Leading Economic Index for May 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2025:

==============

Index for May 2025: 99.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.27% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally,' said  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index.

However, consumers’ pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May’s overall decline.

With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal.

The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Housing Starts During May 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,392,000

• Actual: 1,256,000

Month-on-Month Change: -9.77% (-136,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -4.56% (-60,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,407,000

• Actual: 1,393,000

Month-on-Month Change: -2.04% (-29,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.00%  (-14,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MAY 2025 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: -0.9%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.7%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 13, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 13, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -11,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -36,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 14, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 14, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 245,000

• Actual: 245,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 250,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 245,500

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The 4-week moving average was 245,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 19, 2023 when it was 246,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 240,250 to 240,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending June 7, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 7 was 1,945,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 1,956,000 to 1,951,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,926,250, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 1,914,500 to 1,913,250..."

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for May 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for May 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -0.1%

• Actual: -0.91% (-$6,566,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During May 2025: $715,417,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +3.29% (+$22,782,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru May 2025
MAY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): -0.2%

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.4%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): -0.1% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.3% (prior = +0.5%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.2% (prior = +3.3%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MAY 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 7, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 7, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 245,000

• Actual: 248,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 248,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 240,250

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for
this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000..." 

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending May 31, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 31 was 1,956,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,904,000 to 1,902,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,914,500, an increase of 19,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,923,500..."

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 6, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 6, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -27,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 432,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025:

=========================================

CPI During May 2025: 321.465

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.21% (+0.67 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.35% (+7.396 points)

[prior = +2.31%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.21% (+0.694 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.79% (+8.88 points)

[prior = +2.78%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May 2024: 314.069

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
MAY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1, 2025 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2025 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Previous:  -0.8%
Actual: -1.5%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.3%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Previous: +5.7%
Actual: +6.6%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.9%

=============

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Labor Productivity + Unit Labor Costs
Q1 2021 Through Q1 2025 (REVISED)

===================   

From Today's Report

 

"...This is the first decline in nonfarm business sector labor productivity since the second quarter of 2022..."

 ===================

 Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

===================

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Employment Situation Report for MAY 2025

The Employment Situation Report for May 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +139,000

Previous Month (revised): 147,000
One Year Previous: 193,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.42% (+$0.15)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.87% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.42% (+$5.14)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.87% (+$46.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
MAY 2005 THRU MAY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for MAY 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for May 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During May 2025: 93,816

• Previous Month: 105,441

  > Change from previous month: -11.03% (-11,625 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 63,816

 > Change from one-year previous: +47.01% (+30,000 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,' said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Why are Companies Cutting in 2025?

'DOGE Impact' remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 284,044 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. Additionally, DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private Non-Profits, was cited in another 10,459 cuts.

Market and Economic Conditions were the second-most cited reason for workforce reductions, responsible for 131,257 cuts year to date, followed by Closings of stores, units, or plants, which led to 94,439 layoffs.

Restructuring accounted for 62,015 cuts, while Bankruptcy was attributed to 35,501. Notably, Technological Updates, including those related to AI implementation, led to 20,000 job cuts so far in 2025..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
MAY 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 31, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 31, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 240,000

• Actual: 247,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 239,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 235,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 30, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 30, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 436,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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U.S. Factory Shipments During April 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2025:

========

Predicted: -3.5%

• Actual: -3.69% (-22,804,000,000)

========

• April 2025 New Shipments: $594,614,000,000.
  
  
• March 2025 New Shipments: $617,418,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$3,565,000,000 | +0.61% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
APRIL 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,200,000

• Actual:   7,391,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,200,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 7,619,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -2.99% (-228,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,573,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -0.2% (-11,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,194,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.44% (-220,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,786,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +12.54% (+199,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,288,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.86% (-100,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
APRIL 2010 thru APRIL 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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