PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (revised) +0.4%

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - June 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for June 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2024: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.71% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JUNE 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment.

However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.'

NOTE: Starting with the September 2023 release, Leading Credit Index™ calculations (from 2020 to current) use the SOFR Overnight Financing Rate in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year instead of LIBOR rate. LIBOR remains in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year from 1990 to 2020..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: -0.2% (revised)
Actual: FLAT

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.6%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: -0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
June 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
June 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024:

=========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.175

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.034% (+0.106 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.97% (+9.066 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.117% (+0.374 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.27% (+10.093 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2023: 305.109

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.5%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - May 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2024:

=========================================

CPI During May 2024: 314.069

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.17% (+0.521 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.27% (+9.942 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.205% (+0.651 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.42% (+10.533 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May 2023: 304.127

========================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
May 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.5%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - April 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for April 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2024: 101.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.21% (-5.6 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.7
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.0
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.

While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in April 2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2% in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9% over the six-month period ending April 2024, slightly ahead of its 0.8% increase over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contribution to the Index..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.6% (revised)
Actual: +0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -1.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
April 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
April 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2024:

=========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.39% (+1.216 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.36% (+10.185 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.28% (+0.89 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.61% (+11.079 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2023: 303.363

========================================

 CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.8%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - March 2024 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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