Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 106.0

• Actual: 106.4

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Previous Month (revised): 108.6

• Change from Previous Month: -2.026% (-2.2 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence dipped slightly in May, after rising modestly in April,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline in the Present Situation Index was driven solely by a perceived softening in labor market conditions. By contrast, views of current business conditions -- which tend to move ahead of trends in jobs -- improved. Overall, the Present Situation Index remains at strong levels, suggesting growth did not contract further in Q2. That said, with the Expectations Index weakening further, consumers also do not foresee the economy picking up steam in the months ahead. They do expect labor market conditions to remain relatively strong, which should continue to support confidence in the short run.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for May 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for May 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 59.0

• Actual: 58.4

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• Change from Previous Month: -10.43% (-6.8 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -29.55% (-24.5 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2021: 82.9

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From today's report:

"...The final May reading confirmed the early month decline in consumer sentiment, which fell 10.4% below April and reverted to virtually the same level of sentiment seen in March. This recent drop was largely driven by continued negative views on current buying conditions for houses and durables, as well as consumers’ future outlook for the economy, primarily due to concerns over inflation. At the same time, consumers expressed less pessimism over future prospects for their personal finances than over future business conditions.

Less than one quarter of consumers expected to be worse off financially a year from now.

Looking into the long term, a majority of consumers expected their financial situation to improve over the next five years; this share is essentially unchanged during 2022. A stable outlook for personal finances may currently support consumer spending. Still, persistently negative views of the economy may come to dominate personal factors in influencing consumer behavior in the future..."

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CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Monthly + 3-Month Moving Average
 May 2022 FINAL Reading

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +1.0

• Actual: +0.9%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.7%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.4%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

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CHART: Month-On-Month Change In
Consumer Spending
April 2022 Update

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.9%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 21, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 21, 2022:

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Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 210,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 206,750

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From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending May 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 14 was 1,346,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,317,000 to 1,315,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,347,500, a decrease of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 17, 1970 when it was 1,340,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,362,250 to 1,361,750..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 20, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 20, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -64,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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New Home Sales During April 2022

The April 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 650,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 591,000

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• Change from One Month Previous: -118,000 units (-16.643%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -218,000 units (-26.947%)

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Median Price for a New Home
during April 2022: $450,600 (New Record High)
 

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Average Price for a New Home
during April 2022: $570,300 (New Record High)

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Inventory: 444,000 (9.0 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales - April 2022 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2022:

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Predicted: +0.42

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.47

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• Previous Month (revised): +0.36

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.48
  

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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
April 2022 Update

  ==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
April 2022 Update

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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

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May 20, 2022 Stock Market Bear | Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index slipped further into bear market territory, while the DJIA and S&P 500 slumped deeper into correction.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.048% (-5,537.75 points) -- NASDAQ Composite: -29.287% (-4,702.82 points) -- S&P 500: -18.663% (-895.20 points) MORE: >> DJIA History <<

MORE: >> http://bit.ly/NASDAQ-History <<

MORE: >> http://bit.ly/SP500-Historyhttps:// <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/nasdaq-composite-history-chart.htm <<

  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 14, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 14, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 218,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 197,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 199,500

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9 percent for the week ending May 7, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 7 was 1,317,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 27, 1969 when it was 1,304,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 1,343,000 to 1,342,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,362,250, a decrease of 22,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 24, 1970 when it was 1,361,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 1,385,000 to 1,384,750..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

 

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Existing Home Sales During April 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for April 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 5,600,000
Actual: 5,610,000

•  Change from Previous Month: -2.435% (-140,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from One Year Previous: -5.872% (-350,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,030,000 (2.2 months supply; -4.3% year-on-year.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During April 2022: $391,200

Change from One Year Previous: +14.822% (+$50,500)

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Average Price for A Used Home During April 2022: $397,600

Change from One Year Previous: +9.2% (+$33,500)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,' said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. 'It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we'll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.'

'Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,' said Yun.

He also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.

'The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,' said Yun.

'Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages , thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,' he added. 'The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.'

Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, equal to both the number of days in March 2022 and in April 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in April 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in April, down from 30% in March and from 31% in April 2021.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in April, down from 28% in March and up from the 25% recorded in April 2021.

Distressed sales -- foreclosures and short sales -- represented less than 1% of sales in April, equal to the percentage seen in March and down from 2% in April 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.98% in April, up from 4.17% in March. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

Realtor.com®'s Market Trends Report in April shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+38.3%), Las Vegas (+32.6%), and Orlando (+30.7%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+6.8 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+5.3 percentage points) and Sacramento (+4.7 percentage points)..."

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
During April 2022

==================

 

 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 13, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 13, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -65,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Housing Starts During April 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for April 2022:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,780,000
Actual: 1,724,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.231% (-4,000 New Units)

• Change From One Year Previous: +14.551% (+219,000 New Units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,850,000
Actual: 1,819,000

Change From Previous Month: -3.193% (-60,000 New Permits)

• Change From One Year Previous: +3.06%  (+54,000 New Permits)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

 

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
April 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2022:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.903% (+$6,063,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During April 2022: $677,711,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.186% (+$51,281,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - April 2022 Update

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

 

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May 13, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

May 13, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index sinks further into bear market territory, while the DJIA and S&P 500 continue lower into the correction zone.

Since Record-Highs: -- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -12.508% (-4,602.99 points) -- NASDAQ Composite: -26.483% (-4,252.44 points) -- S&P 500: -16.109% (-772.67 points) MORE: >> https://bit.ly/Dow-History <<

MORE: >> http://bit.ly/NASDAQ-History <<

MORE: >> http://bit.ly/SP500-Historyhttps:// <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm <<

MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/nasdaq-composite-history-chart.htm <<

  

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