PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.6%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.6%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.7%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for October 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for October 2024:

==============

Index for October 2024: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.4% (-0.4 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.14% (-4.3 points)

==============

• LEI for September 2024: 99.9
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
OCTOBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast United States.

Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 16, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 16, 2024:

====================

Predicted: 219,000

• Actual: 213,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 219,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 217,750

====================

From Today's Report:

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 9, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 9 was 1,908,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000.

The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 1,873,000 to 1,872,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,879,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,928,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 1,874,500 to 1,874,250..."

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Existing Home Sales During October 2024

Existing Home Sales report for October 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 3,830,000

• Actual: 3,960,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: +3.4% (+130,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: +2.9% (+110,000 homes)

==========

Inventory: 1,370,000 (4.2 months supply.)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $407,200
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +4.00% (+$15,600)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The worst of the downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand. However, for most first-time homebuyers, mortgage financing is critically important. While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.'

'The ongoing price gains mean increasing wealth for homeowners nationwide,' Yun added. 'Additional inventory and more home building activity will help price increases moderate next year'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
OCTOBER 2024 UPDATE

==================

==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 15, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 15, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 430,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2024

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2024:

===============================

Previous Month: +0.1% (revised)

• Actual: 0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.2%  (prior; revised = +1.9%)

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5%  (prior; revised = +3.3%)

===============================

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
OCTOBER 2024 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2024

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2024:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.8%

• Actual: +0.4% (+2,841,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During October 2024: 718,867,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +2.85% (+$19,911,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2004 Thru December 2024
OCTOBER 2024 UPDATE - Seasonally Adjusted
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 9, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 9, 2024:

====================

Predicted: 219,000

• Actual: 217,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 221,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 8, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 8, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -9,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 429,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024:

=========================================

CPI During October 2024: 315.664

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.115% (+0.363 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.6 %(+7.993 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.202% (+0.649 points) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.33% (+10.378 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During October 2023: 307.671

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
OCTOBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  September, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Employment Situation Report for October 2024

The Employment Situation Report for October 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +12,000

Previous Month (Revised): 223,000
One Year Previous: 165,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Month: 7.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.37% (+$0.13)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.99% (+$1.36)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.37% (+$4.46)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.99% (+$46.65)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.7%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Workweek: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
OCTOBER 2004 THRU OCTOBER 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for October 2024

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for October 2024:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During October 2024: 55,597

• Previous month: 72,821
• Change from previous month: -23.65% (-17,224 cuts)

• One-Year Previous: 36,836 

• Change from one year previous: +50.9% (+18,761 cuts)

-------------------------------

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
October 2024 UPDATE

================

Challenger Report - Month by Month TOTALS
October 2024 UPDATE
================

 Job Cuts by INDUSTRY
YTD 2023 Thru YTD 2024
October 2024 UPDATE

   ================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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