Consumer Sentiment: Final Result for June 2017

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Result for June 2017 was released today:

Predicted: 94.5
Actual: 95.1

• Change from Last Month: -2.06%

• Change from 12 Months Ago: +1.711%

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From today's report:

"...Although consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since Trump was elected, the overall level still remains quite favorable. The average level of the Sentiment Index during the first half of 2017 was 96.8, the best half-year average since the second half of 2000, and the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans stood at 39 Index-points in June, nearly identical to the 38 point gap in February. The partisan divide still meant that June's Sentiment Index of 95.1 was nearly equal to both the average (95.7) between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats and the value for Independents (94.6). Surprisingly, the optimism among Republicans and Independents has largely resisted declines in the past several months despite the decreased likelihood that Trump's agenda will be passed in 2017. The most important policies to consumers are those that directly or indirectly affect their jobs, incomes, or their financial security. Fortunately, increasing uncertainty about future prospects for the economy has thus far been offset by the resurgent strength in the personal financial situation of consumers. The combination of continuing improvements in personal finances and increasing concerns about the economic outlook is typical around cyclical peaks. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of an imminent downturn nor do the data provide any indication of a resurgent boom in spending. Even with a much improved 2nd quarter, personal consumption spending is expected to advance during 2017 by about 2.3%..."

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Last month's final ICS reading was 97.1.

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2017

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2017:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%


The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.4%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.4%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q1, 2017

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "final" (third estimate) report for the first quarter of 2017 was released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +1.2%
Actual: +1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

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Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) decreased $48.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $11.2 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $27.9 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $26.5 billion in the fourth. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $11.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $60.4 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $9.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $45.1 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the first quarter, receipts increased $5.3 billion, and payments increased $14.7 billion.

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GDP, First Quarter 2017, Final Estimate

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 24, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 24, 2017:

Predicted: 241,000
Actual: 244,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 242,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 242,250
  

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 23, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 23, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +100,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +13,300,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 509,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2017) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 116.7
Actual: 118.9

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence increased moderately in June following a small decline in May,' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved to a nearly 16-year high (July 2001, 151.3.) Expectations for the short-term have eased somewhat, but are still upbeat. Overall, consumers anticipate the economy will continue expanding in the months ahead, but they do not foresee the pace of growth accelerating.'  

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved in June. Those saying business conditions are 'good' increased from 29.8 percent to 30.8 percent, while those saying business conditions are 'bad' declined from 13.9 percent to 12.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more positive. Those stating jobs are 'plentiful' rose from 30.0 percent to 32.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are 'hard to get' decreased slightly from 18.3 percent to 18.0 percent.

Consumers, however, were less optimistic about the short-term outlook in June. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased from 21.5 percent to 20.4 percent, however, those expecting business conditions to worsen declined marginally from 10.3 percent to 9.9 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market remained mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 18.6 percent to 19.3 percent, but those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 12.1 percent to 14.6 percent. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their income rose from 19.1 percent to 22.2 percent, but the proportion expecting a decline increased slightly from 8.7 percent to 9.2 percent..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 117.6 (revised.)

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for May 2017

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for May 2017:

Predicted: +0.32
Actual (CFNAI): -0.26

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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• Previous Month (revised): +0.57

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.04
  

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Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May 2017

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From Today's Report

"...Index Points To Slower Economic Growth in May.

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.26 in May from +0.57 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.04 in May from +0.21 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.08 in May from +0.10 in April. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 53 made negative contributions. Twenty-six indicators improved from April to May, while 56 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions..."

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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report
  
  
  
• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  
   

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Durable Goods Orders During May 2017

The Durable Goods Orders report for May 2017 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: -1.1%

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• Previous month, revised: -0.9%
  
  
• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
  

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Home Sales During May 2017

The May 2017 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 590,000
Actual New Home Sales: 610,000

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Change from One Month Previous: +2.9%

Change from One Year Previous: +8.9%

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Median Price for a New Home during May: $345,800
(All-Time Record High)

Average Price for a New Home during May: $406,400
(All-Time Record High)

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

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Chart: Cost of A Newly Built Home, USA - May 2017

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

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Leading Economic Index for May 2017

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2017 this morning:

==============

Index for May: 127.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 data.)

Predicted: +0.3%

Actual: +0.3%

• Previous Month: +0.2% (revised.)
  
  
• Two Months Previous: +0.4%

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May 2017

==============

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI continued on its upward trend in May, suggesting the economy is likely to remain on, or perhaps even moderately above, its long-term trend of about 2 percent growth for the remainder of the year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The improvement was widespread among the majority of the leading indicators except for housing permits, which declined again. And, the average workweek in manufacturing has recently shown no sign of improvement.'..."

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 17, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 17, 2017:

Predicted: 240,000
Actual: 241,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 238,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 244,750
  

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Existing Home Sales During May 2017

The Existing Home Sales report for May 2017 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:

Predicted: 5,550,000
Actual: 5,620,000

•  Change from Previous Month: +1.1%
  
•  Change from One Year Previous: +2.7%

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Inventory: 1,960,000 (4.2 months supply)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During May 2017: $252,800
(All-Time Record High)
Change from One Year Previous: +5.8%

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Average Price for A Used Home During May 2017: $294,600
(All-Time Record High)
Change from One Year Previous: +4.9%

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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Cost of A Used (Preowned) Home in The USA - May 2017

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From today's report:

"...Existing-home sales rebounded in May following a notable decline in April, and low inventory levels helped propel the median sales price to a new high while pushing down the median days a home is on the market to a new low, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions except for the Midwest saw an increase in sales last month...."

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• The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 16, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 16, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,500,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +9,100,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 509,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Housing Starts During May 2017

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May 2017:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,223,000
Actual: 1,092,000

Change From Previous Month: -5.5%
Change From One Year Previous: -2.4%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,249,000
Actual: 1,168,000

Change From Previous Month: -4.9%
Change From One Year Previous: -0.8%

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States,or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise --  and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2017

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2017:

Import Prices
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.7%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization for May 2017

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for May 2017 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -4.0%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 76.8%
Actual: 76.6% 

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 10, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 10, 2017:

Predicted: 243,000
Actual: 237,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 245,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 243,000
  

========

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 9, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 9, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -1,700,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +10,600,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 511,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for May 2017

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for May 2017:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.4%

Estimated Retail Sales During May: $473,800,000,000

Change from 12 Months Previous: +3.8%

=================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2017

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2017:

=========================================

Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Bull Market Update

Record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Standard and Poor's 500 Index today.  Here's a bull-market update for June 13, 2017.

Since the March 9, 2009 bear-market low:

•  S + P 500 Index: +260.716% (history)
  
  
• DJIA: +227.775% (history)
  
  
• NASDAQ Composite: +390.318% (history)

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2017

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2017 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: 0.0%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May 2017

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for May 2017:

=========

Predicted: 104.0
Actual: 104.5

• Change from Previous Month: No Change.

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +11.407%

=========

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - May 2017

=========

From today's report:

"...'The remarkable surge in optimism that began last year right after the election shows no signs of slowing down' said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. 'Small business owners are highly encouraged by the President’s regulatory reform agenda, and they remain optimistic there will be tax reform and health-care reform. This is a policy-driven phenomenon.'

The Index for May matched its strong performance in April of 104.5. That means the Index has been at a historically high level for six straight months. Five of the Index components posted a gain, four declined, and one remained unchanged.

The average employment change per firm was 0.34, which puts hiring activity in May near the highest levels in the 43-year history of the Index. Fifteen percent of owners reported hiring three workers per firm, 9 percent reported cutting 2.3 workers per firm.

A strong majority of owners, 59 percent, reported hiring or trying to hire in May, although 51 percent said they found few or no qualified workers. Remarkably, that was a problem for 86 percent of owners who said they tried to hire. Nineteen percent of all owners in the survey said finding qualified workers was their top concern, making it the second-biggest problem for small business.

'The tight labor market has been a persistent problem for small business owners for the past several months, and the problem appears to be getting worse,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'It’s forcing small business owners to increase compensation, which we’re seeing in this data, to attract new workers and keep the ones they have. But it also means a lot of small business owners are short-handed. They can’t keep up with customer demand because the labor pool isn’t producing enough qualified workers. It’s a significant structural problem in the economy that policymakers will have to watch.'

Twenty-eight percent reported plans to make capital outlays, a one-point gain from April but well below historical levels for periods of growth.

'Typically, in a strong economy, we see a lot more spending on capital,' said Dunkelberg. 'We’re seeing increased hiring activity and some other positive signs, but the capital-outlays component is the missing ingredient for robust economic growth.'

According to Duggan, the answer is tax reform.

'If Congress wants small businesses to invest in the economy, then they must cut taxes and simplify the code,' she said. 'The President’s tax plan would slash taxes for small businesses and level the playing field for businesses of every size and structure. Congress also has other good ideas for tax reform, but they need to stop talking and pass a bill.'

'We know, based on our data, that small business owners are watching very closely what is happening in Washington,' she continued. 'The optimism is based on the expectation of policy changes, and that means tax reform.'..."

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• Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

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The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 104.5.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 3, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 3, 2017:

Predicted: 241,000
Actual: 245,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 255,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 242,000
  

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 2, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 2, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +3,300,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +11,400,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 513,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2017

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2017 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 5,725,000
Actual:    6,044,000

• Previous Month (revised): 5,785,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 5,643,000

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Hires: 5,051,000

Total Separations: 4,973,000

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentage represents the estimated number of job openings in the United States during the indicated month.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Here's how the Labor Department defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.

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Productivity and Labor Cost Report for Q1 2017 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2017 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Reading from Previous Quarter: -0.6%

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Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +2.6%
Actual: +2.2%

Reading from Previous Quarter: +3.0%

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.

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Labor Productivity, Q1 2017 (Revised)

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Unit Labor Costs, Q1 2017 (Revised)

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For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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U.S. Factory Orders During April 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2017:

Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): +1.0%.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May 2017:

Predicted: 57.0%
Actual: 56.9%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service categories include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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The previous month's NMI reading was 57.5%.

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Here's a sampling of comments from survey participants:

•     "Lumber tariff effects are beginning to show up."
  (Construction)

•     "Business is progressing steadily. No real issues or adjustments to affect annual goals/efforts."
  (Finance and Insurance)

•     "General feeling is caution. Too much uncertainty."
  (Health Care and Social Assistance)

•     "Seeing an uptick in the overall activity within the oil and gas sector, which typically will cause a trickle-down effect on the majority of businesses."
  (Mining)

•     "Typical transition month in terms of fresh produce and other food related categories. End of spring items and beginning of summer. Gapping of some items. Beef is increasing in price, especially grilling meat cuts. I anticipate this to increase to over $1 per pound on some items as we approach the 4th of July holiday."
  (Accommodation and Food Services)

•     "Continuing to feel [the] effect of overheated commercial construction market — few bidders, higher prices. Scarce construction labor seems to be the driver."
  (Public Administration)

•     "Business outlook continues to be steady and meeting original projects, but some ups and downs in successive months."
  (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services)

•     "Overall, business conditions the past month were flat as compared with several months of growth. While levels haven’t decreased, it may be that overall conditions have reached a high watermark."
  (Retail Trade)

•     "Strong market conditions bring a renewed confidence."(Transportation and Warehousing)

Click here to view the complete ISM report

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Employment Situation Report for May 2017

The Employment Situation Report for May 2017 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +185,000
Actual: +138,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.4%
Actual: 4.3%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.4%
Previous Reading: 8.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1528%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Reading (revised): 62.9%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.22 [+0.1528%]. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 63 cents, or 2.5%. In May, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.00 [+0.1365%].


"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +79,000 to +50,000, and the change for April was revised down from +211,000 to +174,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.  Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000..." [Establishment Survey Data]

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Construction Spending During April 2017

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for April 2017:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: -1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Month (revised): +1.1%.

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.7%.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 26, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 26, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -6,400,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +5,700,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 509,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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ISM Manufacturing Index for May 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for May 2017:

Predicted: 54.6%
Actual: 54.9%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

The previous month's PMI reading was 54.8%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

•      "Sales have picked up compared to the last two months. Customer demand has increased."
  (Plastics and Rubber Products)

•     "Economy is still strong, but [the] political climate can change things very quickly."
  (Transportation Equipment)

•     "Global price increases for commodities."
  (Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components)

•     "Business (sales/production) is steady. Pricing pressures on raw materials. Skilled labor in short supply."
  (Furniture and Related Products)

•     "Agricultural demand very strong."
  (Chemical Products)

•     "Our business is definitely paying attention to developments with the Canadian lumber tariff announcement. The final outcome could change our fiber pricing."
  (Paper Products)

•     "OEM longer lead parts possibly longer lead time due to more orders."
  (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

•     "Business conditions are steady, and with competition increasing, it's making negotiations even more intense to reduce costs."
  (Machinery)

•     "Business is booming, and getting direct employees is increasingly difficult."
  (Fabricated Metal Products)

•     "Difficult to find qualified labor for factory positions."
  (Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products)

Click here to view the complete ISM report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 27, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 27, 2017:

Predicted: 239,000
Actual: 248,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 235,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 238,000
  

========

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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