U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for June 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.194%(+$1,338,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During June 2023: $689,499,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.49% (+$10,123,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales During June 2023

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.4% (revised)
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -6.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -1.9%
Actual: -0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -12.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
 June 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
 June 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.1%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: FLAT
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
June 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023:

=========================================

CPI During June 2023: 305.109

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.323% (+0.982 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +2.97% (+8.798 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.264% (+0.814 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.83% (+14.23 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During June 2022: 296.311

========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2023 Update

========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023:

=========

Predicted: 90.0
Actual: 91.0

• Change from Previous Month: +1.79% (+1.6 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +1.68% (+1.5 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
June 2023 Update 

=========

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Halfway through the year, small business owners remain very pessimistic about future business conditions and their sales prospects, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses. Owners are still raising selling prices at an inflationary level to try to pass on higher inventory, labor, and energy costs.'...'

Key Findings Include:

    -- Forty-two percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from May but remaining historically very high.

    -- Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved 10 points from May to a net negative 40%, 21 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61%.

    -- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher improved seven points from May to a net negative 14%..."

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 89.4.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
=========

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Employment Situation Report for June 2023

Employment Situation Report for June 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +209,000

Previous Month (Revised): 306,000
One Year Previous: 370,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.36% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.35% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.65% (+$7.47)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$41.72)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate
June 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for May 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 10,000,000

• Actual:    9,824,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 10,320,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,443,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.148% (-1,619,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 6,208,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.15% (-337,000)

-----------

QUITS: 4,015,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.59% (-193,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,555,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +4.93% (+73,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,871,000

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate
May 2023 UPDATE

=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 1, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 1, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 250,000

• Actual: 248,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 236,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 253,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 24, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 24, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 270,000

• Actual: 239,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 265,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 257,500

====================

 From Today's Report

"...The 4-week moving average was 257,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021 when it was 260,000..."

 ====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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New Home Sales During May 2023

The May 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Predicted: 700,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 763,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from One Month Previous: +83,000 units (+12.206%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: +127,000 units (+19.97%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During May 2023: $416,300 
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During May 2023: $487,300

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 428,000 (6.7 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

 

CHART: New Home Sales
May 2023 Update

================================

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Leading Economic Index for May 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for May 2023: 106.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.744% (-0.8 point)

==============

• LEI for April 2023: 107.5
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.2
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.5
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

 

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
May 2023 UPDATE
 

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity.

While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:+0.3% (revised)
Actual: -0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.1% (revised)
Actual: -1.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -10.1%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
 May 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
 May 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month: +0.2%
Actual: -0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.1%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1% (revised)
Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
May 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2023:

=========================================

CPI During May 2023: 304.127

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.252% (+0.764 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.048% (+11.831 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.39% (+1.197 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.33% (+15.59 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  May 2022: 292.296

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 May 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 3, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 3, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 250,000

• Actual: 261,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 233,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 237,250

====================

 From Today's Report

"...[261,000] is the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021 when it was 264,000..."

 ====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May 2023

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May 2023:

==========

Predicted: 51.0%

• Actual: 50.3%  (-1.6 points month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 51.9%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May for the fifth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 50.3 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 35 of the last 36 months, with the lone contraction in December of last year..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "...'Restaurant sales continue to track positive year over year, up an average of 8% past month. Employment needs have leveled off, and we are in a position to evaluate and upgrade rather than just maintain. Supply chain pressures have eased overall with some categories still hot spots. We are in a position to continue investing in technology upgrades and restaurant remodels.'
  [Accommodation & Food Services]
  

• 'Overall slowing growth and market conditions dragging on some construction sectors.'
  [Construction]
  

• 'As a higher-education institute, enrollment will have a major impact on our institution. Factors to consider will be the economy (state and national), as well as continued funding for education. Our enrollment is currently projected to drop 2.5%, which will have a negative effect on our budget.'
  [Educational Services]
  

• 'Pent-up demand for services is driving strong revenue performance, but expenses (labor and supplies) continue to put pressure on margins, hindering the financial forecast. There is modest improvement in financial metrics, but it is becoming clear we will have to find ways to do more with less. Supply chains are stabilizing, though some segments remain choppy. The overall outlook, however, suggests the forecast is good for the next quarter. Pent-up demand for services is also causing capacity constraints, but we appear to be managing appropriately at this time.'
  [Health Care & Social Assistance]
  

• 'Electronic components supply is strong, and lead times are nearly back to pre-pandemic.'
  [Information]
  

• 'Economy is slowing amid increased financial banking and leasing activity. Credit standards have increased, and approvals have fallen -- thus, a tight credit situation.'
  [Management of Companies & Support Services]
  

• 'Everything seems to have leveled off: not getting any worse, not getting any better.'
  [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
  

• 'Lead times are starting to shorten, due in part to greater transportation availability. Prices, in general, are continuing to increase but at a slower pace. Supply chain is becoming much more reliable.'
  [Public Administration]
  

• 'Overall business is good, and there has not been a significant change in direction.'
  [Retail Trade]
  

• 'Business has significantly increased, with more orders, newer customers and more activity in general. More end users are getting back to business as usual, fighting for lower prices and taking a few more days to pay. The leverage point seems to have shifted back to end users, which is healthy.'
  [Transportation & Warehousing]
  

• 'Business conditions continue to remain elevated as CapEx (capital expenditures) spending in clean energy follows regulatory demands.'
  [Utilities]
  

• 'Supply is plentiful, freight is moving quickly and costs are coming down. This is a 180-degree change from a year ago. Also, sales demand is down.'
  [Wholesale Trade]..."
  
  

===========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  
  
•  Charts

==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
(NMI®) May 2023 Update

==========

 

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Employment Situation Report for May 2023

Employment Situation Report for May 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +339,000

Previous Month (Revised): 294,000
One Year Previous: 364,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Month: 3.4%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 6.6%
12 Months Previous: 7.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.33% (+$0.11)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.304% (+$1.38)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.038% (+$0.44)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.4% (+$37.71)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate
May 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 9,400,000

• Actual:    10,103,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 9,745,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,755,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.054% (-1,652,000)
  

=============

Hires: 6,115,000

-----------

Quits: 3,793,000

-----------

Layoffs + Discharges: 1,581,000 

-----------

Total Separations ^§: 5,708,000

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate
April 2023 UPDATE

=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023:

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Predicted: -0.20

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.07

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• Previous Month (revised): -0.37

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.22
  

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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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 CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Inflation Cycles
April 2023 Update

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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

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