Leading Economic Index for June 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2025:

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Index for June 2025: 98.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.98% (-4.1 points)

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• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2025 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell further in June,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month. At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 12, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 12, 2025:

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Predicted: 235,000

• Actual: 221,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 228,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 229,500

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending July 5, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 5 was 1,956,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 11,000 from 1,965,000 to 1,954,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,957,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,955,250 to 1,952,750..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2025:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.3% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.1% 

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

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• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.7% (prior = +1.3%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.7% (prior = +3.2%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025:

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CPI During June 2025: 322.561

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Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.34% (+1.096 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.67% (+8.386 points)

[prior = +2.35%]

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CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.261% (+0.855 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.93% (+9.361 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

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The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During June 2024: 314.175

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JUNE 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 5, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 5, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 235,000

• Actual: 227,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 232,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 235,500

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending June 28, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 28 was 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 9,000 from 1,964,000 to 1,955,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,955,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,954,000 to 1,951,750..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================   

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 4, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 4, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +7,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 426,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 28, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 28, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 235,000

• Actual: 233,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 237,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 241,500

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending June 21, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 21 was 1,964,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,974,000 to 1,964,000. The 4 -week moving average was 1,954,000, an increase of 15,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,941,000 to 1,938,500..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================  

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Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2025

The Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +147,000

Previous Month (revised): 144,000
One Year Previous: 87,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.22% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.71% (+$1.30)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.07% (-$0.89)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.41% (+$40.96)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3%
Previous Month: 62.4%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JUNE 2005 THRU JUNE 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 27, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 27, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -29,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for MAY 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for May, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,400,000

• Actual:   7,769,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 7,395,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 7,901,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -1.67% (-132,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,503,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.26% (-70,000)

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QUITS: 3,293,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.85% (-62,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,601,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.84% (-64,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,242,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.35% (-72,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
MAY 2010 thru MAY 2025

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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