Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 109.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.5

• Change from Previous Month: +7.02% (+7.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.'

'Assessments of the present situation rose in June on sunnier views of both business and employment conditions. Indeed, the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘not so plentiful’ widened, indicating upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform. Likewise, expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability.'

'While income expectations ticked down slightly in June, new questions included in this month’s release found a notably brighter outlook for consumers’ family finances: Around 30 percent expect their family’s financial situation to be ‘better’ in the next six months, compared to less than 14 percent expecting it to be ‘worse.’ This might reflect consumers’ belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable and that there will be further declines in inflation ahead. Indeed, the 12-month forward inflation expectations gauge fell to 6 percent in June, the lowest reading since December 2020.'

 'Although the Expectations Index remained a hair below the threshold signaling recession ahead, a new measure found considerably fewer consumers now expect a recession in the next 12 months compared to May. Meanwhile, on a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes have slowed, after picking up earlier in 2023. This may reflect rising costs to finance big-ticket items as the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, vacation plans within the next six months continued to flag, led largely by declines in plans to travel domestically. This is an important indicator of desires to spend on services ahead, which may be a signal that post-pandemic ‘revenge spending’ on travel may have peaked and is likely to slow over the rest of this year.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 June 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023:

=========================================

CPI During May 2023: 304.127

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.252% (+0.764 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.048% (+11.831 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.39% (+1.197 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.33% (+15.59 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  May 2022: 292.296

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 May 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.9

• Actual: 102.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.35% (-1.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.' Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 percentage points from 47.5% in April to 43.5% in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.' 

'Consumers’ inflation expectations remain elevated, but stable. Consumers in May expected inflation to average 6.1% over the next 12 months, essentially unchanged from 6.2% in April, though down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year. Nonetheless, consumers continued to view inflation as a major influence on their view of the US economy. Plans to purchase homes in the next six months held steady in May at around 5.6 percent, but was still notably down from 6 to 7 percent in Q4 2022. Meanwhile, plans to purchase autos and big-ticket appliances ticked up somewhat compared to April.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 May 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.421%(+$2,873,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During April 2023: $686,052,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.57% (+$10,775,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales During April 2023

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023:

=========================================

CPI During April 2023: 303.363

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.506% (+1.527 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.93% (+14.254 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.466% (+1.423 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.52% (+16.053 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  April 2022: 289.109

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 April 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for April 2023

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for April 2023 was released today:

Predicted: 64.0

• Actual: 63.5

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +2.42% (+1.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -2.61% (-1.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2023: 62.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, inching up less than two index points from March. Buying conditions for durables improved 11% primarily on the basis of easing perceptions of unaffordability. Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly from last month. These improvements were balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices..."

=========

CHART: Percent Mentioning High Interest Rates
or Tight Credit as Reasons
for Poor Buying Conditions

 

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: FLAT
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 104.0

• Actual: 101.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.0

• Change from Previous Month: -2.6% (-2.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 -- the level associated with a recession within the next year -- every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3, about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States, to April 19.

'While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. 'Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.'

'Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent, although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

 

 CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 April 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023:

=========================================

CPI During March 2023: 301.836

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.331% (+0.996 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.98% (+14.332 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.482% (+1.465 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.59% (+16.171 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  March 2022: 287.504

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
March 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 102.0

• Actual: 104.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.4

• Change from Previous Month: +0.774% (+0.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.

'While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated -- at 6.3%. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
March 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  December 2022:

=========================================

CPI During December 2022: 296.797

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.307% (-0.914 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.454% (+17.995 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.171% (+0.513 points)

Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.708% (+16.205 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During December 2021: 278.802

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
December 2022 Update 

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.4

• Change from Previous Month: +6.8% (+6.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs.

Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
December 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  November 2022:

=========================================

CPI During November 2022: 297.711

=========================================

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% (-0.301 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.11% (+19.763 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During November 2021: 277.948

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.8

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.7%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.7%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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