PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2024:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +1.0%

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.5%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - February 2024 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 16, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 16, 2024:

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Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 210,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 212,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 211,250

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Leading Economic Index for February 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2024 this morning:

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Index for February 2024: 102.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: +0.097% (+0.1 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -6.2% (-6.8 points)

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• LEI for January 2024: 102.7
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
February 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1% in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4% decline in January. Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.6% -- a smaller decrease than the 3.8% decline over the previous six months.

'The U.S. LEI rose in February 2024 for the first time since February 2022,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years.

However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative. Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward.

The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in February 2024 to 112.3 (2016 = 100), after a 0.1% increase in January. The CEI rose 1.1% over the six-month period ending February 2024, up from 0.8% over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index were positive last month, with personal income less transfer payments and payroll employment having the strongest contributions to the Index..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) February 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2024 was released this morning:

Previous Month: +0.3%
Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.6%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.6%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
February 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2024:

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CPI During February 2024: 310.326

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.62% (+1.909 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.15% (+9.486 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.57% (+1.796 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.75% (+11.408 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During February 2023: 300.840

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
February 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for February 2024

Employment Situation Report for February 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +275,000

Previous Month (Revised): 229,000
One Year Previous: 287,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Month: 7.2%
12 Months Previous: 6.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.145% (+$0.05)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change) 
Predicted: +4.3%
Actual: +4.28% (+$1.42)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.44% (+$5.17)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.68% (+$42.07)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.3 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Payroll Employment
February 2022 thru February 2024

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 8,800,000

• Actual:   8,863,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 8,889,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 10,425,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -15.0% (-1,562,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,687,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -10.78% (-687,000)

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QUITS: 3,385,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -12.8% (-497,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,572,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -15.85% (-296,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,341,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -11.23% (-676,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
JANUARY 2024 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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