PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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CHART: Changes In Consumer Spending
July 2022 Update

 

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: FLAT
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 19, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 19,  2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -10,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 421,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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New Home Sales During July 2022

The July 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 550,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 511,000

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• Change from One Month Previous: -74,000 units (-12.65%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -215,000 units (-29.61%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During July 2022: $439,400 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During July 2022: $546,800

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Inventory: 464,000 (10.9 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales - July 2022 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 13, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 13, 2022:

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Predicted: 255,000

• Actual: 250,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 252,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 246,750

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From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 30 were in Connecticut (2.4), Puerto Rico (2.3), New Jersey (2.1), California (1.9), Rhode Island (1.8), Massachusetts (1.6), New York (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.6), Alaska (1.2), Illinois (1.2), and Nevada (1.2).


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 6 were in California (+2,759), New Jersey (+965), Texas (+723), South Carolina (+679), and Indiana (+582), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-7,341), Michigan (-1,075), Oklahoma (-921), Georgia (-522), and Maryland (-184)..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Existing Home Sales During July 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for July 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 5,000,000

• Actual: 4,810,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -5.87% (-300,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -20.23% (-1,220,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,310,000 (3.3 months supply.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $403,800
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +10.75% (+$39,200)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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From Today's Report:

"...'The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.'

'We're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building,' Yun added. 'However, it's not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price.'

Properties typically remained on the market for 14 days in July, the same as in June and down from 17 days in July 2021. The 14 days on market are the fewest since NAR began tracking it in May 2011. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in July 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

Realtor.com®'s Market Trends Report in July shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+36.2%), Memphis (+32.7%) and Orlando (+28.4%). Phoenix reported the highest increase in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+31.8 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+28.6 percentage points) and Austin (+27.8 percentage points)..."

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
July 2022 UPDATE

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Leading Economic Index for July 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2022 this morning:

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Index for July 2022: 116.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.5%

• Actual: -0.427% (-0.5 point)

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• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
July 2022 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, The Conference Board. 'Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy. The Conference Board projects the US economy will not expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short but mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2022:

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual:  +0.034%(+$230,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During July 2022: $682,815,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +10.277% (+$63,635,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - July 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Housing Starts During July 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for July 2022:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,500,000
Actual: 1,446,000

Change From Previous Month: -9.57% (-153,000 New Units)

• Change From One Year Previous: -8.07% (-127,000 New Units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,700,000
Actual: 1,674,000

Change From Previous Month: -1.3% (-22,000 New Permits)

• Change From One Year Previous: +1.15%  (+19,000 New Permits)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

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CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
 July 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 6, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 6, 2022:

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Predicted: 259,000

• Actual: 262,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 248,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 252,000

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From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 23 were in Connecticut (2.3), New Jersey (2.1), Puerto Rico (2.0), California (1.9), Rhode Island (1.8), Massachusetts (1.7), New York (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.5), Alaska (1.2), Illinois (1.2), and Nevada (1.2).


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 30 were in Connecticut (+4,790), Oklahoma (+997), North Carolina (+547), Washington (+372), and Nevada (+177), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-14,256), Kentucky (-2,201), Ohio (-1,640), Michigan (-1,425), and Illinois (-1,033)..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +9.8%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +5.8%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12 Month Percent Changes
July 2022 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2022:

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CPI During July 2022: 296.276.

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Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.012% (-0.035 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.525% (+23.273 points)
  

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During July 2021: 273.003.

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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CHART: Consumer Price Index,
12-Month Percentage Change,
Selected Categories,
July 2022 UPDATE

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 30, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 30, 2022:

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Predicted: 255,000

• Actual: 260,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 254,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 254,750

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From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 16 were in Puerto Rico (2.2), New Jersey (2.1), California (1.9), Connecticut (1.9), Rhode Island (1.8), New York (1.6), Massachusetts (1.5), Pennsylvania (1.5), Alaska (1.2), Illinois (1.2), and Nevada (1.2).


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 23 were in Kentucky (+1,051), Virginia (+283), New Mexico (+51), the Virgin Islands (+21), and South Dakota (+7), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-7,490), New York (-5,769), South Carolina (-3,170), California (-3,122), and Alabama (-2,125)..."

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June 2022

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for June 2022 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 11,050,000

• Actual:    10,698,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 11,303,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 9,852,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: +8.59% (+846,000)
  

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Hires: 6,374,000

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Quits: 4,237,000

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Layoffs + Discharges: 1,327,000

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Total Separations ^§: 5,931,000 

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate - June 2022 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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