New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 27, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 27, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 201,000

• Actual: 199,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 215,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending December 26, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 26, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -1,700,000 Barrels (-0.203%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +26,900,000 Barrels (+3.32%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 836,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS
  

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During November 2025

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for November, 2025 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2% month-on-month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.5%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Predicted: FLAT
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.9%
Actual:  76.0% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.5%

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization for both October and November as well as revised estimates for May through September. IP rose 0.2% in November after ticking down 0.1% in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months.

Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4% in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8% of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5% above its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average..."

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 20, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 20, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 214,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 224,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (INITIAL) Estimate for Q3, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FIRST (INITIAL) estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +3.8% (revised)

• Actual: +4.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the third / final estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q3, 2025 - FIRST / INITIAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

CHART: Contributions to Change in Real GDP
Q3, 2025 - FIRST / INITIAL ESTIMATE

 ============  

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for NOVEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, 2025:

=========================================

CPI During November 2025: 324.122

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: N/A

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.74% (+8.629 points)

[prior = N/A]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3

 - > Actual: N/A

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.63% (+8.478 points)

[prior = N/A]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During November 2024: 315.493

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 13, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 13, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 226,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 237,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 217,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for OCTOBER 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.026% (+$189,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During October 2025: $732,633,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +3.47% (+$24,563,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru OCTOBER 2025
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Employment Situation Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Employment Situation Report for November, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +64,000

Previous Month (revised): -105,000
One Year Previous: +261,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Month: N/A
12-Months Previous: 4.2%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.7%
Previous Month: N/A
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.14% (+$0.05)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.51% (+$1.25)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.43% (+$5.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.51% (+$42.88)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: N/A
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

NOVEMBER 2005 THRU NOVEMBER 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 6, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 6, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 236,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 192,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for OCTOBER 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for October, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,400,000

• Actual:   7,670,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,658,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: +0.16% (+12,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,615,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: +0.72% (+55,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,149,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.76% (-201,000)

-----------

QUITS: 2,941,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -8.58% (-276,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,854,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +3.69% (+66,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,050,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.45% (-235,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
OCTOBER 2010 thru OCTOBER 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

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Leading Economic Index for SEPTEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2025:

==============

Index for September 2025: 98.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.34% (-3.4 points)

============== 

• LEI for August 2025: 98.6 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7 

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index. Subindexes that contributed negatively to the LEI were consumer expectations and ISM® New Orders Index, followed by manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods & materials, initial claims for unemployment Insurance (inverted), and the yield curve.

However, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers' new orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft did contribute positively to the Index. The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown.

Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for SEPTEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +2.9%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +3.1%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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U.S. Factory Shipments During SEPTEMBER 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for September, 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.4%

• Actual: +0.192% (+1,172,000,000)

========

• September, 2025 New Orders: $612,636,000,000.
  
  
• August, 2025 New Orders: $611,464,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$32,570,000,000 | +5.38% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for November, 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During November 2025: 71,321

• Previous Month: 153,074

  > Change from previous month: -53.41% (-81,753 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 57,727

 > Change from one-year previous: +23.55% (+13,594 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...WHY ARE COMPANIES CUTTING IN 2025?

In November, Restructuring led all reasons with 20,217 for a total of 128,255 in 2025. Store, unit, or department Closing accounted for 17,140 in November, and 178,531 for the year.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited for 6,280 cuts in November. So far this year, AI is responsible for 54,694 layoff plans. Since 2023, when this reason was first cited, AI has led to 71,683 job cut announcements.

Market and Economic Conditions were cited for 15,755 job cuts in November. So far this year, 245,086 job cuts have been attributed to market and/or economic conditions. Tariffs have been cited for 7,908 job cuts this year with 2,061 occurring in November.

Though the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has not been the cause of job cut announcements in two months, “DOGE Impact” remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 293,753 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors.

An additional 20,976 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, which reflects the loss of federal funding to private and non-profit entities..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

 Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 29, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 29, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 191,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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