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -24.46% (-16.9 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods. Expected business conditions improved after mid-month, likely a consequence of the trade policy announcement. However, these positive changes were offset by declines in current personal finances stemming from stagnating incomes throughout May. Overall, consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 6.6%, inching up from 6.5% last month. This is the smallest increase since the election and marks the end of a four-month streak of extremely large jumps in short-run expectations. Notably, long-run inflation expectations fell back from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May.

This is the first decline seen since December 2024 and ends an unprecedented four-month sequence of increases. Given that consumers generally expect tariffs to pass through to consumer prices, it is no surprise that trade policy has influenced consumers’ views of the economy. In contrast, despite the many headlines about the tax and spending bill that is moving through Congress, the bill does not appear to be salient to consumers at this time..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in May 2025,
Ending Four Straight Months of Steep Declines
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.68% (-1.4 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -26.48% (-18.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture -- consumers continue to express somber views about the economy. The initial reaction so far echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3% this month. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike. Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans. The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations..."

=========

CHART: Consumers Anticipate Rising Unemployment
and Elevated Risks of Personal Job Loss
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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March 28, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

March 28, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in correction territory (CT) again, while the S&P 500 Index slid closer to CT...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -7.62% (-3,430.14 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -14.13% (-2,850.90 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -9.17% (563.21 points) - CHART

===========

 CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 March 28, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• The Fed is likely (current odds at 85%) to do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

===============

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March 21, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

March 21, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite Index finished the week in the correction zone.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -6.73% (-3,028.69 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.85% (-2,389.84 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.76% (-476.59 points) - CHART

===========

 CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 March 21, 2025 UPDATE
===============

The Fed is likely (current odds at 90%) to make no move with short-term rates at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

===============

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Durable Goods Orders During January 2025

The Durable Goods Orders report for January 2025 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: +2.0%

• New Orders: $286,002,000,000 (+$8,655,000,000 [+3.12%])

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CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

================

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the month-on-month change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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Durable Goods Orders During July 2024

The Durable Goods Orders report for July 2024 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

================

Predicted: +5.0%

• Actual: $289,645,000,000 (+$26,074,000,000 [+9.89%])

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JULY 2024 UPDATE

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the dollar amount of new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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El-Erian: ‘It’S Uncomfortably Possible’ That The Fed Will Push The Economy Into A Recession

VIDEO CLIP: Mohamed El-Erian "It’s Uncomfortably Possible’ That The Fed Will Push The Economy Into A Recession"

From the good folks at Yahoo Finance...

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