PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.8%

• Actual: -0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4%

• Actual: +0.9%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Durable Goods Orders During January 2025

The Durable Goods Orders report for January 2025 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: +2.0%

• New Orders: $286,002,000,000 (+$8,655,000,000 [+3.12%])

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CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the month-on-month change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 22, 2025:

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Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 242,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 21, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  February 21, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 430,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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New Home Sales During January 2025

The January, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 734,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 657,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -77,000 units (-10.49%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -7,000 units (-1.05%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During January, 2025: $446,300
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During January, 2025: $510,000

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Inventory: 495,000 (+34,000 units / 7.38% Year-on-Year)

• 9.0 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JANUARY 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 98.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 105.3

• Change from Previous Month: -6.65% (-7.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.

'Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.'

February’s fall in confidence was shared across all age groups but was deepest for consumers between 35 and 55 years old. The decline was also broad-based among income groups, with the only exceptions among households earning less than $15,000 a year and between $100,000–125,000.

Guichard added: 'Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs. References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics.

'There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.'

Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation were less positive, retreating from the series highs reached in January. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®.)

Consumers’ bullishness about the stock market also retreated: only 46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead -- the smallest share since April 2024, and down from 54.2% in January. By contrast, 32.8% expected stock prices to decline, up from 24.8% in January. More than half (51.7%) of consumers expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. The share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped further to 24.0% from 27.1% last month.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes continued to recover, likely supported by the very recent decline in mortgage rates. On the other hand, buying plans for cars and big-ticket items were down, with notable declines for TVs and electronics.

Consumers ’ overall intentions to purchase additional services in the months ahead were changed little, but their priorities shifted slightly: personal and health care, as well as movies and live entertainment, moved up the priority list, at the expense of streaming and travel. Vacation plans continued to trend downward..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025:

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• Actual (CFNAI): -0.03

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• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.03

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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
January 2025 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

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Existing Home Sales During January 2025

Existing Home Sales report for January 2025 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month (revised): 4,290,000

• Actual: 4,080,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: -4.9% (-210,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: +2.0% (+80,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,180,000

(+170,000 units [+16.83%] Y-o-Y | 3.5 months supply.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $396,900
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +4.83% (+$18,000)

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==========

• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Mortgage rates, have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge.'

'More housing supply allows strongly qualified buyers to enter the market,' Yun added. 'But for many consumers both increased inventory and lower mortgage rates are necessary for them to purchase a different home or become first-time homeowners.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE (©: NAR®)

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==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

• MORE from the Wall Street Journal.
  

==================

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for February 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for February 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 70.0

• Actual: 64.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -9.76% (-7.0 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -15.86% (-12.2 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for February 2024: 76.9

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumers sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January.

The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth. All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent.

Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023.

While sentiment fell for both Democrats and Independents, it was unchanged for Republicans, reflecting continued disagreements on the consequences of new economic policies.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases.

The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations rose over the course of the month and climbed from 3.2% in January to 3.5% in February. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since May 2021.

For both short- and long-run inflation expectations, this month’s increases were widespread and seen across income and age groups. Inflation expectations rose this month for Independents and Democrats alike; they fell slightly for Republicans..."

=========

  

CHART: Consumer Sentiment Slides Amid Concerns
About Future Inflation - February 2025 FINAL UPDATE

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
==============

Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

==============

• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 214,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 215,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During January 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for January 2025:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,366,000

Month-on-Month Change: -9.83% (-149,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.73% (-10,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,483,000

Month-on-Month Change: +0.067% (+1,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.7%  (-379,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Will Privatizing Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Cause Mortgage Rates to Rise?

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Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: 0.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: -0.883% (-6,447,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During January 2025: 723,853,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +4.2% (+$29,157,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru January 2025
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 213,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.3% (prior = +1.8%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.1% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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