PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  August, 2024:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2%

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• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Home Sales During August, 2024

The August, 2024 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 751,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 716,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -35,000 units (-4.66%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +64,000 units (+9.82%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During August, 2024: $420,600
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During August, 2024: $492,700

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Inventory: 467,000 (7.8 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
AUGUST, 2024 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 14, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 14, 2024:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 219,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 231,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,500

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for August 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2024:

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Index for August 2024: 100.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.02% (-5.3 points)

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• LEI for July 2024: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
AUGUST 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Existing Home Sales During August 2024

Existing Home Sales report for August 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 3,960,000

• Actual: 3,860,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -2.53% (-100,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -4.22% (-170,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,350,000 (4.2 months supply.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $416,700
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +3.09% (+$12,500)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'The home-buying process, from the initial search to getting the house keys, typically takes several months.'

'The rise in inventory -- and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply -- implies home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices,' Yun added. 'However, in areas where supply remains limited, like many markets in the Northeast, sellers still appear to hold the upper hand.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
AUGUST 2024 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024 was released this morning:

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Previous Month: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.7%  (prior = +2.2%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.3%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 6, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 6, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -1,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024:

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CPI During August 2024: 314.796

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.081% (+0.256 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.53 %(+7.77 points)

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.25% (+0.803 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.197% (+9.914 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During August 2023: 307.026

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for August 2024

The Employment Situation Report for August 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +142,000

Previous Month (Revised): 89,000
One Year Previous: 210,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12 Months Previous: 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.83% (+$1.30)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.69% (+$8.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.53% (+$41.20)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.7%
12 Months Previous: 62.8%

Average Workweek: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
AUGUST 2004 THRU AUGUST 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 30, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 30, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -6,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +1,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 418,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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