Leading Economic Index for NOVEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November, 2025:

==============

Index for November, 2025: 97.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.31% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.74% (-3.8 points)

============== 

• LEI for October 2025: 98.2 
   
• LEI for September 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in both October and November,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2025:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• Real Disposable Personal Income: +0.1% 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

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 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 16, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 16, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +4,400,000 Barrels (+0.53%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +34,300,000 Barrels (+4.25%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 840,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 17, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 17, 2026:

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Predicted: 203,000

• Actual: 200,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 199,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 201,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During DECEMBER 2025

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for December, 2025 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.0%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +2.5%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual:  +0.2% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +2.0%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.3% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.5%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.5%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 

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• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for November 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -0.11% (-$780,000,000)

• Actual: +0.614% (+$4,492,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Est. Retail Sales During November 2025: $735,904,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +3.33% (+$23,729,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2006 Thru November 2025
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 10, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 10, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 198,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 207,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 205,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 9, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 9, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +3,600,000 Barrels (+0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +29,100,000 Barrels (+3.61%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 836,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, 2025:

=========================================

CPI During December 2025: 324.054

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.021% (-0.068 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.68% (+8.449 points)

[prior = +2.74%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > Actual: -0.025% (-0.081 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.64% (+8.499 points)

[prior = +2.63%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During December 2024: 315.605

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
DECEMBER 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Housing Starts During October 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for October 2025:

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Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,306,000

• Actual: 1,246,000

Month-on-Month Change: -4.59% (-60,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.84% (-106,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,412,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.12%  (-16,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Employment Situation Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Employment Situation Report for December, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +50,000

Previous Month (revised): +56,000

October, 2025: -173,000
One-Year Previous: +323,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.4%
Previous Month: 4.5%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.4%
Previous Month: 8.7%
12-Months Previous: 7.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.33% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.76% (+$1.34)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.032% (+$0.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$45.82)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12-Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

DECEMBER 2005 thru DECEMBER 2025

   ===================

 

 Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Month-on-Month Change
DECEMBER 2023 thru DECEMBER 2025

 =================== 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 3, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 3, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 211,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 2, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 2, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels (-0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +24,000,000 Barrels (+2.97%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 832,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (BALANCE SHEET)
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS
  

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for NOVEMBER 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for November, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,146,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,449,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -4.07% (-303,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 8,031,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -11.02% (-885,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,115,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.62% (-192,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,161,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: +4.25% (+129,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,687,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.99% (-52,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,080,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -0.14% (-7,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
NOVEMBER 2010 thru NOVEMBER 2025

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=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 48.0%

• Actual: 47.9% (-0.3 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.2%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products]
  

 

•     'Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30% below their historical buying patterns. Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.'
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

 

•     'In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall. Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products. In November, layoffs impacted about 9% of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Orders continue to drop for most of our businesses. Many plants are not running near full capacity. Make to order being utilized where possible.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don’t look too good, as bookings are down 25 percent compared to the first two months of 2025.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products]
  

 

•     'Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It’s cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall.'
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components]
  

 

•     'Global logistics remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Tariffs are influencing equipment pricing and procurement strategies. Large-scale data center programs are absorbing and reducing availability of resources for other sectors.' 
  [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products]
  

 

•     '2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  

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CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
December 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
December 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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