PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.6%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.4%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.2%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.5%

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.1%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q3, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +2.5%

• Actual: +2.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q3 2022 - First Estimate

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 21, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 21, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +9,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 439,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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New Home Sales During September 2022

The September 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 600,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 603,000

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• Change from One Month Previous: -74,000 units (-10.93%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -129,000 units (-17.62%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During September 2022: $470,600 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During September 2022: $517,700

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Inventory: 462,000 (9.2 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
September 2022 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 102.5

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Previous Month (revised): 107.8

• Change from Previous Month: -4.92% (-5.3 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence retreated in October, after advancing in August and September,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index fell sharply, suggesting economic growth slowed to start Q4. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 -- a level associated with recession -- suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.'

'Notably, concerns about inflation -- which had been receding since July -- picked up again, with both gas and food prices serving as main drivers. Vacation intentions cooled; however, intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all rose. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting which would reduce retailers’ profit margins.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Leading Economic Index for September 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2022 this morning:

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Index for September 2022: 115.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.43% (-0.5 point)

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• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
September 2022 UPDATE

 

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year end,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. 'The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.

Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2022:

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CPI During September 2022: 296.808

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Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: +0.215% (+0.637 point)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.202% (+22.498 points)
  

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During September 2021: 274.310

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for September 2022

The Employment Situation Report for September 2022 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +263,000

Previous Month (Revised): 315,000
One Year Previous: 424,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 4.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 7.0%
12 Months Previous: 8.5%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.31% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.98% (+$1.54)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.31% (+$3.45)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.075% (+$43.85)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3%
Previous Month: 62.4%
12 Months Previous: 61.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
September 2022 Update

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 1, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 1, 2022:

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Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 219,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 190,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 206,500

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From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 17 were in New Jersey (1.8), California (1.7), Puerto Rico (1.6), New York (1.4), Alaska (1.2), Massachusetts (1.2), Rhode Island (1.2), Connecticut (1.1), and Nevada (1.1).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 24 were in Ohio (+1,586), North Carolina (+289), Tennessee (+286), Arkansas (+38), and Arizona (+35), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-5,715), New York (-1,404), New Jersey (-1,400), Missouri (-966), and Georgia (-799)..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 30, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 30, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +8,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 429,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August 2022

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for August 2022 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 11,000,000

• Actual:    10,053,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 11,170,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 10,629,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -5.42% (-576,000)
  

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Hires: 6,277,000

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Quits: 4,158,000

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Layoffs + Discharges: 1,460,000 

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Total Separations ^§: 5,976,000

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate - August 2022 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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