PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July,  2024:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - JULY 2024 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 103.3

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Previous Month (revised): 101.9

• Change from Previous Month: +1.37% (+1.4 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board®. 'Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.'

Peterson added: 'Consumers were likely rattled by the financial market turmoil in early August, as they were less upbeat about the stock market. In August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected a decrease (up from 23.1%). August’s write-in responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumer’s views of the US economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession: the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak.'..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Durable Goods Orders During July 2024

The Durable Goods Orders report for July 2024 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: +5.0%

• Actual: $289,645,000,000 (+$26,074,000,000 [+9.89%])

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CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JULY 2024 UPDATE

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the dollar amount of new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

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New Home Sales During July, 2024

The July, 2024 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 668,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 739,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +71,000 units (+10.63%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +39,000 units (+5.57%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During July, 2024: $429,800
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During July, 2024: $514,800

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Inventory: 462,000 (7.5 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
JULY, 2024 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During July 2024

Existing Home Sales report for July 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 3,900,000

• Actual: 3,950,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: +1.28% (+50,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -2.47% (-100,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,330,000 (4.0 months supply.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $422,600
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +4.19% (+$17,000)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

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From Today's Report:

"..."Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates."..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JULY UPDATE

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Leading Economic Index for July 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2024 this morning:

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Index for July 2024: 100.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.19% (-5.5 points)

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• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JULY 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2024:

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Previous Month (revised): -0.2%

• Actual: +0.97% (+6,806,000)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During July 2024: $709,668,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +2.66% (+$18,418,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2004 Thru December 2024
JULY 2024 UPDATE - Seasonally Adjusted

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024:

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CPI During July 2024: 314.540

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.116% (+0.365 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.89 %(+8.849 points)

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.066% (+0.211 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.171% (+9.812 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During July 2023: 305.691

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JULY 2024

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July 2024:
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Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 93.7

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• Change from Previous Month: +2.4 % (+2.2 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +1.96 % (+1.8 points.)

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CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
JULY 2024 Update 

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From Today's Report:

"...The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, this is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 25% reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, up four points from June.

'Despite this increase in optimism, the road ahead remains tough for the nation’s small business owners,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line. Owners are heading towards unpredictable months ahead, not knowing how future economic conditions or government policies will impact them.'..."

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• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

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• The previous month's SBOI was 91.5.

• 12 months previous, the SBOI was 91.9.

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• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
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Employment Situation Report for July 2024

The Employment Situation Report for July 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +114,000

Previous Month (Revised): 179,000
One Year Previous: 184,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.4%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.23% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.63% (+$1.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.064% (-$0.77)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.33% (+$38.68)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Workweek: 34.2 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
July 2004 THRU July 2024

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 26, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 26, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -6,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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