Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Third (FINAL) Estimate for Q2, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third (FINAL) estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: -0.6% (revised)

• Actual: +3.8%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the third / final estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q2, 2025 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

CHART: Contributions to Change in Real GDP
Q2, 2025 -  THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

 ============  

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP
by Industry Group | Q2, 2025 - FINAL ESTIMATE

 ============  

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for AUGUST 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.6%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 20, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 20, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 218,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 232,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 237,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During August 2025

 The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for August 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,429,000

• Actual: 1,307,000

Month-on-Month Change: -8.54% (-122,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -6.04% (-84,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,362,000

• Actual: 1,312,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.67% (-50,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -11.11%  (-164,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Leading Economic Index for August 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2025:

==============

Index for August 2025: 98.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.51% (-0.5 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.9% (-4.0 points)

============== 

• LEI for July 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signaling more headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months. Meanwhile, the contribution of the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April.

'Besides persistently weak manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators, labor market developments also weighed on the Index with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow.

A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026.

The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025, a substantial slowdown from 2.8% in 2024.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 13, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 13, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 235,000

• Actual: 231,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 264,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 240,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 12, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 12, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -9,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -2,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 6, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 6, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 250,000

• Actual: 263,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 236,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 240,500

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...In the week ending September 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021 when it was 268,000..."

 ====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025:

=========================================

CPI During August 2025: 323.976

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.287% (+0.928 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.92% (+9.18 points)

[prior = +2.7%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.3% (+0.99 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.11% (+9.953 points)

[prior = +3.06%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2024: 314.796

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.7

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.6% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.1% (prior = +1.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.9% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 5, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 5, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +5,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 424,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for AUGUST 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for August 2025:
=========

Predicted: 100.5

• Actual: 100.8

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: +0.5 % (+0.5 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +10.53% (+9.6 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
AUGUST 2025 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...INFLATION

The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from July to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading of this year. Despite the decline, price increases remain above the average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Eleven percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), unchanged for the third consecutive month. Tariffs may be starting to impact pricing. Unadjusted, 33% reported higher average prices (down 4 points), and 13% reported lower average selling prices (up 1 point). 

Price hikes were most frequent in construction (42% higher, 12% lower), finance (41% higher, 15% lower), manufacturing (40% higher, 8% lower), and services (39% higher, 3% lower). Notably, the percent of firms raising prices in the wholesale industry fell 32 points from last month. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 26% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 2 points from July.


CREDIT MARKETS

A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from July. Credit availability is not a serious problem for small firms. In August, a net 6% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 1 point from July. In August, the average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.1%, down 0.6 points from July and the lowest reading since May 2023. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 2 points from July. The last time the percent of business owners borrowing on a regular basis was below 23% was in November 2021..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 100.3

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 91.2

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JULY 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for July, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,300,000

• Actual:   7,181,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,357,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -2.4% (-176,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,504,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -4.3% (-323,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,308,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.62% (-143,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,208,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.37% (-182,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,808,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +3.61% (+63,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,289,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.67% (-145,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JULY 2010 thru JULY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Employment Situation Report for AUGUST 2025

The Employment Situation Report for August, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +22,000

Previous Month (revised): 79,000
One Year Previous: 71,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 4.2%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.1%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12 Months Previous: 7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.27% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.69% (+$1.30)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.27% (+$3.42)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.39% (+$40.94)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3%
Previous Month: 62.2%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

AUGUST 2005 THRU AUGUST 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 29, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 29, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +2,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 30, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 30, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 237,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 229,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 231,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

ISM Manufacturing Index for August 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (+0.7 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.0%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     ' A 50-percent tariff on imports from Brazil, combined with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s elimination of the specialty sugar quota, means certified organic cane sugar -- and everything made with it -- is about to get significantly more expensive.'
    (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     ' Orders across most product lines have decreased. Financial expectations for the rest of 2025 have been reduced. Too much uncertainty for us and our customers regarding tariffs and the U.S./global economy.'
    (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to be unstable, with suppliers adding surcharges ranging between 2.6% to 50%.'
    (Petroleum + Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to wreak havoc on planning/scheduling activities. New product development costs continue to increase as unexpected tariff increases are announced -- for example, 50% duties on imports from India, and increases to all countries up from original 10%. Our materials/supplies are now rising in price, so our sell pricing is again being reviewed to ensure we keep a sustainable margin.
  
  Plans to bring production back into U.S. are impacted by higher material costs, making it more difficult to justify the return.'
    (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     ' The construction industry, especially home building, is still at a lower level. With new construction at a low level, our new sales are impacted. We are mainly now relying on replacement business. Cost of goods sold is higher due to tariff-impacted goods.'
    (Machinery)
  

 

•     "Domestic sales remain flat but are down four percent from plan by unit volume [tariff pricing].
  
  Export demand is falling as customers do not accept tariff impacts, which likely will require some production transfers out of the U.S. Supplier deliveries remain consistent with ocean shipping costs dropping significantly.
  
  Tariff costs have biggest financial impact but also costs of copper and of steel products.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

 

•     ' The trucking industry continues to contract. Our backlog continues to shrink as customers continue to hold off on buying new equipment. This current environment is much worse than the Great Recession of 2008-09. There is absolutely no activity in the transportation equipment industry.
  
  This is 100% attributable to current tariff policy and the uncertainty it has created. We are also in stagflation: Prices are up due to material tariffs, but volume is way off.'
    (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     ' Very tentative domestic market, with home building and remodeling not very active at all. Inflation, among other factors, is starting to impact consumer buying power, leading to negative signs for our order files. International markets are upended due to the unpredictability of on-again, off-again tariff activity.'
    (Wood Products)
  

 

•     ' We’ve implemented our second price increase. "Made in the USA" has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components. Total price increases so far: 24%; that will only offset tariffs.
  
  No influence on margin percentage, which will actually drop. In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce. These are high-paying and high-skilled roles: engineers, marketing, design teams, finance, IT and operations.
  
  The administration wants manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but we are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It’s survival.'
    (Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components)
  

 

•     ' There is still uncertainty in the construction market. Large expansions or investment are hampered by the unknown of costing and the economy. The markets we operate in can be strong short term, but there is an underlying feeling that has you questioning for how long.'
    (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
August 2025 Update

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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