Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2021

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August 2021) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 125.0

• Actual: 113.8

================

Previous Month (revised): 125.1

• Change from Previous Month: -9.033% (-11.3 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence retreated in August to its lowest level since February 2021 (95.2),' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Concerns about the Delta variant -- and, to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices -- resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects. Spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all cooled somewhat; however, the percentage of consumers intending to take a vacation in the next six months continued to climb. While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Pending Home Sales Index for July 2021

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) report for July 2021 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:

==========

Predicted: Unchanged.

• Actual: 110.7

==========

-- Previous Month (revised): 112.7

-- 12 Months Previous: 121.0

•  Change from Previous Month: -1.775% (-2.0 points)
  
  
•  Change from One Year Previous: -8.512% (-10.3 points)

==========

• Click here to view Pending Home Sales Index data.
  
  
• PHSI Methodology
  

========

 

From the NAR website:

• An index above 100 coincides with a historically high level of home sales activity.
  
  
• An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be analyzed. Coincidentally, 2001 was the first of four consecutive record years for existing-home sales. 2001 sales are fairly close to the higher level of home sales expected in the coming decade relative to the norms experienced in the mid-1990s. As such, an index of 100 coincides with a historically high level of home sales activity.
  

========

 

From Today's Report:

"...Pending home sales dipped modestly in July, noting two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®.  Only the West region registered a month-over-month gain in contract activity, while the other three major U.S. regions reported drops. All four regions saw transactions decrease year-over-year.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, declined 1.8% to 110.7 in July. Year-over-year, signings fell 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

'The market may be starting to cool slightly, but at the moment there is not enough supply to match the demand from would-be buyers,' said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. 'That said, inventory is slowly increasing and home shoppers should begin to see more options in the coming months.

'Homes listed for sale are still garnering great interest, but the multiple, frenzied offers -- sometimes double-digit bids on one property -- have dissipated in most regions,' Yun said. 'Even in a somewhat calmer market, a number of potential buyers are still choosing to waive appraisals and inspections.'

As of July, 27% of buyers bypassed appraisal and inspection contingencies. By refraining from these evaluations, in most cases, buyers are looking to accelerate the homebuying process, according to Yun.

July Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 6.6% to 92.0 in July, a 16.9% decrease from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 3.3% to 104.6 last month, down 8.5% from July 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South declined 0.9% to an index of 130.9 in July, down 6.7% from July 2020. The index in the West rose 1.9% in July to 99.8, but still down 5.7% from a year prior.

The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

====================

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales are not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population..."

========
 

Housing Snapshot
Pending Home Sales
July 2021

 ========

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for August 2021

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for August 2021 was released today:

Predicted: 70.0

• Actual: 70.3

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -13.424% (-10.9 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -5.128% (-3.8 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for July 2021: 81.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2020: 74.1

=========

From today's report:

"...There was no lessening in late August in the extent of the collapse in consumer sentiment recorded in the first half of the month. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade. The Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other monthly surveys since 1978. The losses were especially large in the Expectations Index, and widespread across all demographic groups, regions, and the outlook for the economy. Personal financial prospects continued to worsen due to smaller income gains amid higher inflationary trends. Consumers' extreme reactions were due to the surging Delta variant, higher inflation, slower wage growth, and smaller declines in unemployment. The extraordinary falloff in sentiment also reflects an emotional response, from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end and lives could return to normal.

The August collapse of confidence does not imply an imminent downturn in the economy. There was a similar episode which occurred in September 2005, with comparable declines in the Sentiment Index (13.7% in 2005 vs. 13.4% in 2021). The cause of the steep falloff in 2005 was the devastation from hurricane Katrina and rising energy prices. The impact of 9/11 was another non-economic event that had an immediate impact on consumers' expectations and emotions. Although economic expectations began to improve by year-end, the emotional impact on spending patterns lasted for a much longer time. That same type of persistent impact on spending patterns is now likely to reoccur..."

========= 

 

CHART: Personal Financial Prospects
for The Year Ahead

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2021

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2021:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.25%

• Actual: +0.3%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.8%

• Actual: +1.1%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +1.1%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.7%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

===================== 

CHART: Month-on-Month Change in Personal Income
July 2021 Update

=====================

=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: 0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: 0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 21, 2021

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 21, 2021:

====================

Predicted: 350,000

• Actual: 353,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 349,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 366,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 20, 2021

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 20, 2021 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -75,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 432,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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New Home Sales During July 2021

The  July 2021 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Predicted: 700,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 708,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from One Month Previous: +7,000 units (+0.999%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -264,000 units (-27.16%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
during July 2021: $390,500

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
during July 2021: $446,000

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 367,000 (6.2 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================ 

 

CHART: New Home Sales
July 2021 Update

 

================================

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

 

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2021:

==================

Predicted: +0.25

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.53

==================

• Previous Month (revised): -0.01

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.23
  

==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
July 2021 Update

==================

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
July 2021 Update

 ====================

From Today's Report

"...Index Points To A Pickup In Economic Growth In July

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.53 in July from –0.01 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and three categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.23 in July from +0.01 in June..."

==================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

 

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Leading Economic Index for July 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2021 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2021: 116.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: +1.1%

• Actual: +0.87% (+1.0 point)

==============

• LEI for June 2021: 115.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2021: 114.4
  
  
• LEI for April 2021: 113.0
  
  
• LEI for March 2021: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2021: 110.1
   
• LEI for January 2021: 110.1
  
  
• LEI for December 2020: 109.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

Chart: Leading Economic Index
July 2021 Update

==============

Chart: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
July 2021 Update

 

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020, is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year. While the Delta variant and/or rising inflation fears could create headwinds for the US economy in the near term, we expect real GDP growth for 2021 to reach 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still robust 4.0 percent growth rate for 2022.'..."

==============

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  
  

• Click Here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.
  
  

============== 

 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 13, 2021

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 13, 2021 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -76,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 435,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Housing Starts During July 2021

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for July 2021:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,600,000
Actual: 1,534,000

Change From Previous Month: -7.03% (-116,000 units)
Change From One Year Previous: +2.472% (+37,000 units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,600,000
Actual: 1,635,000

Change From Previous Month: +2.572% (+41,000 permits)
Change From One Year Previous: +6.031% (+93,000 permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts - July 2021 Update

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================

 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2021

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2021:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -1.122% (-$7,012,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During July 2021: $617,719,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +15.781% (+$84,197,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - July 2021 Update

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

 

 

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During July 2021

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for July 2021 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.9%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.9%
Actual: +1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.0%
Actual: 76.1% 

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in July after moving up 0.2 percent in June. In July, manufacturing output rose 1.4 percent. About half of the gain in factory output is attributable to a jump of 11.2 percent for motor vehicles and parts, as a number of vehicle manufacturers trimmed or canceled their typical July shutdowns. Despite the large increase last month, vehicle assemblies continued to be constrained by a persistent shortage of semiconductors; the production of motor vehicles and parts in July was about 3-1/2 percent below its recent peak in January 2021. The output of utilities decreased 2.1 percent in July, while the index for mining rose 1.2 percent.

At 101.1 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in July was 6.6 percent above its year-earlier level but 0.2 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.7 percentage point in July to 76.1 percent, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average..."

 ===============

CHART: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate

  ===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August 2021

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  (NY Fed) released the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for this month (August 2021):

===========

Expected: +15.0

• Actual: +18.3

Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

===========

The July 2021 Figure: +43.0 

===========

===========

From Today's Report:

"...Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though growth was significantly slower than last month’s record-setting pace. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-five points to 18.3. New orders increased modestly, and shipments grew slightly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories were somewhat higher. Employment and the average workweek increased modestly. Input prices continued to rise sharply, and the pace of selling price increases set another record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with substantial increases in employment and prices expected..."

 

===========

About This Survey, From The NY Fed Website:

"...Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead..."

===========

• Click here to view the full New York Fed report.

===========

• For a national perspective on manufacturing in the United States, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

===========

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August 13, 2021 Bull-Market Update

August 13, 2021 Bull-Market Update

Since The March 9, 2009 Bear-Market Low: -- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +445.799% -- NASDAQ Composite: +1,068.41% -- S&P 500: +560.43% MORE >> https://bit.ly/Dow-History <<

MORE >> http://bit.ly/NASDAQ-History <<

MORE >> http://bit.ly/SP500-Historyhttps:// <<

 

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for August 2021

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for August 2021 was released today:

Predicted: 80.0

• Actual: 70.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -13.547% (-11.0 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -5.263% (-3.9 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for July 2021: 81.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2020: 74.1

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumers reported a stunning loss of confidence in the first half of August. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.5% from July, to a level that was just below the April 2020 low of 71.8. Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy: the only larger declines in the Sentiment Index occurred during the economy's shutdown in April 2020 (-19.4%) and at the depths of the Great Recession in October 2008 (-18.1%).

The losses in early August were widespread across income, age, and education subgroups and observed across all regions. Moreover, the loses covered all aspects of the economy, from personal finances to prospects for the economy, including inflation and unemployment.

There is little doubt that the pandemic's resurgence due to the Delta variant has been met with a mixture of reason and emotion. Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy's performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end. 

In the months ahead, it is likely that consumers will again voice more reasonable expectations, and with control of the Delta variant, shift toward outright optimism. Consumers' reaction to Delta's modestly higher precautionary measures indicates the difficulty of producing optimal policy responses..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Attractive Prices vs Job Income Certainty

=========


The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2021

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2021:

=========================================

CPI During July 2021: 273.003

=========================================

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.481% (+1.307 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.365% (+13.902 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During June 2021: 271.696

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July 2021

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for July 2021:

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Predicted: 102.0
Actual: 99.7

• Change from Previous Month: -2.732% (-2.8 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +0.911% (+0.9 point.)

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
July 2021 Update

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From today's report:

"...'Small business owners are losing confidence in the strength of the economy and expect a slowdown in job creation,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'As owners look for qualified workers, they are also reporting that supply chain disruptions are having an impact on their businesses. Ultimately, owners could sell more if they could acquire more supplies and inventories from their supply chains.'..."

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• Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

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The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 102.5.

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• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June 2021

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for June 2021 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 9,500,000
Actual:    10,073,000 (Record High)

• Previous Month (revised): 9,483,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 6,112,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: +64.807% (+3,961,000)
  

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Hires: 6,719,000 

Total Separations ^§: 5,584,000 

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From Today's Release:

"...Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on June 2021 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Data

Data collection for the JOLTS survey was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While 42 percent of data are usually collected by phone at the JOLTS data collection center, most phone respondents were asked to report electronically. However, data collection was adversely impacted due to the inability to reach some respondents that normally respond by phone. The JOLTS weighted response rate for June was 53 percent, while weighted response rates prior to the pandemic averaged 67 percent. More information about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the JOLTS survey, including information about the JOLTS estimation methodology, is available at www.bls.gov/covid19/job-openings-and-labor-turnover-covid19-june-2021.htm..."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate - June 2021 Update

  

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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