Leading Economic Index for August 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for August 2023: 105.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.38% (-0.4 point)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.45% (-11.0 points)

==============

• LEI for July 2023: 105.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
August 2023 UPDATE

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4% in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3% in July. The LEI is down 3.8% over the six-month period between February and August 2023 -- little changed from its 3.9% contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023.)

'With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:+0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -3.0%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.5% (revised)
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.5%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
August 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
 August 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: +0.7%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.6%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.0%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
August 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023:

=========================================

CPI During August 2023: 307.026

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.437% (+1.335 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.67% (+10.855 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.23% (+0.701 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.35% (+12.925 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2022: 296.171

========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
August 2023 Update

========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.6%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.6%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: FLAT

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - July 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -4.4%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: +0.7%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -7.9%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
 July 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
 July 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.8%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
July 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023:

=========================================

CPI During July 2023: 305.691

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.191% (+0.582 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.18% (+9.415 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.16% (+0.492 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.65% (+13.756 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During July 2022: 296.276

========================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
July 2023 Update

========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.1%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for June 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2023: 106.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.748% (-0.8 point)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.39% (-11.0 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2023: 106.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.5
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
June 2023 UPDATE

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023 -- a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).

'The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months -- the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the run-up to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead.

We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.4% (revised)
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -6.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -1.9%
Actual: -0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -12.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
 June 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
 June 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.1%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: FLAT
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
June 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023:

=========================================

CPI During June 2023: 305.109

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.323% (+0.982 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +2.97% (+8.798 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.264% (+0.814 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.83% (+14.23 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During June 2022: 296.311

========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2023 Update

========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.8%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for May 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for May 2023: 106.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.744% (-0.8 point)

==============

• LEI for April 2023: 107.5
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.2
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.5
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

 

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
May 2023 UPDATE
 

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity.

While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:+0.3% (revised)
Actual: -0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.1% (revised)
Actual: -1.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -10.1%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
 May 2023 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
 May 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023:

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CPI During May 2023: 304.127

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.252% (+0.764 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.048% (+11.831 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.39% (+1.197 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.33% (+15.59 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During  May 2022: 292.296

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 May 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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