New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 22, 2025:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 216,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 222,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,750

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for September 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for September 2025:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: +0.164% (+$1,199,000,000)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Est. Retail Sales During September 2025: $733,258,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +4.26% (+$29,973,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru September 2025
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025:

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Previous Month (unrevised): -0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

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• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +2.1%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.5% (prior = +2.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 15, 2025:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 220,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week: 228,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,250

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Employment Situation Report for SEPTEMBER 2025

The Employment Situation Report for September, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +119,000

Previous Month (revised): -4,000
One Year Previous: +240,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.4%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.25% (+$0.09)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.79% (+$1.34)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.25% (+$3.07)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.79% (+$45.82)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.3%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

SEPTEMBER 2005 THRU SEPTEMBER 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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U.S. Factory Shipments During August 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for August, 2025:

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Predicted: +1.4%

• Actual: +1.4% (+8,444,000,000)

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• August, 2025 New Orders: $612,030,000,000.
  
  
• July, 2025 New Orders: $603,586,000,000.
  

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• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$12,385,000,000 | +2.04% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
AUGUST 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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ISM Manufacturing Index for OCTOBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for October, 2025:

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Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 49.1%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

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The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariffs landscape.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

•     'Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

•     'In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  

•     'Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

•     'Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

•     'The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products) 

•     'Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) 

•     'Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.'
   (Chemical Products)

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CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
October 2025 Update

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DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
October 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the complete ISM report

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for OCTOBER 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for October 2025:
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Predicted: 98.5

• Actual: 98.2

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• Change from Previous Month: -0.61% (-0.6 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +4.8% (+4.5 points.)

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CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
OCTOBER 2025 Update 

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• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

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From the Report:

 

"...OVERVIEW
Uncertainty, while lower than in September, remained high. The upcoming elections (Oct. Survey) and government shutdown likely played a role. Small business owners were reasonably optimistic at the start of the year (Optimism Index at 102.8), but it has been a downhill slide through the last nine or so months with the current reading closing in on the 52-year average of 98. Foreign policy dominates the headlines, with a focus on tariff policy, raising lots of consternation about the cost of inputs and pressures to raise prices. Sales were not strong, and profits took a hit in the third quarter; lots of owners reported profit declines.

• INFLATION

In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Despite the decline, price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted, 31% reported higher average prices (down 2 points), and 12% reported lower average selling prices (up 2 points). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September). Twelve percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), down 2 points from September.

• CREDIT MARKETS
  

A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 2 points from September’s highest reading of this year. In October, a net 1% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 6 points from September. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.7% in October, down 0.1 point from September. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from September..."

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• Previous Month's SBOI: 98.8

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 93.7

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