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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0
  • Actual: 97.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.1

  • Change from Previous Month: -5.92% (-6.1 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future."

'In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all 
income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.'

Peterson added: 'According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumer’s concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up. Average 12-month 
inflation expectations remained stable at 5.3% despite concerns about food and energy prices.
Consumers ’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months rose slightly in April but is still well below the May 2023 peak.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - April 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
April 2024 Update

================

CHART: Reducing Spending to Save Money: Where Consumers Are Planning to Cut Back
CHART: Reducing Spending to Save Money:
Where Consumers Are Planning to Cut Back

================

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Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0
  • Actual: 106.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 110.9

  • Change from Previous Month: -3.79% (-4.2 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024.

The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions
-- fell back to 147.2 (1985 = 100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- slipped to 79.8 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead.

'The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.'

Peterson added: 'February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall inflation remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and gas prices, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labor market situation and the US political environment.'

Assessments of the present situation weakened in February, as consumers’ views of both business conditions and the employment situation became less favorable. Furthermore, consumers’ assessments of their personal financial situation (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index) also weakened.

Consumer expectations for the next six months deteriorated in February, driven by renewed pessimism regarding future business and labor market conditions. Consumers were also a bit less optimistic about their family financial situation over the next six months (a measure not included in calculating the Expectations Index). Additionally, consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months picked back up after falling over the previous three months.

On a six-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances dipped slightly. The share of consumers planning a vacation over the next six months also declined. Expectations that interest rates will rise over the year ahead picked up slightly to 42.7%, which may have influenced buying plans. Meanwhile, consumers remained upbeat about stock prices over the year ahead.

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down further to 5.2% in February. After peaking at 7.9% in mid-2022, expected
inflation has now fallen to its lowest level since March 2020, when it stood at 4.5%. This aligns with continued slowing in consumer price inflation in government reports and fewer complaints about food and energy prices in our survey.

Present Situation

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions fell slightly in February.

    21.2% of consumers said business conditions were 'good,' down slightly from 21.3% in January.
    17.1% said business conditions were 'bad,' up from 15.3%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also less positive in February.

    41.3% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' down from 42.7% in January.

    13.5% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get,' up from 11.0%.

Expectations Six Months Hence          

Consumers were, on balance, more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in February.

    14.8% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 16.7% in January.
    15.5% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 16.0%.

Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was more pessimistic in February.

    14.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 15.6% in January.
    17.3% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 16.7%.

Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was, on balance, more optimistic in February.

    16.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.1% in January.
    11.3% expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12.5%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.
.."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - February 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
February 2024 Update

================

CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession Over The Next 12 Months - FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE

CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession
Over The Next 12 Months
 FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE

================

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Wednesday, November 01, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 101.0
  • Actual: 102.6

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.3

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.63% (-1.7 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations index is still below 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.

'Consumer confidence fell again in October 2023, marking three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index.

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Worries around war / conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - October 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2023 Update

================


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Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0
  • Actual: 103.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 108.7

  • Change from Previous Month: -5.24% (-5.7 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.'

Peterson added: 'Assessments of the present situation were little changed overall, due to divergent views on the state of business conditions and job availability. Fewer consumers said that business conditions were good, but fewer also said they were bad. Regarding the employment situation, slightly more consumers said that jobs were 'plentiful,' but also slightly more said that jobs were 'hard to get.' When asked about current family financial conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index), the share of respondents citing a ‘good’ situation fell again, and those citing ‘bad’ conditions rose, signaling rising concerns about current family finances.

'Expectations for the next six months tumbled back below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise -- making big-ticket items more expensive. Expectations for interest rates declined in September after surging in the prior month, but the outlook for stock prices continued to fall. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations have held steady over the past three months despite ongoing complaints about higher prices. Still, the measure of expected family financial situation, six months hence (not included in the Expectations Index) worsened further.

'The proportion of consumers saying recession is ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’ rose in September after dropping in August. The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos were flat but remained at an elevated level, while plans to purchase appliances continued to trend upward. But plans to buy homes -- more in line with rising interest rates -- continued to trend downward.'
..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - September 2023 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
September 2023 Update

================

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Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 116.0
  • Actual: 106.1

================

Previous Month (revised): 114.0

  • Change from Previous Month: -6.93% (-7.9 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- fell to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- declined to 80.2 (1985=100) in August, reversing July’s sharp uptick to 88.0. Expectations were a hair above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession, within the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, we still anticipate one is likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups -- and most notable among consumers with household 
incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000. Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - August 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 August 2023 Update

================


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Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0
  • Actual: 117.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 110.1

  • Change from Previous Month: +6.27% (+6.9 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - July 2023 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 July 2023 Update

================

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Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0
  • Actual: 109.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.5

  • Change from Previous Month: +7.02% (+7.2 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.'

'Assessments of the present situation rose in June on sunnier views of both business and employment conditions. Indeed, the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘not so plentiful’ widened, indicating upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform. Likewise, expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability.'

'While income expectations ticked down slightly in June, new questions included in this month’s release found a notably brighter outlook for consumers’ family finances: Around 30 percent expect their family’s financial situation to be ‘better’ in the next six months, compared to less than 14 percent expecting it to be ‘worse.’ This might reflect consumers’ belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable and that there will be further declines in inflation ahead. Indeed, the 12-month forward inflation expectations gauge fell to 6 percent in June, the lowest reading since December 2020.'

 'Although the Expectations Index remained a hair below the threshold signaling recession ahead, a new measure found considerably fewer consumers now expect a recession in the next 12 months compared to May. Meanwhile, on a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes have slowed, after picking up earlier in 2023. This may reflect rising costs to finance big-ticket items as the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, vacation plans within the next six months continued to flag, led largely by declines in plans to travel domestically. This is an important indicator of desires to spend on services ahead, which may be a signal that post-pandemic ‘revenge spending’ on travel may have peaked and is likely to slow over the rest of this year.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)  - June 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 June 2023 Update

================

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Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.9
  • Actual: 102.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.7

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.35% (-1.4 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.' Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 percentage points from 47.5% in April to 43.5% in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.' 

'Consumers’ inflation expectations remain elevated, but stable. Consumers in May expected inflation to average 6.1% over the next 12 months, essentially unchanged from 6.2% in April, though down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year. Nonetheless, consumers continued to view inflation as a major influence on their view of the US economy. Plans to purchase homes in the next six months held steady in May at around 5.6 percent, but was still notably down from 6 to 7 percent in Q4 2022. Meanwhile, plans to purchase autos and big-ticket appliances ticked up somewhat compared to April.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - May 2023 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 May 2023 Update

================

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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 104.0
  • Actual: 101.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.0

  • Change from Previous Month: -2.6% (-2.7 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 -- the level associated with a recession within the next year -- every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3, about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States, to April 19.

'While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. 'Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.'

'Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent, although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

 CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 April 2023 Update

================


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