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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024:


=========================================

CPI During September 2024: 315.301

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.16% (+0.505 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.44 %(+7.512 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.34% (+1.092 points) M/M

Year-on-Year Change: +3.31% (+10.292 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During September 2023: 307.789

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

========================================

=========================================

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Saturday, September 28, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  August, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%
  • Actual: +0.2%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%
  • DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%
  • Actual: +0.1% 
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
  • Actual: +0.1%
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?

============

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Sunday, September 22, 2024

Leading Economic Index for August 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2024:

==============

Index for August 2024: 100.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

  • Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)

    • Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.02% (-5.3 points)

==============

  • LEI for July 2024: 100.4

  • LEI for June 2024: 101.0

  • LEI for May 2024: 101.2

  • LEI for April 2024: 101.7
     
  • LEI for March 2024: 102.4

  • LEI for February 2024: 102.6
     
  • LEI for January 2024: 102.6

  • LEI for December 2023: 103.1

  • LEI for November 2023: 103.3

  • LEI for October 2023: 103.8

  • LEI for September 2023: 104.7

  • LEI for August 2023: 105.5

  • LEI for July 2023: 105.9

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - AUGUST 2024 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
AUGUST 2024 UPDATE

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.'..."


==============
 

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Friday, September 13, 2024

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024 was released this morning:

===============================

Previous Month: +0.1%

  • Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.7%  (prior = +2.2%)

=============


Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.3%

  • Actual: +0.3%
Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.3%)

===============================

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index, Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - AUGUST 2024 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

==============

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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024:


=========================================

CPI During August 2024: 314.796

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.081% (+0.256 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.53 %(+7.77 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.25% (+0.803 point) M/M

Year-on-Year Change: +3.197% (+9.914 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2023: 307.026

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - AUGUST 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

========================================

=========================================

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Friday, August 30, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%
  • Actual: +0.5%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%
  • DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.2% 
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF)


===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - JULY 2024 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - JULY 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0
  • Actual: 103.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.9

  • Change from Previous Month: +1.37% (+1.4 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board®. 'Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.'

Peterson added: '
Consumers were likely rattled by the financial market turmoil in early August, as they were less upbeat about the stock market. In August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected a decrease (up from 23.1%). August’s write-in responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumer’s views of the US economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession: the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak.'..."
================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - AUGUST 2024 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2024 Update


========================================


=========================================

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Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Leading Economic Index for July 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2024: 100.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

  • Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)

    • Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.19% (-5.5 points)

==============

  • LEI for June 2024: 101.0

  • LEI for May 2024: 101.2

  • LEI for April 2024: 101.7
     
  • LEI for March 2024: 102.3

  • LEI for February 2024: 102.6
     
  • LEI for January 2024: 102.6

  • LEI for December 2023: 103.1

  • LEI for November 2023: 103.3

  • LEI for October 2023: 103.8

  • LEI for September 2023: 104.7

  • LEI for August 2023: 105.5

  • LEI for July 2023: 105.9

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - JULY 2024 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JULY 2024 UPDATE
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward."

==============
 

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Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024:


=========================================

CPI During July 2024: 314.540

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.116% (+0.365 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.89 %(+8.849 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.066% (+0.211 point) M/M

Year-on-Year Change: +3.171% (+9.812 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During July 2023: 305.691

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - JULY 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2024 Update

========================================

=========================================

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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0
  • Actual: 100.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.8

  • Change from Previous Month: +2.6% (+2.5 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in July to 100.3 (1985 = 100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined to 133.6 from 135.3 last month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions improved in July to 78.2. That’s up from 72.8 in June but still below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead). The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22, 2024.

'Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.'

'Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021.'

Peterson added: 'The proportion of consumers predicting a forthcoming recession ticked up in July but remains well below the 2023 peak. Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Financial Situation -- both currently and over the next six months -- was less positive. Indeed, assessments of familial finances have deteriorated continuously since
the beginning of 2024.'

Average 12-month inflation expectations remained stable at 5.4% in July, compared to a peak of 7.9% reported in 2022. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months dropped for the second month in a row to 50.3% -- the lowest since February 2024. Meanwhile, consumers were positive about the stock market, with 49.1% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead (the highest share since March), 23.5% expecting a decrease, and 27.4% expecting no change.

July’s write-in responses showed that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, and inflation (the rate of change in prices
), remain the key drivers of consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the US political situation and the labor market. Mentions about the forthcoming elections increased, although the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would impact the economy was lower than write-ins from July 2016.

2024 election would impact the economy was lower than write-ins from July 2016. On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-year low. While buying plans for cars were little changed, buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased slightly. Additionally, more consumers reported plans to buy a smartphone or laptop/PC in the next six months..."
================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) JULY 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JULY 2024 Update


========================================


=========================================

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Saturday, July 27, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.3%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (revised) +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.2%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%
  • DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT
  • Actual: +0.1% 
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF)


===================== 
CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - June 2024 Update
CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - June 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, July 19, 2024

Leading Economic Index for June 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2024: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

  • Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.71% (-5.0 points)

==============

  • LEI for May 2024: 101.3

  • LEI for April 2024: 101.7
     
  • LEI for March 2024: 102.3

  • LEI for February 2024: 102.6
     
  • LEI for January 2024: 102.6

  • LEI for December 2023: 103.1

  • LEI for November 2023: 103.3

  • LEI for October 2023: 103.8

  • LEI for September 2023: 104.7

  • LEI for August 2023: 105.5

  • LEI for July 2023: 105.9

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - JUNE 2024 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JUNE 2024 UPDATE
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment.

However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.'

NOTE: Starting with the September 2023 release, Leading Credit Index™ calculations (from 2020 to current) use the SOFR Overnight Financing Rate in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year instead of LIBOR rate. LIBOR remains in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year from 1990 to 2020..
."

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