Will Privatizing Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Cause Mortgage Rates to Rise?

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Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: 0.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: -0.883% (-6,447,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During January 2025: 723,853,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +4.2% (+$29,157,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru January 2025
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 213,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.3% (prior = +1.8%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.1% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025:

=========================================

CPI During January 2025: 317.671

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.655% (+2.066 points)

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.00% (+9.254 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.57% (+1.835 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.26% (+10.219 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2024: 308.417

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

======================================== 

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for February 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for February 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 70.0

• Actual: 67.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -4.64% (-3.3 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -11.83% (-9.1 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.1
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for February 2024: 76.9

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month, dropping about 5% to reach its lowest reading since July 2024. The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups. Furthermore, all five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 12% slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy. Expectations for personal finances sank about 6% from last month, again seen across all political affiliations, reaching its lowest value since October 2023. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year. Interviews for this release concluded on February 4.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations. The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.3% this month. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic..."

 =========

  

Consumer Sentiment: Inflation Expectations
Surge Following Tariff Developments
February, 2025 UPDATE

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Employment Situation Report for January 2025

The Employment Situation Report for January 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +143,000

Previous Month (revised): 307,000
One Year Previous: 119,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.0%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.477% (+$0.17)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.06% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.183% (+$2.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.76% (+$44.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JANUARY 2005 THRU JANUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 1, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 1, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 218,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 208,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,600,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 8,156,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,889,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.5% (-1,289,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,462,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.62% (-325,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,197,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.04% (-242,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,771,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +10.21% (+164,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,269,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.77% (-150,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
December 2009 thru December 2024

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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U.S. Factory Shipments During December 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December 2024:

========

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.888% (-5,181,000,000)

========

• December 2024 New Shipments: $578,508,000,000.
  
  
• November 2024 New Shipments: $583,689,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  -$3,201,000,000 | -0.55% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
DECEMBER 2024 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Percent Change in Real Disposable Personal Income, Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +2.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

 

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q4, 2024 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 25, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 25, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 207,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
==============

Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 18, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 18, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 217,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 213,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.2%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.8 %

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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